Translated material
Deceptive route
On February 1, the Federation Council of the Russian Federation ratified an agreement with Turkey on the Turkish Stream gas pipeline project
The idea of the agreement was inspired by the long-standing desire of Moscow (represented by Gazprom) to lay a new route for gas supplies to Southern Europe - bypassing Ukraine. Will it just work?
The agreement in question is not even a project, but a promise by the two governments to contribute to its implementation. Before building a gas pipeline, it is necessary to obtain guarantees of the readiness of European consumers to switch to Turkish transit from the current Ukrainian one.
However, neither the absence of such guarantees, nor even a failed assessment of the commercial effectiveness of projects will ever stop the gas monopolist. Gazprom has invested billions in the Sakhalin-Vladivostok pipeline, but it turned out to be practically unnecessary: there is not enough gas from one end, and there is no demand from the other. They are building the "Power of Siberia" for the Chinese, who do not need so much gas, and they are ready to pay a price far below the payback point. There is no consent from the European authorities for the second stage of the Nord Stream, but the infrastructure leading to it is already expanding. Only contractors close to the Kremlin benefit.
With the idea of punishing Ukraine, the same picture. At least $17 billion was invested in the failed South Stream, and now Gazprom is preparing to spend at least $7 billion on the Turkish Stream. One of the four planned gas pipelines across the Black Sea was agreed with the Turks - for 15.75 billion cubic meters per year. This will remove this volume from the Ukrainian route, but will not allow Gazprom to completely abandon the services of Naftogaz Ukrainy: in addition to Turkey, gas must be supplied under contracts to Italy, Greece, and the Balkan countries. There "Gazprom" wants to lay another thread of the "Turkish Stream" through Greece. But another gas pipeline is already being built from Turkey through Greece and Albania to Italy - TANAP / TAP, for the volumes of which contracts have already been signed for gas supplies from Azerbaijan. Moreover, the same pipe "asks" for gas, which can be supplied to Turkey from Iraqi Kurdistan, Iran and, possibly, from Turkmenistan through the Caspian Sea. Gas from Israel is also aimed at the same consumers with a pipeline project through Cyprus.
The competition is serious. And Gazprom's position is weakened by the fact that Europe expects to strengthen its energy security not through new pipelines, but through new suppliers. And Moscow's efforts to replace the Ukrainian route with longer, less fuel-efficient "streams" are met with disbelief there. Assuming, not without reason, that Gazprom in this case does not care about the reliability of supplies, but solely about depriving Kyiv of income from gas transit.
The Ukrainian gas transportation system has never failed the Europeans. All interruptions in supplies occurred at the direction of the Russian leadership. So the threat to the reliability of energy supply in Europe is seen not in the Ukrainian route, but in the unpredictability of the Kremlin. Experience taught.