Kim Jong -un prepares a nuclear blow

Judging by how much attention the world press pays the relations of the administration of Trump and Russia, the conclusion is inevitable that the American-Russian direction is the most important in modern international politics. If we take, however, another criterion - which region of the world is fraught with the greatest risks of a large war? - That will be completely different: not Europe and not the Middle East, but the Korean Peninsula, the northern part of it. There, Kim Jong -un, the gross provocations repair: from volley missile shooting in the Japanese Sea to the murder of the leader’s consolidated brother in Malaysia.

At the meeting of Obama and Trump, who took place shortly after the November elections, the current president called the successor a country that will most likely cause him the greatest troubles. For several months, Trump was concealed the name of the state-impressive state, apparently wanting to choose the enemies and enemies of America without a hint on his own. Now he revealed the name named Obama, this is North Korea. And it does not seem that he intends to dispute the characteristics given to her by the predecessor.

The Korean peninsula was the main direction of the first foreign trip, which was made by the Cabinet of Ministers of Trump, the pentagon chief James Mattis. A week later, the State Secretary of Rex Tillerson is sent to the same lands. And for the same purpose: to assure South Korea and Japan in the inviolability of the US obligations to protect them from the attacks of the aggressor, that is, North Korea. Ideally, Tillerson would also like to persuade China to more decisive steps to smash his obstinate neighbor.

In the past, the American military hinted that in an emergency they attack atomic and missile production in the DPRK

The steps taken by Beijing to date, for example, the suspension of the import of North Korean coal, seem inadequate to Washington. “We are considering different opportunities,” said the press secretary of the State Department. Among them: tightening trade and financial pressure to North Korea or returning it to the list of terror sponsors, from which it was removed in 2008 by Bush Jr. in a vain attempt to get the obligation to dismantle the Plutonium reactor in Yonben. In the past, the American military hinted that in an emergency they attack atomic and missile production in the DPRK.

In the situation, an extremely dangerous, but still not emergency, the international community does not know what to do with the outrage of calmness. Last Wednesday, the UN Security Council at an extraordinary meeting condemned North Korea for testing four medium -range missiles, but did not announce additional repression. From the point of view of China, the current regime in Pyongyang is better than chaos, which will inevitably arise on the peninsula in case of its fall.

The stubborn turtle, who decided to participate in the race, eventually reaches the finish line. If it is not stopped

The US bet on a patient strategy based on the assumption that the DPRK will collapse under the weight of accumulating unresolved intra -economic problems, did not justify itself. How did not work the tricks of the Obama administration in the case of the DPRK tactically successful hacker sorties that slowed down the Iranian missile and nuclear development. North Korea is not a leader in the field of high technology, stabilization of a ballistic missile at the entrance to the dense layers of the atmosphere and miniaturization of warheads are thin, so military construction on the basis of Chuchha is moving with a great creak. Nevertheless, no one canceled the ancient wisdom that the stubborn turtle, who decided to participate in the race, eventually reaches the finish line. If it is not stopped.

The usual Armed Forces of the DPRK, due to the general economic degradation of the country, cause today its opponents much less concerns than in the past. Rockets and atom are the means by which the poor North Korea hopes to maintain military power. Monday missiles covered about a thousand kilometers and fell near the shores of Japan within its exceptional economic zone. On Wednesday, the United States began deploying in South Korea elements of missile defense.

According to a number of analysts, the last North Korean shooting are not strictly speaking, tests: the involved missiles have been tested repeatedly in the past, and Pyongyang knows that they work. Therefore, it is more correct to talk not about tests, but about military exercises: the DPRK missile troops worked out the tactics for applying a nuclear strike on, as stated, American anti -missile systems in Japan and South Korea in case Washington and Seoul under the cover of their current military maneuvers will take the invasion of the north.

It’s more correct to talk not about trials, but about military exercises

The conclusion that Washington and Seoul made of this is not so amazing: the optimal way to protect your OK complexes from North Korean volley fire is to multiply their number. Radio Liberty is discussing the current situation with an expert in Korea from Stanford University Daniel Snyder:

- The decision on the deployment of OP elements in South Korea does not belong to the Trump administration. More precisely, Trump in response to missile volleys from the north gave the final good to this step, but he was worked out for a long time and deeply the Obama administration.

