We are more often joking about the thaw, well, it is understandable-this is not so much political reality as an anecdote and imitation, and no one seriously believes in the possibility of voluntary self-summoning the system, its abandonment of their most odious features and transformation into something less wild than its current state.
No one believes-but tell Dadin, the Chuderovets and Sevastidi, the three most famous prisoners of the last time, within some week consistently freed from prisons. Yes, obviously, this is also an imitation, but the release is real, that is, three real people were first in prison, and then they were free.
Here we encounter already less anecdotal than the eternal expectation of a thaw, the property of the system - she has repeatedly shown her freedom from any dogmas and constant, she is quite flexible and is always ready, if necessary, to go to the most unexpected steps, so that, losing in a small one, to preserve itself. Your wealth, your strength, your ability to self -make, leaving all its basic properties at each particular moment unchanged.
Now, as we see, for some reason (there are no visible reasons, no) the system again wanted to pretend that it is humanized, goes towards people, ceases to be completely cannibal. Three famous liberated are not all the news of the last time. The feminists from the Kremlin were released without a protocol, congratulating on March 8, the radicals from the NOD are criticized at a quite official level, the front -line humor of the Medvedev times are returned to television, Poklonskaya with her crying bust was put up with a laughing stock, or it will still be.
There can be only one step convincing now - the rejection of Putin
Either it will still be, but we still won’t believe it, because we have long been used to understanding that the system is not capable of anything other than imitation and that each weakened nut after a short time will always be twisted with renewed vigor. We understand this, and the system understands that we understand this, but it is cunning, it is never repeated and each time finds a way to lead itself in such a way that, preserved in a constant form, you will like even those who do not believe it.
And if for some reason now she was again faced with the need to like, if she is ready to play a thaw, then it is time to give her a hint-there is at least one action that, no matter how imitating it may be the most powerful impression even on the most radical skeptics.
The liberation of the prisoners, the mitigation of laws, the public pulling the most odious radicals is all unconvincing. If the system wants us to believe or at least pretend that we believe, let it pass Putin.
The system has a year to avoid Putin's nomination for the next term
This is not as difficult as it might seem at first glance. No coups or tribunals are needed, everything can be culturally and polite. A year later, formal presidential elections were scheduled in Russia (formal ones - because it is clear to everyone that the issue of power is not being resolved), and the system has a year to avoid Putin’s nomination for the next term. No loud words, nor accusations, no curses - let us not hear anything at all and will not recognize. It’s just for some reason that he does not want to advance and quietly then disappears behind the fence of any of his residences.
We know that the system knows how to hand over its governors, ministers, colonels, generals, but the bets are increasing every year, and it would be time to learn how to hand over her first person. He is aging, he is capricious and unpredictable, he often threatens the well -being of the system with his actions. Let them think there on different floors of their towers think if it will be better to go further without him - perhaps this will be more profitable for everyone. For the power and bureaucratic estate, for state business, for the media and cultural elite, which, obviously, is also not very delighted that she has to sing the first person more and more actively every day. If they decide to play in the thaw, let them play, but let them play convincingly, and only one step can be convincing now - the abandonment of Putin.
The word "thaw" is now fashionable to use with the epithet "Kirienkovskaya"; It is generally accepted that Sergei Kiriyenko is called to the Kremlin to ensure controlled liberalization. So let it provide, he is also a methodologist, in the end, and you can talk anything about the methodologists, except that they are sentimental. Kiriyenko is not sentimental, and if Putin himself brought him to the Kremlin now, then this also does not matter (in the end, he brought him to the government, and how did it help Nemtsov?). Let Kiriyenko become the person who will find the most convincing words to explain to Putin that his time has passed.
There really is nothing fantastic. They can do everything perfectly without him, even those who owe their wealth and position to him - on the contrary, maybe they should be interested in getting rid of Putin at the very first time, because today they are all from Rotenberg to Dyumin, only his people, and tomorrow, without him, independent players. Today he can take everything away from them. Without it, they will become more protected.
The abandonment of Putin will give Russia so the operational spaciousness in foreign policy now necessary for her now
Everyone remembers how the replacement of the president in 1999 stabilized the political system with lightning speed. It turned out that a significant part of its instability is due to the personal features and conflicts of the former first person. Yeltsin left, and it immediately turned out that both Shaimiev were not a separatist, and Zyuganov was not an oppositionist, and Berezovsky was not a gray cardinal. Everything worked out instantly, and threatening Yeltsin with the fate of Chaushesko Boos in the changed reality became the loyal Kaliningrad governor. The rejection of Putin will immediately remove all existing contradictions. It turns out that the most implacable opponents of the authorities fenced only the Putin personality from her loyalty, and they will be ready to swear any other first person without looking. The abandonment of Putin will give Russia so the operational spacious in foreign policy now, all the nodes tied to Putin will be instantly chopped, all the contradictions will be reset, the atmosphere of hatred will shed with warm rain.
This is not a forecast or public advice to Putin's elites. There is no doubt that they themselves have been thinking about it for a long time - that's all. Now, on the centenary of the revolutionary February, it's time to cheer up the doubters and tell them so that they would not worry and boldly get rid of Putin - this will be a real thaw, from which everyone will become better.
Oleg Kashin - journalist
Opinions expressed under the heading "Law" may not reflect the point of view of the Radio Liberty editorial