Dilemma for the winner

The Serbian presidential election, which was held on April 2 with 11 candidates, was decisively won by incumbent Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić, leader of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party

The outcome of the elections seems to have been obvious in advance. Otherwise, Russian President Vladimir Putin would hardly have met in Moscow six days before the Serbian vote with Prime Minister Vučić, who decided to become president. The Kremlin clearly assumed that it was Vucic who would win the election. That is why Vladimir Putin so openly and easily, in front of the cameras, wished success to the Serbian guest.

The logic of both participants in the Serbian election game is understandable. Aleksandar Vučić counted on winning already in the first round, and he really needed the votes of pro-Russian voters who oppose Serbia's European integration. Support from the president of the Russian Federation, popular in Serbia, is the best recipe for this. Moreover, the support is supported by a promise to donate, albeit used, but still modern MiG-29 fighters.

The Kremlin, having supported the Serbian prime minister at the right moment, is certainly counting on serious reciprocal gestures. And not just counting, but trying to create guarantees for this. It's no secret that in Moscow they feel some distrust towards Alexander Vucic because of his attempts to sit on two chairs - Russian and European, while maintaining his favorite formula "both the EU and Russia."

Yes, Serbia under Aleksandar Vučić did not join the EU sanctions against Russia. And in the ongoing scandal with the accusation of two members of the Russian special services of involvement in the coup attempt in Montenegro, Belgrade has done everything to protect Russia to a certain extent. But the same Vučić has been refusing for several years to grant diplomatic status to Russian employees of the Humanitarian Center in the city of Nis in southern Serbia. And Serbia's interaction with NATO is developing very intensively.

Therefore, apparently, it is no coincidence that no one from the Serbian side was present at the talks between Vučić and Putin in the Kremlin, except for the prime minister himself. That is, the negotiations were very confidential, which opens up opportunities for frank demands from the host and firm promises from the guest. And in this scenario, Moscow's demand to provide the Russians at the Humanitarian Center in Nis with a diplomatic status could be classified as minimal.

If the Serbian prime minister, who has recently been making significant progress in his command of the Russian language, relies on the well-known Russian proverb “they wait three years for the promised”, then serious dangers lie in wait for him. In the event of non-fulfillment of the communications that he probably gave to the Kremlin, Vučić risks incurring economic sanctions on his country from Russia, and this will be extremely painful for Serbia.