New Unions in New Europe

Will the crisis in the EU make to think about new unions in the east of the continent?

Vitaly Portnikov: Some confusion in the understanding of the future European Union prompts to return to the initiatives and ideas, which have been discussed on the European continent for several years. And one or the other Central European or Eastern European politician acts with proposals related to the ideas of regional cooperation. In fact, they are on the European continent, in any case, in our part of Europe: the same Vsevograd group - Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary.

A new important idea was the Mezumorye project , which has been most actively discussed in the past few years. More recently, it seemed that it was utopia. Today, when the European Union is experiencing not the simplest times, the possibility of such intra -European and even inter European integration with the participation of countries that are not included in the European Union seems more and more real.

Today, the possibility of intra -European integration with the participation of countries that are not included in the European Union seems more and more real

But is it really a reality or science fiction? We will talk about this with our guests - a German political scientist, an expert at the Institute of Euro -Atlantic Cooperation by Andreas Umland and former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, head of the Russian Research Center Vladimir Ogryzko .

Do you imagine a certain union in the framework of the European Union, even in the framework of the interstate association outside Europe, where the interests of Ukraine, Poland, Romania and, perhaps, Balkan countries will coincide? Will it be some kind of parallel Europe? After all, Germany is the locomotive of the European Union that is, and not the European Union, which we are talking about now as the prospect.

Andreas Mondoland: I think it is worth talking about it. Other options seem even less likely to me. I do not consider the "Mezumorye" an ideal solution. But it so happened that the process of Ukraine entering the European Union and NATO will last for some time. There is light with the European Union at the end of the tunnel, because it is necessary to implement an association agreement. If this is done, I think the European Union will no longer be able to refuse Ukraine, because the agreement on the European Union records that every European country has the opportunity to enter or at least submit an application for the entry. But with NATO now, it seems to me, there is a kind of impasse, because while Ukraine is conducting this conflict with Russia, in the North Atlantic Council there are always several Western European countries that will oppose its entry.

There is a third alternative option-this is a special agreement with the United States or something based on the Budapest memorandum . Since the USA is now an unpredictable president is still unknown as much as possible. Regional cooperation remains, and I do not think that it should concern economic or infrastructure issues: they are resolved through an association agreement, and this cooperation should concern security issues and military cooperation, cooperation in a hybrid war against Russia. In my opinion, this is possible, because not only Ukraine, but also Georgia, and, probably, Moldova have interest in this.

I do not consider the "Mezumorye" an ideal solution

I think in countries such as Romania or Poland there is its own indigenous national interest in the stability of the Ukrainian state. After all, if the Ukrainian state is unstable or in the worst case, then this will have a direct impact on the safety of countries such as Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary. There are certain sympathies from these countries, as well as some Baltic countries.

I think that all this could ultimately become the basis for a certain agreement or at least closer cooperation in this space between the Baltic and Black Sea.

Vitaly Portnikov: Ukraine really needs such an association that, in fact, can close her real road to the European Union? They will say: you already live in alliance with your neighbors, and why do you need to go where you are not waiting for you and so. And in Russia it will raise questions. And so there is a certain alliance with those who are, and an alliance with those who do not, relatively speaking, sit in it and do not fool our heads. A great answer from our German or French neighbors on the continent ...

Each country, before joining some union, has some kind of interest

Vladimir Ogryzko: These are really interesting ideas. They are already talking about since the beginning of the twentieth century, this is the topic of yesterday or the day before yesterday. It’s just that every historical era brings some new thoughts about this. Each country, before joining some kind of union, has some kind of interest.

Let's see what can be the key interest of Ukraine today, when we are talking about some unions. It is clear with the European Union: we want to become part of civilized Europe, trade, live and prosper, as other countries of the European Union do. Can the "Mezumorye" in this sense become an alternative to the European Union? I'm afraid to take such responsibility, but most likely not. Let's take the issue of safety and what is called military cooperation - today there is no more effective collective security system than NATO, and this is an obvious fact. And if you pose a question: what will Ukraine really get from such a unification of states, then I absolutely agree with you: sit and be silent, you are already there, nothing else needs.

