Sanction effect: compensation only for friends

The law proposed by the deputy from the United Russia faction Andrei Makarov was adopted by lightning speed - in a week. It applies to Russians who are tax residents of other countries, but after imposing sanctions they cannot eat in them. Thus, they are forced to (living for more than 183 days in Russia) become Russian tax residents. But some of these people can simultaneously be recognized by tax residents of other countries, even without being in them. This happens if in these countries people have “life interests” (business and residential real estate). In this case, there is a threat of double taxation.

In order not to enter into humiliating individual negotiations on the avoidance of double taxation, a simple scheme was invented: a member of the sanctions list submits an application to Russian tax authorities, informing the resident of which country it is, and that’s all. Taxes in Russia can not pay as much as sanctions are valid. At the time of the sanctions, people who have fallen under them cease to be Russian tax residents - if they are residents of another country. Moreover: those who paid the income tax in Russia during the period of sanctions (starting in 2014), it will be returned.

Friends are all

The American sanctions list included 56 Russians, 157 Russians and Ukrainians in the European. These lists partially coincide; They include politicians, heads of state -owned companies, large businessmen related to state authority. The income tax paid by them can reach very significant amounts: for example, while Roman Abramovich was the governor of Chukotka, he personally ensured a significant part of the regional budget. There are non -residents among members of the sanctions lists: Boris Rotenberg is a citizen of Russia and Finland; Gennady Timchenko was a tax resident of Finland, and then preferred Switzerland. After the introduction of sanctions, he said that he had stopped riding. It is clear that Makarov’s correction immediately began to be called the Timchenko Law. Arkady Rotenberg told Interfax that he and his brother Boris - tax residents of Russia and residents of other countries are not going to become. Among the sanctions lists included in the personal sanctions lists, Nikolai Shamalov - Putin's friends, still according to the Lake Cooperative, the head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, the head of Rostec Group of Companies Sergey Chemezov, former head of Russian Railways Vladimir Yakunin, a fugitive Ukrainian president living in Russia, Viktor Yanukovych. Members of sanctions lists that are not tax residents of other countries, this law does not apply.

As a result, friends under sanctions will not report on the income of foreign companies controlled by them either in Russia or in the country where the company works

Non -residents pay income tax on income received in Russia at a rate of 30% instead of 13%. But they are exempted from tax on income received abroad. Residents pay income tax at a regular rate, but they must pay it from income received anywhere. It is at this moment that double taxation arises, which Makarov took care of the avoidance of. Another indulgence: the persons who have fallen under sanctions will be delivered from the obligation to submit a report on foreign companies controlled by them. With retained profits, the residents should have paid income tax at a rate of 13% (this procedure is first introduced from this year). And if the business is being carried out in a country where there is no legislation on controlled companies (Switzerland, Czech Republic, offshore), then the tax on the profit of this company will not have to pay abroad. As a result, friends under sanctions will not report on the income of foreign companies that they have controlled in Russia or the country where the company operates.

Banks that fell under fresh sanctions will also receive help. Recently, Ukraine has imposed sanctions against the daughters of Russian Sberbank, VTB and VEB, which forbid them to perform operations in favor of maternal banks in Russia (including interest on loans) and keep the accounts of Ukrainian state -owned enterprises. In fact, this also means a ban on increasing the capital of daughters. The work of several offices is blocked. Apparently, the Russian State Banks will have to sell their Ukrainian units. To help them survive these losses, the Russian Central Bank will extend the period during which they can form reserves in case of Ukrainian losses. This is a significant concession: if not for this installment plan, the reserves would have to be formed immediately, and these are great expenses.

Sanctions losses

The Russian state compensates for the losses from sanctions only to “its own”, although the sanctions were quite painfully hit throughout Russia. The Ministry of Economic Development estimated the losses from them only in 2015 at 1.5% of GDP - about $ 20–25 billion. A rating made by economists Konstantin Forilin (German Institute for Economic Research - DIW Berlin) and Alexei Nitsunaev (Free UNTSUNAEVA (Free UNTSUNAEV): 2% GDP. This is only a direct effect of sanctions. There are also indirect.

