Erdogan threatens to "arrange a riot in Germany"

In Turkey, before the referendum under the Constitution, the authorities rely on nationalism

A little more and it seems that in Turkey they will completely ban the word “no”. At least for the next month until April 16, when a referendum on constitutional reform, which gives the president of the country by sole authorities, will be held.

The fact is that in the voting ballot there are answers on the simple formula “yes-no”. Opponents of the reform, deprived of access to the media, everywhere launched street agitation, offering fellow citizens to say their “no” aspirations of Erdogan to receive authoritarian powers to regulate the state.

In response, the ruling party of justice and development (PSR) fired a real struggle against the use of a negative particle of speech in various spheres of public life. The municipal authorities of the Million City of Kodzhaeli completely reprinted the forms of accounts for water, where before that there was a call “there is no overspending of water resources”, replacing it with a more streamlined wording with a request for an economical consumption of natural wealth.

In February, in many places of Turkey, the authorities seized an antinicotine brochure, in which there was a proposal “who says no,” comes correctly. ” The circulation of the brochure was several hundred thousand copies.

One of the Turkish cable television channels closed access to the art tape in his film with the short name “No”, telling about the 1988 Chilean protest movement against General Pinochet. In recent weeks, according to the local press, requests for watching the film set a record, turning it into a real hit of the season.

It was possible to calculate these lexical exercises of Turkish politicians with curiol. However, it is not at all obvious that the outcome of the referendum is clearly a foregone conclusion in favor of Erdogan. The surveys of public opinion conducted over the past month showed an approximate equilibrium of forces between supporters and opponents of strong presidential power.

Also against Erdogan plays a completely noble situation in the economy. Inflation in February amounted to more than ten percent. Due to the investment crisis in construction and problems in the tourism business, unemployment exceeded 12%. Continues to fall the course of the national currency.

In order to somehow correct the sad economic picture, the official authorities changed the methodology of statistical analysis. If earlier the general state of the economy was evaluated by objective data provided by the leading Turkish firms and enterprises, then since January, statistics receive information exclusively from the Ministry of Finance and other state bodies.

This adjustment instantly improved the main economic indicators by 20%, but did not add to the Turks of social optimism in real life. Therefore, to raise the patriotic spirit of the population, a propaganda machine was launched at full power, which required the image of an external enemy to strengthen the nationalist mood. Germany was assigned to this role.

In Ankara, fearing the unpredictable result of the April plebiscite, they are very counted on the voices of the foreign diaspora, primarily German. Indeed, in Germany there are more than 1.4 million Turkish voters, with whom constant work is carried out directly and through family ties.

During the former large election campaigns, the visits of leading Turkish politicians and government officials to German land became common practice. In 2014, Erdogan himself agitated ethnic Turks in Germany to vote for him in the presidential election. The official Berlin did not mind this.

Since then, the degree of Turkish-German relations has steadily decreased. The German public did not remain indifferent to strengthening authoritarianism in Turkey. Press, television, deputies and representatives of the creative intelligentsia acutely reacted to every new restriction of democratic rights and freedoms. A great resonance was caused by information that the Turkish intelligence services are collecting information in Germany on the opposition regime of Ankara of figures through local Muslim communities.

Erdogan responded with judicial claims against critics in Germany, demanded that Berlin come up with too “unbelted scribblers”. Ankara annulled the accreditation of German journalists, closed the entrance to the country of the Bundestag deputies and government officials, as it was in 2016 after the adoption of the Armenian genocide resolution.

The new round of exacerbation coincided in time with the beginning of the campaign by referendum. The reason was the arrest of the correspondent of the Die Welt publication in Turkey Denise Yudzhel.

The ethnic Turks born in Germany Eugel has, along with German, Turkish citizenship also has Turkish. In his publications, he repeatedly criticized Erdogan's policy. And the authorities have long sharpened the tooth on a German journalist. Their patience came to an end when Eugel dared to touch the son -in -law of President Barat Albayrak, who serves as the Minister of Energy.

In his article, the German correspondent quoted the electronic correspondence of Albayrak, in which he gave instructions to establish more rigid control over the media in preparation for a referendum. The minister himself hacked the e-mail of hackers and placed in the public domain.

Now Eugene, accused of propaganda of terrorism (interviewed the militants of the Kurdistan Workers' Party) and inciting ethnic enmity, threatens a solid prison term. In the German media, a wave of protest rose against the arbitrariness of the Turkish authorities. Politicians also spoke about the inadmissibility of such grave charges against a German citizen. Chancellor Angela Merkel, in an interview with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, expressed hope for an objective and fair investigation.

The mild reaction of the head of the Government of Germany caused discontent to the public and representatives of the opposition political parties. They accused the Chancellor of the absence of the will to demand the immediate liberation of the journalist due to the reluctance to quarrel with the President of Turkey, since then under the blow, a well-known agreement on Syrian refugees will be, the gap of which Erdogan regularly threatens with the next tension of relations with the EU.

Nevertheless, in Germany they found how to answer the arrest of Judley. A number of Turkish ministers planned meetings with supporters of Erdogan among German Turks. Thus, in particular, it was assumed that the Minister of Justice would speak to compatriots in the small town of Gaggenau in the land of Baden-Württemberg, the Minister of Economics-in Cologne and the Minister of Foreign Affairs in Hamburg. What is characteristic, in each case, it was not about any thousands of rallies-only 200-300 participants.

The communal authorities of the three cities alternately denied Turkish politicians to conduct events. Reasons - safety problems, lack of parking spaces for a car, a fire hazardous condition of the room. At the same time, the official Berlin emphasized that he had nothing to do with refusals - the commune, they say, are completely independent and decide what to do in such cases.

In Ankara, they seemed to be waiting for such an answer. Erdogan at the next rally in Istanbul, comparing the current actions of the German authorities with the practice of National Socialism, accused Germany of complete absence of democracy and the support of terrorism in the person of Kurdish separatists. And Judgela called the journalist a “spy”, which was specially sent for subversive activities.

But on this, the Turkish president did not stop and emotionally stated: “I want, I’ll go [to Germany] tomorrow. I’ll come, and if they don’t let me in or allow me to speak, I will arrange a rebellion for them. ”

Undoubtedly, international observers believe that the rate made by Erdogan on nationalism and the indicative quarrel with “hostile” Germany will bring him some additional votes in the referendum. And in the case of victory, one should expect further strengthening not only anti -Western rhetoric, but also real changes in the foreign policy orientation of Turkey.

This is evidenced by a demonstrative rapprochement with Moscow, which was not prevented by the incident with the death of Turkish troops as a result of erroneous shelling by Russian aircraft. Ankara continues to play the Chinese map, hoping to become the Peking’s supporting base in the Middle East during the implementation of the Global Silk Road project.

The question remains open: what will Erdogan do if the referendum loses?