- The decision to start the deployment of the radar station was made in Washington or in Seoul?

- In both capitals. In South Korea, the Provisional Government is in power. Now, after the Constitutional Court has confirmed the legality of the impeachment of President Pak Kyn Hye, the election of a new head of state should take place within two months. They can bring victory to the candidate of the left camp, and therefore, conservatives, presumably, could rush with the start of the implementation of the Pro project, since the left are tuned much more peacefully to the north and sensitively listens to Beijing's complaints that, they say, America is expanding its military presence in the region in excess. Beijing reinforces his complaints with a boycott of South Korean goods and the suspension of cultural exchanges, and the left are not at all indifferent to this. If the left candidate wins, he theoretically will be able to cancel the decision on the deployment of radar and the missile battery. Both of these elements are mobile, and their removal from combat duty is a matter of politically less delicate than the dismantling of stationary components. So, I repeat, it is possible that the uncertain political situation forced the conservatives to rush.

- For the American administration, it seems to me, this decision was simpler than for Seoul.

Why does Peking not ask North Korea to suspend his military exercises for a while?

- Undoubtedly. In fact, there were no alternatives at the White House. He did not agree to the Chinese proposal that North Korea was freezing his missile launches and nuclear trials, and Seoul and Washington are suspended annual planned joint military exercises. These are things that are completely incomparable in the sense of the ability to blow up the current balance of power and provoke a war. In addition, we have a very sad experience with such a scheme that was tested in the 90s by Clinton, and in the next decade-Bush Jr.. Its result is well known to everyone. And why does Peking not ask North Korea to suspend his military exercises for a while?

Moreover, if Beijing is really so alarmed by American missile defense systems, then the best way to remove them from the peninsula is to convince North Korea to stop increasing his missile and nuclear potential. And with all its unpredictability, Pyongyang will not begin the war in response to the deployment of the radar and the batteries of the anti -ray, systems of purely defensive, not offensive.

-China’s military-technical objections against the pro located in South Korea are reduced, by and large, to the fact that in the future, in combination with other elements of American Pro, the United States will improve observation of military events in the PRC in Japan and other points of the globe and will therefore be able to more effectively reflect its missile response to American nuclear aggression. Say, due to the rapid reduction of the means of intercepting the Chinese missiles in the overclocking section of their trajectory, rather than marching. Do you think Russia's objections to American Pro in East Asia are based on similar logic?

“I see at least three points here.” The first: American Pro in Asia is a logical continuation and addition to Russia to a similar system deployed in Eastern Europe, the purpose of which, according to the official position of the Kremlin, neutralize the Russian arsenal of nuclear deterrence.

Today, Russia is solidarized with China, placing an equal sign between American and North Korean nuclear arsenals as a threat to the universal world

The second point is solidarity with China, some kind of ally. And the third: reflex anti -Americanism, characterizing Russian foreign policy in recent years. I remember the time when Russia shared the concern of the United States with the spread of weapons of mass defeat and was solidarized with America in matters belonging to the North Korean atom, within the framework of six -way negotiations on the nuclear problem of the DPRK. This has been inactive since 2008, and today Russia has been in solidarizes with China, placing an equal sign between the American and North Korean nuclear arsenals as a threat to the general world.

-American Pro is, from the perspective of Russia, an absolute evil, or could Moscow still find something positive for itself if desired?

- The pro is the smallest of all possible weapons evils. I believe that Russia is interested in maintaining peace on the Korean Peninsula, and this goal will contribute to the missile defense better than the rate of America to suppress North Korean nuclear means entirely due to its strategic offensive weapons. So for Russia there is a certain plus in American missile defense. As for the strategic nuclear weapons of Russia, in the Far East it is located in submarines, and the unfolding American about him there is no danger, ”said the expert on Korea from Stanford University Daniel Snyder .