Translated material
Exprust or war
How will the nationalization of Ukrainian enterprises turn into the self -proclaimed republics of Donbass?
Since March 1, the head of the “LPR” and “DPR” Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky were introduced at the enterprises of Ukrainian jurisdiction located in the Donbass and in Lugansk, “External Management”. In other words, they expropriated them. This action can have much more significant strategic consequences than the next death in the next gangster disassembly of the next car owner, retrained in the Donbass in the Hero of the Republic.
The population of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions before the start of the war was 6.5 million people. Part of the territory of both regions is still under the control of Ukraine. Another one and a half million people left the self -proclaimed republics. Nevertheless, this means that in the territory of “LPR”-“DPR”, one and a half to two million people still live.
They still had exactly three sources to existence. Natural economy, money from Russia and few surviving working enterprises. Basically we are talking about metallurgical plants and coal mines, a significant part of which belongs to oligarch Rinat Akhmetov.
Akhmetov sits in Ukraine, and enterprises are registered there. This is not a matter of ideology, this is a matter of economics. Products of enterprises - metal and coal - are exported, and “LPR” - “DPR” - unrecognized republics. If these enterprises are registered in the “LPR” - “DPR”, no one will buy even a copper bolt from them.
Until now, the situation with the export activities of these enterprises has been painfully reminiscent of a well -known picture of the oil business in a warring Chechnya.
In Chechnya, it seems that everyone shot at all, but the fuel trucks with the left oil through the territory of the warring republic moved with impunity - business. The same in Ukraine.
They shot in Avdeevka, but Ukraine bought Donbass coal all this time, and steel was exported on railways, which sometimes crossed the whimsily wriggling front line dozens of times.
Thus, despite the war, the Ukrainian authorities, in fact, allowed the “LPR” - “DPR” to earn a lot of money, without which these territories could not be maintained.
How could such a position of Ukrainian authorities be explained?
The answer is known to anyone who at least understands something in Ukrainian politics: corruption.
Corruption is the Ukrainian form of democracy. Ukrainian political battles at the top are just a showdown who will get a rollback with, and these disagreements are much more important than any ideology issues: because, you agree, you cannot get a rollback from the import of Donbass coal if your political opponent is already getting a rollback from the import of coal of the South African. Under Yanukovych there was no democracy, but there was a monopoly on kickbacks, and now democracy has reappeared.
And let no one think that I am ironic: we have no such democracy in Russia. We, as with Yanukovych, have a monopoly. In general, all democracy in its origins is precisely what was pluralism in the issue of getting kickbacks.
However, back to the Donbass. So, until recently, the Donbass export was interfered with many reasons: shooting, fleeing at least some qualified personnel and the habit of valiant fighters with Ukrainian fascism to sell all that they can get to a drunken machine gun. However, from Ukraine there were no obstacles to export.
The situation has changed after the fighters of the Aidar and Donbass battalions and Donbass began the blockade of the “LPR” - “DPR”. They demanded that the procurement of coal from Donbass and a complete breakdown of economic ties. In response, Plotnitsky and Zakharchenko announced expropriation.
Strictly speaking,
This means that neither in Europe nor in Ukraine there will no longer be the slightest legal opportunity to purchase something officially produced at the “LPR”-“DPR”.
The consequences of this are difficult to overestimate.
Despite what, as I said, the main reason for maintaining the economic ties between Ukraine and the separatists was the most banal corruption, such ties also had important strategic advantages.
The flow of money, on the one hand, supported the separatists economically. However, he meant the need for at least some connections with Ukraine. Tearing these ties can be extremely dangerous. At one time, President of Georgia Mikhail Saakashvili had to be convinced in his own skin. When he came to power, there was a solid trade between Georgia and Southern Ossetia, and the entire leadership of the republic was powered by smuggling.
Saakashvili blocked smuggling, hoping that the Ossetian elite will have nothing to eat and he will put it on his knees. Instead, South Ossetia completely reoriented to receive Russian money. The only work in South Ossetia was to sit in the trench and fight Georgian fascism. The result was the war of 2008, the ethnic purge of Georgian villages in South Ossetia, and ultimately - the defeat of the Saakashvili party in the elections.
Ukraine is now facing the same dilemma.
If she responds to the expropriation with complete blockade, then this means, roughly speaking, that in the “LPR” - “DPR” there will be nothing to eat.
At all.
The only autochthonous source of the local GNP will be a footsteps: potato-leaf from your own garden. At one time in 1944, Great Britain and the USA, under the influence of Soviet agents, adopted the so -called “Morgentau Plan” is a plan that provided for the complete de -industrialization of Germany and its transformation into an agrarian country. The plan broke only because someone still realized that in the case of the de-industrialization of Germany, its population would not survive elementary.
The ban on export for “LPR” - “DPR” is a plan of Morgentau. This is the transformation of the industrial zone into a delta of the Okavango River, where people survive by natural economy,
The only difference is that in the Okavango River Delta they never built apartment buildings, communications and heating mains, which, in principle, are incompatible with natural economy. This is a return to the Iron Age made of scrap metal and bursting sewer pipes.
To prevent this, the Kremlin has only two options.
The first is to support the Donbass Hamas at your own expense. It is very expensive. This is a bottomless, corrupt and gangster barrel that you will never fill. And the second is to annex Donbass. This is a new round of sanctions, total international isolation and, perhaps, war.