The revolution of robots

Sergey Medvedev: “Robot” is the Slavic word, it was invented by Karelle Chapek in his utopia Rur. But, despite the fact that it understands every Russian (comes from the word “work”), it seems that in the current state Russia is far away or very far behind in the field of robotization. The numbers of the Ministry of Economy: Russia is 70 times behind the leading industrial (or, rather even post -industrial countries) in terms of robotization density). What to do with it? What awaits the country in the future of the fourth industrial revolution, robotization? We are talking about this with Vitaly Nedelsky , President of the National Association of Participants in the Robotics Market . Russia really lags at 70 times in terms of robotization density, by a relative number of robots per unit of products?

Vitaliy Nedelsky: Yes, we can say that Russia has not yet begun to be robotic, with the exception of some automobile plants, and, for the most part, imported ones. There is a generalized indicator - the density of robots, the number of ten thousand working in the corresponding industry, and we have one robot for ten thousand. The average world indicator last year exceeded 70, and in countries such as Japan or Germany, these are 300 robots, in Korea - 500 robots per 10 thousand. In Korea, flagships such as auto industry and electronics are pulled, they are very robotic. So the lag is enormous. Unfortunately, we can say, albeit exaggerated that we have not yet begun to introduce robotics for production.

"Robot" is a Slavic word, it is invented by Karelle Chapek in his utopia rur

Sergey Medvedev: Every time we have this idea of Russia as a country of catching up, each time it turns out such a failure at 30-50 years, and each time Russia, like Munchhausen, pulls itself out of the hair from the swamp ...

Vitaliy Week: I think, yes, we are in the same rolle in the lag. It may be less than 30-40 years: now the cycles are reduced, therefore, rather, the lag can be 10-15 years. For example, China rushed into robotization 10 years ago, and over the past five years there has been a tremendous volume of purchases. But besides this, they grow their own Chinese companies that make robots.

Sergey Medvedev: And China himself makes its robots?

Vitaly Week: Yes. Over the past three years, he captured 20% of his own market, and this is at the very least 20 thousand pieces: they themselves made them and sold them themselves. Naturally, Chinese companies support the government. But an industrial robot is a manipulator, it is such a multi-vascular hand that does something useful: puts the part in the machine or processes it, or is welding. These are not men, not cars. But this is the main robot market, it is ten times the others, service.

Sergey Medvedev: These are industrial robots. But what about the robots who lead us along the auto -producers of various insurance companies and banks?

An industrial robot is a manipulator, it is such a multi-sustained hand that does something useful

Vitaly Nedelsky: Strictly speaking, according to the international GOST, this is not considered a robot. A robot is a kind of mechanism, not an algorithm. But in general vocabulary, such programs, of course, are also called robots.

Sergey Medvedev: Russia lags behind precisely according to the mechanisms in industry?

Vitaly Nedelsky: There is something in service robotics, it seems that everything is good in military robotics, but no one knows exactly that. The fact is that it is industry that moves the economy, it can be judged by the state of minds, technological culture, and state policy in this area.

Sergey Medvedev: Can I buy the missing equipment, how did you buy Magnitogorsk in the root at one time?

Vitaliy Nedelsky: We have no other option except to buy, we do not have our own robots manufacturers at all. But here is a chicken and an egg: a small microscopic market - there are no manufacturers. There was the only manufacturer - the Volga Machine -Building Plant inside AvtoVAZ. Once a German company put it, just as Fiat supplied us with “Lada”. It is closed by the penultimate French director as a non-core asset.

Now there is only one way - to buy. And it would be good if they bought and put on production - in very small volumes, literally hundreds of pieces.

Sergey Medvedev: It's about the future of industrial production in Russia as such?

It is industry that moves the economy, it can be judged by the state of minds, technological culture, and state policy in this area

Vitaliy Nedelsky: Rather, old production methods are frozen.

Sergey Medvedev: What is the technological forecast then if the current trends continue? By the way, does robotics fall under sanctions?

Vitaly Week: Today - no. Moreover, imported robots are not subject to import duties.