I do not think that this is exactly what will really be for Ukraine an answer to those economic, political and military requests and goals that it sets for herself. This may be a regional association, which does not provide a final solution to the security issue in the east of Europe. If so, then for God's sake; You yourself called the Vsegrad four, it exists within the framework of two associations - the European Union and NATO. Of course, it is possible to unite countries from the Baltic to the Black Sea for closer cooperation in certain issues. Why not? For God's sake.

But if we compare the participants, then, on the one hand, we have EU and NATO members who resolved economic issues and political security issues, and on the other hand, we will most likely have Ukraine and Georgia, and once, under a big issue, Belarus. We again have something like the first and second class, and this, in my opinion, is especially not necessary for Ukraine. As an additional regional tool that can help these countries quickly join two key structures - yes, but as an end in itself and as an ersatz -zamen - in my opinion, there is no much sense in this.

While Ukraine is conducting this conflict with Russia, there will always be several Western European countries in NATO, which will oppose its entry

Andreas Mondoland: I partially agree. I also think that alternative systems, the European Union and NATO are better. But you need to do something during the transition period until Ukraine enters there. The goal, of course, is the entry into one or another organization. I think this will not happen in ten years.

Of course, I do not see the “Mezumorye”, as the party “National Corps” and the Azov Regiment represent it. They also have the idea of “Mezumorye”, but this is the “Mezumorye” - an alternative to the European Union, anti -Russian, anti -Western and anti -liberal, and this is completely different. “Meusmory”, it seems to me, does not belong to the historical “Meusmory”, which arose as an idea, because Poland after the First World War was also in a certain “gray” zone in which Ukraine is located today. In response to this “gray” zone, Poland proposed this association - the “Mezumorye”, which then, unfortunately, did not take place. If then the idea with the “Mezumorye” would have taken place, maybe there would be no Second World War. But this was not some kind of ideological project, it was rather a kind of answer to the state of the "gray" zone.

Andreas Minland

For the same reason, I would like to separate the idea of “Mezumorye” as an alliance of security or military cooperation from those interior ideas that are within the European Union. The Vygradsky group ... There is such an Adriata, the Baltic-Black Sea initiative of the Croatian President, there is a Via Carpatia transport corridor-this is also usually associated with the “Mezumorye”, but it seems to me that it does not apply to the historical “Network” because it is the cooperation of those countries that have already solved their safety problem, that is, these are some structures that lobbying their interests within NATO and the European Union. But this does not apply to the basic interests of security that Poland had after the First World War, and to those that Ukraine, Georgia and probably Moldova have today.

By the way, there is already a model of such an agreement - this is an agreement between Turkey and Azerbaijan of 2010 on strategic partnership. The second article refers to military cooperation between Turkey and Azerbaijan. It is interesting here that Türkiye is still, at least, a member of NATO, and Azerbaijan is a member of the eastern partnership of the European Union. Azerbaijan in this capacity is similar to Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova. That is, Turkey has already crossed the Red line, as a member of NATO, she gave not just assurance of security, as in the Budapest memorandum, but guarantees: Turkey will help Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan will help Turkey, although maybe Turkey is not so necessary.

Countries that are not related to this idea of the “Mezumorye” ... Although who knows: if Turkey is again in the conflict with Russia, maybe it can even be imagined that it could enter such a structure (and Azerbaijan too).

Poland and Romania have fundamental interest in the stability of Ukraine

But that is not the point. It seems to me that the most important thing is that we already have a certain legal model that Poland or Romania could do. Not because they are so friends with Ukraine (Romania is not very friends with her); I think they just have fundamental interest in the stability of Ukraine. After all, if there is instability, or something happens to atomic power plants, then there will be refugees. I think it is necessary to explain to the Slovak, Romanian and Polish partners, that such cooperation is beneficial for them.

