On the biophysics of social explosions in general and in particular

Yesterday's speeches surprised many, including the participants and organizers themselves. Few people expected a similar effect, especially from “unauthorized” shares with the risk that they would lead. If such a way out were waiting, there would be more people. This is so, for the future. In the meantime, it does not interfere with “wiping glasses” and correct the optics. Everything can be much less unexpected and more symptomatic. Now political capital holders hastily recount “cash”, but at what rate? Under the threat, even relatively reserve currencies: several party ratings and authorities in one day flew into the “garbage”. The state machine is before the choice: to change something, if not a course, then the trajectory is either crushing.

Physics of an unsteady body

In politics, economic concepts easily interfere with physical and medical. The volatility resonates with turbulence, and the Flutter is obtained - the self -excitation of the aircraft of the aircraft with a fatal outcome. All these are not jokes if you remember how the leaders fly and the empires dive, and what are risks with unacceptable damage - for the authorities and the country.

After the speeches of the 2011-2012 performances, the collapse of joyful statements was: the protest was technically broken, the opposition was demoralized and squeaks from under the carpet, the government opens up new resources of mobilizing its own, the discharge of loyalty and support. Somewhere I already heard this: “Kiri-ku! Reign, lying on the side! " Ornithologists do not fly, they do not know the Flhatter phenomenon. The roostami-floods are even more so.

The usual cause of flutter destruction is the mismatch of the center of stiffness with the pressure center. In politics, the same: the structure is tightened with a huge unnecessary margin, but the pressure point changes, and the indestructible assembly flows.

The political news is that now another thing has come to the streets - partly in composition and meaning, points and vectors of pressure, especially in potential. The age demography of the streets was considered “by eye”, but it is clear that these are already in many ways other people.

The main motives were hidden behind the topic of corruption, but the silence of veterans is already talking about the more general fracture. Yavlinsky has not yet invented the built -in format, the Limonov revolutionary, and at all his elbow and was on his knees with the right denunciation of peaceful demonstrators who will kill the million air tomorrow - “and not one”. This hysteria alone says a lot.

Hidden topics

Navalny, of course, is rare and almost the only fighter, and the topic of corruption can start like no other. But this is only a sign and trigger. The incident is hardly explained by the drain of information about the sneakers and the land of Medvedev, especially since other persons involved in money -grubbing and demonstrative consumption have already been in this light, also not poor.

And there is something to compare in the world. Some people have enough mind to suspect that the vote for Trump's vulgar populism is not so much a breakdown (“America, you are fooled!”), How to challenge the arrogance of elites, and in the person not only Clinton, but also Obama. But not everyone who picks up these ideas in the service environment of the authorities understand that literally the next logical step will compare our establishment with the American and see who in reality “broke away” here. And how much.

A simple mental experiment: to conventionally transferred to the United States all our presidents, starting with state corporations, with their arrogant salaries, bonuses and golden parachutes, with mysterious property, with the lifestyle of themselves and their lovely dogs, with attitude towards people, with the manner of broadcasting and the style of political self -advertisement, finally with their pathological inconsistency and pursuing and pursuing and pursuing and pursuing and pursuing. The nursing children, wives, friends and relatives with the confidence that everything will get away with, including any operation to remove property and rights completely ruined and lowered citizens. What kind of protest voting will we get there?

Or to land all this bomond of ours with a Corgi-cult in Paris, where the just kind Francois Fiion literally trampled for a modest, by our standards, a beggarly salary established by him personally for participating in political struggle and life.

Everyone understands that in any of these cases any three times the national leader will be thrown there every other day and put in two in the rest of his life. Our amateur experts in the authorities joyfully describe new moods in the West in anticipation that everything will fall there soon, ours will come, and the Russian leadership against this background with their hands will abolish Western sanctions, becoming a stronghold of world stability under the slogan “There will be no Putin - there will be no land!” Or just humanity. But for some reason it does not occur to it that these same moods can be in a district way, if not a boomerang to go to Russia, albeit with some temporary lag. Or yesterday already?

Our well -known reassurance in this regard is also explained. “Patriots” and “liberals”, including with sociopsychological, cultural, political and sociological background, were unanimously repeated and still repeated that the mentality of the Russian person has a special attitude towards the state and superiors, to the logic of dominance and submission. Here, the prohibitive and obviously unrighteous wealth in power, coupled with the Byzantine arrogance and cruelty, is not condemned, but is accepted as signs of greatness where the scepter is a club, and the power is a piggy bank. It remains to develop another strategy in the field of state cultural policy, where it will be proven that the prohibitive rudeness of power with the manner of eating three throats is in our value system such a main track and tradition of spirituality, and in the genetic code - the main cultural chromosome and screening of the sophisticated identity, compatibility and unity.

The song of the world does not sing young people

Suppose that a protest against an arrogant, buried establishment and actually gains the power of the world trend. Let the West, burning on a shameless, short -sighted and, strictly speaking, very dishonest populism of Trump and the like, will slightly play back. But the problem will not go anywhere, we, too or even more so.