Sergey Medvedev: Was there a special resolution on this subject?

Vitaliy weekly: Yes, although this does not particularly help, simply because they are bought little, they do not know how to consider the economy, change the technology. But you can change this situation quickly enough. As in all countries where the role of the state is large, it will be enough if the state begins to support this, and, in addition, the public sector, in particular, the defense industry and state enterprises will simply begin to actively modernize using robots. For some reason they themselves do not do this.

Sergey Medvedev: That is, in any case, the necessary strong state investment program of robotization? Internal financial resources is not enough for this?

Vitaliy Nedelsky: There are enough financial resources, here the question is to determine the priorities. In any case, they are determined by the state. Robotics is designated as priority orally, but so far there are no special programs. A robot is a collective thing: there is iron, and mechanisms, and software, and people who know how to handle it. And if robots begin to appear, then they are bought, and, accordingly, their integrators, their programmers grow, and this pulls a lot. But until the hands reached.

Sergey Medvedev: Is this generally a global trend that cheap labor is no longer a way to save costs?

There are no robots in Russia at all in Russia

Vitaliy Nedelsky: China Paradox: He all the time boasted with cheap labor, which is no longer there.

Sergey Medvedev: I see that many familiar entrepreneurs bring out production from China, because the Chinese are more expensive.

Vitaliy Nedelsky: Where to go? For the past 20 years, they have been forced to raise salaries. On the coast for ten years, as the salaries of engineers are comparable to European ones: in port cities and so on. Therefore, they first led the production deep into the production, where there are more peasants, and the last five years they purchase robots with a large scale. There is a known example with Foxconn , which prints iPhones: their plan is to install one hundred thousand robots in the next five years.

Sergey Medvedev: Very often you have to deal with a media myth, maybe some kind of threat of a threat that robots will gradually take their jobs from people. How do you feel about this?

Vitaly Week: This is one -sided perception. Robots take the work with one hand, and give it with the other hand. According to the statistics of the International Robotics Federation, in the sectors where robots work, more new jobs appear more than the old ones disappear, and these places are more intelligent, because the workers now work with robots, they simply save them from dangerous and difficult operations. From morning to evening you repeat the same action and just dumb, and so the worker is served by some kind of robot park, and it has a more lively job. But at the same time there are people who program them, makes the service and so on. There is a redistribution towards more intelligent specialties.

Vitaly Week

Sergey Medvedev: You are engaged only in such iron industrial robots, or in the field of activity of your association includes, say, robots that are in the same insurance companies (a person does not need to communicate with an insurance agent when he fills out questionnaires) that records in clinics, diagnostic robots, doctors?

Robots take the work with one hand, and give it with the other hand

Vitaliy Nedelsky: We are uniting players. Today, the main players that we have are of are integrators and manufacturers of robots. What you called is an IT company that write such software. We do not have them. Strictly speaking, these are not quite robots.

Sergey Medvedev: That is, you are associated only with industry or, for example, with agriculture - there is also amazing robotization. More and more often you have to read about farms where one woman controls three thousand cows.

Vitaliy Nedelsky: In this sense, agriculture is also industry. Transport is also industry, but these are all industries. The agricultural industry is now highly profitable, if it is correctly engaged in it, it is the third in Russia in terms of export. In this sense, farmers have generally approached their technological ceiling, when, roughly speaking, a person plus a tractor - they can no longer do anymore. And now, if you put an unmanned tractor, a system of accurate agriculture that collects data is very pointwise, fertilizers are introduced at the right time, and so on, you can increase the productivity by 50%. Imagine how much money it is. Large agricultural holdings have already actively went into this story. We counted three dozen companies in the world, in which the finish development of unmanned tractors is now underway.

Sergey Medvedev: That is, we can come to a state when there will be farms without a person, that is, a person at a computer who controls this whole farm is sitting at home somewhere?

There is a redistribution towards more intelligent specialties

Vitaliy Nedelsky: So they are still in Russia now! They just buy a turnkey some Dutch or Belgian farm where there are pigs or cows: automatic milking, feeding out and so on. Some people are there anyway, but they just make sure that everything is in order.