Vitaly Portnikov: You say that Ukraine’s partners should be interested in its stability. And it seems to me that Ukrainian partners in Europe are divided into two categories. One part of the partners believes that the stability of Ukraine should be provided with Western efforts: rather, American or German. By the way, in many ways in Warsaw and Bucharest they would like the West to ensure this stability. And the other part of the partners (those that should ensure Ukrainian security, from the point of view of Eastern European countries) expect that the security of Ukraine can guarantee Russia (there are such politicians). Then the question arises: where are the countries of Eastern Europe? They were lost here because no one expects from them an understanding that they should be interested in the safety of Ukraine.

Vladimir Ogryzko: This is true. And you and Andreas correctly say that these countries with which we are directly adjacent to the West see a pillow of safety in us, that is, a buffer between a normal civilized world and not very civilized Russia. Of course, a large, stable and strong Ukraine is a guarantee that everything will be fine with them. The thesis is known that without independent Ukraine there will be no independent Poland, and vice versa. Therefore, it is obvious: for them, the independence of Ukraine is a guarantee of their own security, even if they are under the umbrella of NATO, which sometimes, as we see, is somewhat proceeding. Now he is intensively flies up, they say that everything will be fine, but the fears remain. It is better to have the nearest lamp of the Russian border service for 900 kilometers than immediately in front of the house, so their interest is obvious.

Our neighbors in the West see in us a buffer between a normal civilized world and not very civilized Russia

How does those countries that can ensure security relate to this? In my opinion, after all the events that have occurred over the past three years, even among very ardent fans of Moscow, the illusion that Putin can provide something, begin to disappear more and more. This is a good sign for us. I really hope that what Andreas spoke about Turkey and Azerbaijan should, in the end, before Ukraine entered the NATO to transform into an agreement between the USA and Ukraine, Britain and Ukraine, France and Ukraine in security issues.

Vitaly Portnikov: Why France? And where is Germany then?

Vladimir Ogryzko: The guarantors of the Budapest memorandum ... This would be a logical laying of safety until we become full -term NATO members. If by 2020 we will fulfill a fairly ambitious plan, then Ukraine will be able to say that it came close to NATO criteria (the issue is also open regarding the EU). Then security issues would play a little differently, and we could return to the topic of “Mezumorye”, but already in a slightly different configuration, being inside the situation, and not outside.

Vladimir Ogryzko

Vitaly Portnikov: Andreas, I am interested in your construction Turkey-Azerbaijan. I'm trying to understand where Ukraine look for its Turkey, what kind of country is Poland, Germany?

Andreas Minland: Most likely, this is Poland. Obviously, there is a kind of cultural proximity, mutual interest.

Vitaly Portnikov: Turkey is ready to go to such guarantees for Azerbaijan. And Poland for Ukraine?

Andreas Modland: There are people who talk about it. In the summer in Warsaw there will be a conference on this subject. But there are those who, for various reasons, do not want this, fearing that this will, for example, complicate the position of Poland inside NATO, and the guarantees that NATO gives will be weakened if they go beyond Ukraine.

Once Germany was very interested in Poland to become part of NATO, as she also wanted to have this buffer

The own interests of Poland matter here. After all, if you build any apocalyptic scenarios, then NATO will not be able to protect anyone, for example, from a large flow of refugees from Ukraine. If 20% of the Ukrainian population decides to leave the country, then these are 9 million people, and where will they live, who will feed them?

Once Germany was very interested in becoming Poland to become part of NATO, as she also wanted to have this buffer. And this is not because the Germans loved the Poles so much. It was just her own interest that this country was in NATO. The same Poles and Romanians need the same. In Poland, at least they talk about this, but in Romania they seem to live on another planet. The same can be said about the Slovaks and Hungarian. They simply do not discuss this and think that it will not affect them, although everything is very close, and if there is something catastrophic in Ukraine ...

Vitaly Portnikov: This would mean the global destabilization of Central Europe.

