The coffin of the loot

The demarcation line between the main territory of Ukraine and the LDNR becomes similar to the border between South and North Korea. On March 13, the head of the DPR Zakharchenko signed a decree on the introduction of a border regime, which provides for the pass of citizens only through border posts with mandatory registration. On March 15, President of Ukraine Poroshenko announced the breakdown of the message with the "republics" until the control of enterprises under Ukrainian jurisdiction will be returned to the owners. At the same time, Ukrainian law enforcement agencies removed activists who blocked the message by force, demanding to free the prisoners of war held by separatists. The actions of these activists were the reason for the introduction of "external management" at Ukrainian enterprises.

However, you can’t unfold the situation - after all, it was created in the confrontation of Kyiv not with Donetsk, but with Moscow. Here is the decision on the actual confiscation of the largest factories and mines and their transfer to the management of the adventurer and oligarch from the family Yanukovych Sergey Kurchenko was accepted in Moscow. As it became known from Zakharchenko’s conversation intercepted by the SBU with one of his Moscow curators, the authorities of the DPR could only fulfill the order and beg so that part of the seized would go to them.

Obviously, behind all these battles is the desire of the parties to make each other painfully, not moving on to large -scale military operations. Poroshenko, suspecting that after Trump came to power in America, Putin could simply “pick up the Donbass,” sought to aggravate the conflict around the territory. Moscow was clearly about to pre -agree on this with Trump, but did not have time. The decision to "pick up enterprises" was Putin's spontaneous. But its consequences can be beneficial for Kyiv and are extremely painful for the population of the occupied region.

Enterprises managed by Ukrainian owners were the basis of the economy of the region. These are the largest plants and mines there, despite the fact that there is no other serious economy in the occupied part of Donbass. About 250 thousand miners and metallurgists working on them received salaries from Ukraine, spent it in stores and in the markets, fed their families. Due to the redistribution of the funds they spent, the social sphere was partially supported, officials and small business were fed - that is, at least half of the enclave population was financed, and a richer one. The rest was paid for by Russia, financing the army, law enforcement agencies and part of the social sphere - pensioners, teachers. Small enterprises could not provide work for a long time.

The idea to transfer the enterprises under Kurchenko’s control and reoriented the supply of coal and metal to Russia could only be born among those who expect to snatch the Kush from “temporary management”, and then “cutting for metal” of the remaining enterprises.

Ukraine will quickly block any deliveries from these enterprises to the EU countries, and also achieve sanctions against those Russian companies that will become their partners. That is why the initial plans for sending coal to the Lipetsk Metallurgical Plant quickly melted in the air. It will not work to sell everything on the domestic Russian market either - for this, Russian enterprises must provide a market niche, and it is impossible to free it, by increasing deliveries to the EU, due to the quotas system. Search for new markets is a long and difficult matter.

Thus, the upcoming fate of the seized enterprises is death under an autogen. The prospect of their employees is unemployment. Metinvest Rinat Akhmetov has already stated that he was ready to provide employees with places at their enterprises located in the Ukrainian territory itself. There are many of them, but they are unlikely to accommodate all. So the acute social crisis in the LDNR is inevitable. Of course, the authorities of Russia and the "republics" will try to mitigate it if possible. Moscow will have to pay for additional benefits and expand the states of the LDNR armed groups in order to repay dissatisfaction.

Already now it is clear where the matter is moving in the strategic perspective. If we compare the LDNR with other pro -Russian enclaves in the territory of the former USSR, we can say with confidence: there will be no Transnistria. The main industrial enterprises of the PMR are registered as Moldovan and exist exclusively in this legal field. The LDNR industry, withdrawn from the Ukrainian legal field, is doomed to death, the population - to poverty and inevitable migration from the extinct region, where only military, police and pensioners on Russian allowance will be relatively good. Examples here may be Abkhazia, whose population decreased from 525 thousand people in 1989 to 170 thousand (according to the Georgian authorities), and South Ossetia where the number of inhabitants also fell three times - from 98 thousand in 1989 to no more than 35 thousand (according to researchers and recognition of officials).

Thus, the fate of the once rich Donetsk region seems sad. Normal work - no, a normal state - no, normal social security - no, there are no prospects. There are criminal groups in power, the collection of "gifts of nature" in the fields and homemade mines, total alcoholism, mountains of weapons and persistent hatred of former friends and neighbors who remained on the other side of the border. And the Russian taxpayer will continue to pay for this dubious pleasure.