Sergey Medvedev: Sometimes I get to read about completely robotic, without people, stations - in China, for example. Fantastic railway, high -mountain stations on the Tibetan plateau, and there are stations without people.

Vitaly Week: Why not? He sold a ticket, launched a person, a security system ... McDonald's has a plan this year - to launch 25 thousand deserted restaurants. Last year they ran one in Arizona.

Sergey Medvedev: Is the cooking already fully automated? I thought it was only an order ...

Vitaliy Nedelsky: For fast food, this may be not bad, because the operations are already so distributed there, such a division of labor inside that it is no longer difficult to transfer this algorithm into the machine. Even in Moscow, we make an automated order.

Sergey Medvedev: Apparently, in a few years in the most advanced parts, the entire cycle will be completely robotic, that is, meat and vegetables will be grown on robotic farms, a bun - made in an automated bakery, an unmanned car will take it to McDonald's ...

McDonald's has a plan this year - to launch 25 thousand deserted restaurants

Vitaliy Nedelsky: And the drone will take the power to the place where you are sitting on a bench and through a mobile phone you ordered a bun: it will fly and sits right with a cup of coffee. But we need to deal with drones, with the resolution of flights in cities - this is a separate story.

Sergey Medvedev: But even without drones, if it is a fast food restaurant: an unmanned car, a fast food restaurant without people drove there ...

Vitaly Nedelsky: People have disappeared from there, but an industry appeared, which does all this: such restaurants, components for them.

Sergey Medvedev: That is, the loss of people will be compensated by new workplaces in programming?

Vitaliy Nedelsky: These are already statistics: there will be more of them, and these jobs will be more diverse. A simple example: when there was a horse -drawn transport, there was, roughly speaking, 50 professions: brownies, manufacturers, blacksmiths ... Now let's take a new mode of transport - a car. How many specialties are there? There are definitely not 50 of them, there may be 500 of them: from designers to the last tire fitting.

Sergey Medvedev: motels, automobile cinemas, automobile churches ...

Vitaly Nedelsky: A huge industry has grown, in which a lot of people are involved. The picture must be watched whole; Before my eyes are historical examples. Why scare people? In London, they scared that there would be two meters of manure if the horses arrive at such a speed.

Sergey Medvedev: It was a few years before the Ford began to be produced.

It is interesting to talk about what type of economy it is, what all this will mean for society, whether capitalism will disappear in the form in which Marx described it. How will the economy change, how will capitalism change, if all this brilliant utopia (however, no longer utopia) will be realized?

Capital goes for cheap labor. He followed him literally until the last decade, reached China and got up there

Vitaliy Nedelsky: This is an interesting question. On the one hand, the ungrateful business is to predict the future: as a rule, the people are mistaken ...

You can speculate from the opposite. One of the key abstracts of the original capitalism, starting with Adam Smith : capital goes for cheap labor. He followed him literally until the last decade, reached China and got up there. In Africa, it did not arise, in a sense, Africa, apparently, will jump over the previous phases. The cheap work in China is over, robots began. In order for the loan percentage to pay off, you must grow labor productivity and the costs should fall.

Robots solve both of these issues, that is, on the one hand, cheap work disappears, and on the other hand, you can reduce costs almost to zero due to the fact that you have capital costs at the very beginning, and then they are very low. Naturally, capitalism mutates in something else.

Sergey Medvedev: endless increase in performance, minimization of costs, zero percentage ...

Vitaliy Nedelsky: When any living ecosystem develops, it reaches the limits of its growth and is limited to something. For example, this will be limited to demand, because we will not buy ten mobile phones at the same time, and we will most likely be less than now, they will go into public property. That is, we see that in developed countries, consumption is reduced, despite all the stimulation, advertising, and so on.

Sergey Medvedev: Then, perhaps, the picture of capitalism of the twentieth century really changes as unbridled consumption, pumping of the consumer, more Marx, communist utopias appear, when labor becomes free gift, and money ceases to be a scarce product?