Andreas Modland: You need to play, then, probably, this is possible. I think from these countries it would be foolish not to do this.

The thesis is known that without independent Ukraine there will be no independent Poland, and vice versa

Vladimir Ogryzko: It seems to me that Poland could take a step that Turkey about Azerbaijan took, on one condition: if those countries that gave us guarantees based on the Budapest memorandum said: ok, we also think about it. Of course, it would be very nice if we really had the same agreements with the United States of America that the United States have from one and a half dozen countries, ensuring security. If this took place (and I, while still a minister, very insisted on this option after the decision of the NATO summit in Bucharest), if we returned to this topic and realized it, then what we are talking about today would become a completely normal reality.

Andreas Mondoland: I would only support this. Of course, if you get some agreements with the United States and Great Britain, which signed the Budapest Memorandum, as well as with France, which gave some assurances, and maybe with China, which also transferred the declaration of Ukraine, this is probably even better, because these are large countries that have nuclear weapons. I think one thing does not exclude the other: joining the EU, joining NATO, concluding bilateral agreements and the “Mezumorye” - this should all go in parallel. In my opinion, the “Meusmory” of these four options is now the most real.

However, there can be anything with the United States: a Pro -Putin line is possible there, and a pro -Ukrainian line is possible, since Trump is a white sheet, and you can write what you want. I think that in his environment there are people who would like to return to the Budapest memorandum and say: we will conclude the same agreement as, say, with South Korea. It would be perfect, something even better than NATO.

NATO chief actor is the USA

The main actor in NATO is the United States; If there is direct contact with the United States, it will only be better. What to do if this is not? Maybe negotiate with the British, with Canadians ... you need to attract everyone.

Виталий Портников: Вы чертите эти апокалиптические картины: что могло бы быть, если бы Украина дестабилизировалась… Понятно, что Европа не могла бы позволить себе это. Все это было бы логично и вразумительно, если бы мы с вами не пережили сирийскую катастрофу, в начале которой тоже все говорили: Европа не может позволить себе миграционный кризис, она обязательно найдет решение, остановит Россию и Иран, потому что иначе тысячи людей хлынут на Европейский континент, и будет катастрофа. Но мы увидели эту катастрофу, теперь мы фактически живем в ней. Понадобились какие-то совершенно беспрецедентные усилия канцлера Меркель, чтобы это остановить. И теперь это держится только на доброй воле все той же Турции, а иначе неизвестно, кто сейчас правил бы в Европе и какая там была бы ситуация.

Владимир Огрызко: Абсолютно правильно. Мы понимаем, что если идти дальше таким путем, то это действительно будет катастрофа для всей Европы. Если несколько миллионов украинцев вдруг развернутся в западном направлении, это будет значительно серьезнее, чем все то, что мы имеем сегодня. Я верю, что на белом листе, находящемся сегодня у нас перед глазами, будут писать более-менее адекватные писатели, которые смогут, по крайней мере, объяснить, что такое белое и что такое черное.

Я, кстати, очень надеюсь на визит нашего президента, который должен состояться в ближайшем будущем, с тем, чтобы этот лист начал заполняться относительно украинского досье, по крайней мере, теми данными, которые необходимо знать. Они уже, безусловно, есть, но в прямом контакте очень важно донести ту информацию, которая тебе нужна, непосредственно до руководителя другого государства. И мы должны сделать выводы из этой действительно сложной, местами даже катастрофической ситуации.

В случае украинской дестабилизации потоки беженцев пошли бы не только на Запад, но и на Восток

​ Виталий Портников: Не стоит забывать, что в случае украинской дестабилизации потоки беженцев пошли бы не только на Запад, но и на Восток. И тогда мы имели бы не только дестабилизацию Европы, но и дестабилизацию России. Я считаю, что в украинской дестабилизации не должен быть заинтересован ни один человек, находящийся в здравом уме и твердой памяти. Но, к сожалению, мы живем в мире, где осталось не так много политиков в здравом уме и твердой памяти, которым можно было бы это объяснить.