A few years ago, sociologists stated with anxiety: a generation comes, which, except for Putin’s politics, does not see, does not remember, does not remember, and, perhaps, does not want to know. These guys do not know longing and queues of stagnation, do not know the euphoria and hopes of perestroika, leaving the communist project to New Russia. They did not see how then the sprouts of freedom were torn off and walled out the exits, except for the road to nowhere. They do not imagine that in this country there may be other (except for these) politicians and another TV, other relations of society with the authorities, other parties, newspapers and even elections. They sincerely believe that in the “dashing nineties” they stole more than now, and that then the country lost in human, moral, political and all other capital more than over the past and a half years. In this regard, the conclusion was concluded that the regime will be stabilized again, plunging and entering the strip of protracted non -alternativeness. And the liberals themselves will merge and die out even without outside help on the bridge.

However, it is possible that the first “hard generation” comes now.

It serene was dragging through the relative well -being of the zero, did not go anywhere, but they did not touch him either. They did not poured, because there was nothing. But this does not cancel the educational effect of “hardness”.

People of generations come with a different political aesthetics, and possibly ethics. They were conformists and in many respects remain, but to a certain limit and for the time being. They read, see and listen a lot, and their books, music and films are in the glaring contradiction with the aesthetics of the current government, mired in malignant narcissism and gradually losing his mind from simple impunity. Those very “stylistic discrepancies”, at least.

Gradually blown away, which until recently made them conformists. They see how redistributive flows are in front of their eyes, how the final cut with an extremely ugly stuffing of drawn bags is gaining power against this background. They see how this supposedly eternal Russian harmony of power and plebs, heated foie grad and frozen pensions begins to crack. This imposes ideological longing and vulgarity, lies and self -love of artificial, virtual victories of the authorities, in studios and in the fields.

The shadow of the end of stagnation is already looming.

The crushed potential of the past protest has not disappeared. He is waiting for new energy injections, albeit from the outside of the old socio-political circle, and is always ready to mobilize.

And finally, the activation of the part of what was the political “swamp” yesterday-the masses of people who quietly hated a new order, but not so much as to go somewhere on weekends. You can make a whole list of desperately self -serving projects and acts of the very last time, clearly disrupting patience already in non -aggressive or simply politically irresponsible and lazy people. "Everything, it's time to go out!" - Now you have to hear from the most diverse and often unexpected sources.

Thermodynamics and synergetics

In these processes, two social values ​​are interconnected: mass and temperature. There can be a lot of supporting regime, but they can relate to this matter without a special light. And, on the contrary, dissatisfied, and even more openly protesters, can be noticeably smaller, but the temperature of rejection, and even more so a degree of hatred, can give this mass a very significant energy, especially in the potential.

The nuclear electorate of the regime is large, but it will not budge if it does not warm it up artificially. In turn, it is possible to artificially warm up this mass only at fear and hatred. And for this, external fronts will have to draw into the country even greater stress and political rudeness, announcing already the entire current internal and at all old -old protest by the gathering of the fascist Bandera, built in the “fifth column” for the money of the friendly and almost we set the Rex Tillerson, the new Secretary of State Pindostan. This will automatically form a closed circuit with a positive feedback, causing vivid response emotions already in the whole of not the most enthusiastic mass, including relatively neutral. Even if there are not enough people for people for anything and against the law. When they offend their and “small”, this usually causes a sharp, if not a chain reaction.

From this, the forecast of the triumphal procession of the new wave of protest or the conclusion about the impossibility of this protest is temporarily crushed at all. But here you have to keep in mind the sharply non -classical nature of the processes.

This is clearly not harsh causal (so-called dynamic) patterns. This is not Newton’s mechanics and not even “dangerous connections” of Shorelo de Lacco, in which chains of intentions, actions and results are easily traced.

Navalny is not a demiurge of the process, and not everyone can even those who. And Putin is not a demiurge.

But this is not Stochasty, not the usual likely statistical patterns, when the dynamics of the process can be observed and calculated by the resulting, which gives time to comprehend what is happening, prepare and rebuild.

I’m already tired of all the logic of bifurcation processes dragged into politics, in which small signals at the entrance, passing through the “black box” with hard but unobsanated causal ligaments, give unpredictable, disproportionate outputs at the output, and abruptly converting the system into a qualitatively different state. When a bifurcation situation arises, the system is “sick” - approximately the way that the authorities are now dissatisfied in Russia in Russia in the matters of politics, propaganda and property.

The same narcissism that compensates for children's injuries of depreciation and recognition deficit injections in such situations are implicitly. This is characteristic of both biographies and for the regime as a whole, including the mass, which is touched by narcissism in the poses of the knees, but forgetting about food problems - exactly in accordance with the drama about the ancient young man, hopelessly in love with his own reflection. These games with a mirror do not fertilize anything, but in the end end with death from hunger.

The choice of "maneuvering or crushing" is complicated and unpleasant. As a result, everything rests on the issue of time. To crush the protest and now, it means to get additional stresses immediately, and later an even stronger, vicious and vengeful answer. But at the same time there is a fear that maneuvers can inspire and warm up the protest, then forcing it to block it with even greater stiffness, and therefore with the same troubles in the end.

This is Tsugzvang: the classic "for which they fought."