The measures introduced against Russia reduced the foreign trade of the Russian Federation with other countries by about $ 114 billion, calculated Matthew Croaze (Chinese University of Hong Kong) and Julian Hinz. At the same time, 91% of this reduction was on goods raised by sanctions introduced against Russia, and not by its response “antisanions”. Direct investments, the possibility of trade financing, decreased significantly.

The oil and gas complex, the military-industrial complex and banks were most badly affected by the sanctions. For TEK, this effect was partially softened by the tax maneuver and weakening of the ruble, for the military -industrial complex - a sharp increase in state defense order. But financial comfort does not solve the problem of lack of access to foreign technologies for oil and gas production on shelf - they are needed for long -term projects in the Arctic. Living under sanctions large Russian companies, as well as influential entrepreneurs managing state -owned companies, is very inconvenient. Therefore, Trump and his team were so important for the Putin circle - the hopes of the Russian establishment to cancel the sanctions were associated with the change of US president. And that is why Trump’s team made such large investments: Putin made a serious bet on him, which, however, did not justify himself. So you have to compensate for the loss in other ways - through taxes. At least the most important people.

Losers

The counter -sanctions were introduced based on the idea of ​​revenge - to hurt the countries that imposed sanctions against Russia. In some cases, this effect is noticeable: German, Czech, Slovak, etc. Companies are pressed on their governments: they would like to continue to conduct business with Russia on ordinary conditions. But at the macro level, none of the researchers cited above was found at least some noticeable effect of all sanctions for European economies (not to mention the United States).

This is not surprising, given the comparative size of our economies. The countries that imposed sanctions against Russia in 2012 accounted for 63.8% of Russian exports. On the contrary, the countries against which it introduced counter -sanctions accounted for only 2.3% of exports. The share of Russia in American exports is only 0.7%, but in Lithuanian - 19.9%. Naturally, the most counter -sanctions hit the countries of the Baltic, Scandinavia, and Eastern Europe. But in general, this blow is small. And these losses, as the Economists of the RANEPA notes, were ultimately compensated by export growth to other countries.

Europe delivered a lot of meat and dairy products, vegetables and fruits to Russia. As a result of reorientation for other countries, export from Europe, the food products, which Russia refused (and part - put it under bulldozers), did not fall, but grew up. From Europe as a whole, for 2014-2015, exports were reduced, but Russia accounted for a very small part of this reduction: France has 5.8%, in Slovakia - 2.8%. The smallest extent managed to compensate for the losses from the decreased supplies to Russia of meat products of France, Germany, Denmark and Belgium, and fruits - Poland.

The countries that imposed sanctions against Russia in 2012 accounted for 63.8% of Russian exports. On the contrary, the countries against which it introduced counter -sanctions accounted for only 2.3% of exports against the countries

The population also loses due to sanctions. As the Economists of the RANEPA, the Gaidar Institute and the Academy of Foreign Trade calculated, Russian grocery antisanctions dispersed inflation in 2014-2016 by about 3% per year. This is equivalent to the losses of each consumer in the amount of 4400 rubles. per year. This effect was the strongest at the beginning, and then consumers simply switched to domestic products of lower quality (also accelerated) and imports from other countries. No one is going to compensate for these losses. Since the end of 2015, the effect of sanctions has come to naught, and now, as polls show public opinion, the population all explains to them at least a deterioration in their standard of living.

Compensating the losses from the sanctions by the elected and not compensating them for the entire population, the political leadership is acting quite rationally. After all, sanctions against large businessmen and officials from Russia are introduced in order to live to live. So that they, having lost in income and in the ability to live and earn abroad, have influenced the Russian leadership: they forced him to bring Russian foreign policy to more compliance with international law. It is possible that such pressure really took place. So tax compensation is a completely rational move: the Russian state compensates for the most influential elite group part of its losses due to sanctions. As a result, this group complains less about life, ceases to insist on adjusting politics. And you can continue in the same spirit.

Photo: Libursec.com, Dmitry Senerbryakov/TASS, Gleb Shchelkunov/Kommersant, Mikhail Razuvaev/Kommersant, Mikhail Metzel/TASS, Peter Kassin/TASS