In developed countries, consumption is reduced, despite all the stimulation

Vitaliy Nedelsky: Utopia is therefore called utopia that it cannot be realized. Since all people are different, one will want to create and create a new one, and others will relax and relax. Therefore, in many countries, for example, topics of basic income are extended. If the state cannot provide jobs, let's pay some so that people can live and not work. If you want to live better - work, you want to enjoy your work - work.

But it is interesting that they have not voted anywhere for this. The last referendum in Switzerland is 82% against. This is a very good indicator: it is apparently closer to utopicity. That is, social programs, roughly speaking, will definitely help with siro and poor, they will develop, but so that all sisters in earrings are not very believed in it.

Sergey Medvedev: How does Russia fit into this future? How much is it capable of technological modernization as a whole?

Vitaly Weeklysky: We have

There is a way, worked out for centuries: when it is strongly necessary, sell something unnecessary and buy whole factories. We have done this in a circular one, probably four times: during the period of Stalin's industrialization, then-late Soviet, some elements appear now. Is it possible to somehow stretch and grow your staff? Of course, you can. Now such initiatives are more born around NTI .

We have precisely manifest competence - this is mathematics and software, it is already hanging in the global division of labor. Even if our programmers work in Western companies, this is still clear our specialization. Moreover, unlike Indian programmers, ours are more highly qualified programmers due to fundamental mathematics.

Sergey Medvedev: That is, Russia will simply buy this robotics and, apparently, participate in the world division of labor as programming this robotics, writing algorithms?

We have precisely manifest competence - this is mathematics and software, it is already hanging in the global division of labor

Vitaly Week: Rather, the question is, there is no one to buy, and then what will you do with the purchased. That is, they buy robots to do something-a product. If you can then compete in the world market with this product, please. And if you make these cars only on a small domestic market ...

Сергей Медведев: Да, но соберет ли Россия конкурентоспособный автомобиль при помощи этих роботов?

Виталий Недельский: Может быть, тебе тогда и не нужны роботы, а ты с господдержкой собираешь что-то свое и удовлетворяешь свои внутренние потребности.

Мне кажется, помимо базовых потребностей, важно сконцентрироваться на каких-то экспортно орентированных, высокотехнологических, может быть, не отраслях, но хотя бы направлениях. Например, мы можем делать технологичные решения, в основе которых будут лежать чужие роботы, железо, наш софт, и они будут встроены в какие-то сложные решения. Как делают титановые детали, которые присутствуют в «Боинге» и «Эйрбасе» ? Дали им, например, элементы шасси - они их делают. Это сложные технологические элементы. И таких примеров можно найти много достаточно.

Сергей Медведев: По титану Россия - вообще чуть ли не монополист.

Виталий Недельский: Не надо много ума, чтобы быть монополистом, если у тебя основное месторождение (так же, как и по никелю). А вот много ума надо, чтобы делать высокий передел - с нефтью, например: продавать не сырую нефть, а продукты нефтехимии, концентрироваться там, где уже есть научные исследования, где высокая добавленная стоимость.

Сергей Медведев: С другой стороны, в смысле будущего места России… В прошлом году об этом очень много говорилось, на Всемирном экономическом форуме в Давосе был доклад о четвертой промышленной революции . Там, в частности, говорилось, что она гораздо более распределена, она гораздо более сетевая, там более дизайнерские продукты. Может быть, в этом есть какой-то потенциал?

Суть роботов-андроидов в том, что они должны действовать в человеческой среде, спроектированные под человека

​ Виталий Недельский: Можно, грубо говоря, делать продукты на локальном рынке с помощью 3D-принтера, библиотеки программ, закрывать потребность на свою маленькую деревню, не обязательно привозить их черт знает откуда, даже из Китая. Или можно встраиваться в какие-то мировые цепочки. Даже маленькая компания может встроиться и делать свой кусочек. В этом смысле я не вижу каких-то больших проблем. Основная проблема с нефтяным проклятьем возникает из-за того, что денег много, но распределение приоритетов идет не туда. Если это немножко выравнивается, то… Талантливых людей много.

Сергей Медведев: Причем это не обязательно должна быть концентрация ресурсов на стратегических направлениях, это может быть средняя компания до тысячи человек.

Виталий Недельский: Конечно. И такие примеры есть, просто, может быть, их не так много, но есть ряд компаний, которые успешно делают свой продукт на мировых рынках, просто российский рынок для них маленький. Есть и более известные компании: Лаборатория Касперского , условно говоря, в тройке лидеров, а где-то они, может быть, лучшие в мире по своим продуктам.

Мы регулярно принимаем участие в выставке «Инопром» в Екатеринбурге, там с каждым годом все больше и больше представлена тема роботизации цифровых технологий. Можно видеть, как появляются более сложные российские продукты, несмотря на то, что много иностранных. Все это год от года растет на наших глазах.

Сергей Медведев: В том числе, российские роботы?

Виталий Недельский: Мы знаем сейчас как минимум пять компаний, которые готовятся к выпуску роботов. Дальше это уже вопрос рынка и спроса: появляется спрос - они выводят свои продукты.

Сергей Медведев: А роботы как роботы — это, скорее, научно-футуристическая область деятельности?

Виталий Недельский: У нас тоже есть такая компания - «Андроидная техника», она делает робота-андроида, причем очень хорошего, на мировом уровне. У них госзаказ под космос.

Роботы учатся у рабочих. Рабочий берет, завинчивает гаечку - робот повторяет

Суть роботов-андроидов в том, что они должны действовать в человеческой среде, спроектированные под человека, то есть они могут, например, сесть в кабину автомобиля, ехать, дергать за эти рычаги, зайти, открыть ключом дверь. Луноход там не справится, а робот-андроид пройдет. Второе — им можно просто дистанционно управлять, видеть картину в точности, как человек, чувствовать эти руки, видеть глазами через камеры, через сенсоры. Оператор будет управлять им, у него не будет такого сенсорного рассогласования.

Сергей Медведев: Если отправлять в космос какие-то пробные зонды, можно сначала сделать так, чтобы робот сидел за рычагами.

Виталий Недельский: Не только. Сейчас, например, на сборке «Эйрбаса» во Франции андроидные роботы работают рядом с рабочими, просто копируют их движения. Они учатся у рабочих. Рабочий берет, завинчивает гаечку - робот повторяет.

Сергей Медведев: То есть его не надо программировать, он сам может смотреть на человека и учиться у него? И человек знает, что через месяц робот займет его место…

Виталий Недельский: Он займет его место в завинчивании гаек. А зачем человеку всю жизнь завинчивать гайки, если это может делать робот? Он будет присматривать за стайкой этих роботов, следить, чтобы все было в порядке, переводить их на другие участки — это же более интересная деятельность, чем крутить гайки.

Сергей Медведев: Роботизированная сборка в итоге более качественная на «Эйрбасе», на самолетах? В сфере автомобилей наиболее элитными считаются машины ручной сборки.

Вся сварка в автопроме — это давно уже роботы

​ Виталий Недельский: Вся сварка в автопроме — это давно уже роботы. Ведь сварка – это, во-первых, вредно, а во-вторых, вам нужно всегда одинаковое качество. Кроме того, это огромные объемы, поэтому они работают 24 на 7. Никакой сварщик не достигнет такого показателя. При элитной сборке они собирают маленькие партии, но я думаю, что там сварочные операции тоже делают роботы.

Сергей Медведев: То есть роботизация все равно проникает и в сборку «Бугатти», «Ламборгини» и прочих?

Виталий Недельский: Думаю, да. Хотя там штучное производство, и это нельзя сравнивать. Роботы, конечно, используются на массовом производстве.

Сергей Медведев: Рисуется совершенно фантастическое будущее, причем с последствиями для структуры общества, экономики, кредита, глобального распределения труда. Единственное, хочется пожелать, чтобы Россия преодолела свое отставание - от кого-то в 70, от кого-то, как от Кореи, в 500 раз, и очередным рывком вписалась в новый этап модернизации.