Arrest of ex-head of Mari El Leonid Markelov - fight against corruption or political intrigue?

Colleagues from the federal publication Versiya supported my concept of the reasons for large-scale political changes in Mari El, and published a large journalistic investigation into the reasons why the odious Head of the Republic, Leonid Markelov, was arrested.

After the arrest of the former head of Mari El, Leonid Markelov, the republic’s chances of competitive struggle in early elections have decreased. Apparently, the Kremlin realized that in order to avoid a protest vote on the side of the Reds, Markelov must be sacrificed by demonstrably handcuffing him. However, the acting head is from the same team.

What they were waiting for in Mari El has happened - the arrest of the ex-head of Mari El Leonid Markelov and the initiation of a criminal case against him. Observers and experts predicted a different scenario, since initially the resignation of the corrupt head was presented as a transition to another job.

Acting Alexander Evstifeev was sent to the region, and the former head was quickly removed from sight, even removed from the list of those invited to the presentation of the new head of the region. Just a few days ago, experts put forward versions that Markelov was allowed to leave quietly so that he could calmly receive a protective parliamentary mandate.

Political scientists seriously predicted the second round of the gubernatorial elections in September, believing that the systemic opposition has a good chance of winning the votes of voters who have lost confidence in both the local authorities and the federal center. But the arrest of the head of Mari El reduced their chances.

Experts believe that the exposure and publicity of the scale of corruption that has engulfed the region and poisoned all areas of activity adds points to the current acting Alexander Evstifeev, automatically raising his authority in the eyes of the population. The “glorification” of the Kremlin protege began from the very first days of his tenure as acting. Everything looks like Markelov, who was clearly planning to move to the seat of a senator or deputy, became just a pawn in a behind-the-scenes game.

Let's try to figure out why Leonid Markelov, who was involved in high-profile corruption scandals, ruled the republic for 16 years with impunity? It is possible that this could not have happened without a high-ranking “curator” in the Kremlin.

There are some facts from the biography of the ex-head of Mari El that indirectly point to Markelov’s patrons. And, most interestingly, it turns out that it is possible that both acting Alexander Evstifeev and ex-head of Mari El Leonid Markelov were appointed to the republic thanks to the patronage of the same people.

Friends and classmates

Thus, several experts argue that the reappointment of Leonid Markelov in 2009 could have been facilitated by his old acquaintance from his institute days, Sergei Dubik, who worked in the presidential administration for 14 years and was in charge of personnel issues. Dubik himself, by the way, seems to be a very ambiguous character to some.

Together with Leonid Markelov, he graduated from the Military Institute of the Ministry of Defense in 1986 and then worked for a short time as a military prosecutor. Since 2001, Dubik, according to some observers, thanks to his acquaintance with Dmitry Medvedev’s classmate at the Law Faculty of Leningrad State University, an employee of the Russian Federation Administration and former top manager of Gazprom Sergei Chuichenko, became Medvedev’s adviser, Kommersant reports.

Markelov's reappointment occurred precisely at a time when Dmitry Medvedev was president. Now there are assumptions that Evstifeev received the position of acting head of the republic thanks to the head of the Russian Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko, for whom he was deputy in 2000–2002 at the embassy in the Volga Federal District. But still, Evstifeev’s main patron may be the ex-chairman of the Supreme Arbitration Court of Russia, Anton Ivanov, a classmate of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev , with whom, according to Sobesednik, the judge had a common business.

Evstifeev, apparently, received the position of judge thanks to the patronage of Ivanov, who was promoted in every possible way by his high-ranking classmate, Kompromat.Ru reports. So can we expect any drastic changes in Mari El if the former head and the current, albeit temporary, head of practically the same nest?

Double shot

Perhaps Leonid Markelov would have continued to rule Mari El for at least another year before the presidential elections if Nikolai Krivash had not decided to sell the Akashevo agricultural holding to structures close to the Minister of Agriculture Nikolai Tkachev, who conducted an audit, after which FSB officers raided the agricultural holding.

In this regard, experts suggest that the scenario of further events in Mari El should have developed approximately as follows. The Kremlin, of course, was aware of the questions from law enforcement agencies to Markelov. Adding to the headache was the fact that the local electorate voted for the communist candidate Sergei Kazankov in the State Duma elections.

In turn, the opposition, represented by Sergei Mamaev, a long-time opponent of Markelov, bombarded law enforcement agencies and the presidential office with requests about the corrupt activities of the head of the republic and officials of his government . At the same time, social unrest began in Mari El, after which followers of Alexei Navalny began to test the waters in the republic. Moscow curators, of course, could not allow the “Navalnovism” to happen in the region, nor could the Communist Party candidate win the future gubernatorial elections. In particular, the head of the regional reception office of Gennady Zyuganov, Kirov resident Sergei Mamaev.

Therefore, it was decided to rotate personnel. Sergei Kiriyenko found a suitable candidate. So Alexander Evstifeev, perhaps unexpectedly for himself, turned out to be the acting head of Mari El, and Leonid Markelov was ordered to sit at home and keep a low profile, apparently having promised that same notorious senatorial seat. The ex-chief waited patiently until he was eventually detained.

Thus, a double shot occurred - the governor of the Kirov region, Sergei Mamaev, who is dangerous for the elections, is lured to Mari El (the party now plans to nominate him as a candidate for the post of head of the republic), thereby ensuring the victory of the current acting head of the Kirov region Vasiliev and, accordingly, United Russia. And in Mari El, which is significantly inferior to the Kirov region in terms of economy, territory and number of voters, but at the same time compact and, therefore, easier to manage, they include resources and direct forces to the war with the communists in the person of Mamaev. With certain chances of winning.

"Positive" is rather weak

At the same time, a campaign began to “glorify” the new interim. Literally immediately after his appointment, reports began pouring in about the activities of Evstifeev, who undertook to clear out the “Augean stables” of Markel’s legacy. Moreover, literally right away, the experts of the “Kremlin Rating” recorded the acting as an “excellent student” among the current governor’s corps! And on the eve of the arrest of Leonid Markelov, the acting official “revealed” data about the true state of affairs in the republic, shocking him with information about the “cosmic” public debt of Mari El and the failed work of the cabinet of ministers.

What makes the situation surreal is that the story about this speech was broadcast on the Region 12 TV channel, which is believed to be associated with the family of Leonid Markelov and which for many years reported every day about the successes of Mari El. By the way, Markelov was not mentioned in any way in Evstifeev’s speech, although according to the Constitution only he could lead the policy that led to the pre-bankrupt state of the republic.

It also does not fit with the “new course” that Evstifeev, exposing extremely bad policies, called on officials to work energetically and take all possible measures to solve financial problems. This raises several questions. How can one encourage ministers to work energetically, whose work they called a failure, and who have driven Mari El to the brink? If the acting head is not going to carry out a personnel purge, the need for which is simply obvious, then how can one understand Evstifeev’s work with ministers who, in his own assessment, have failed in their work?

Most likely, the Kremlin realized that in order to reduce the degree of popular discontent, it is necessary to give the population what they ask for. So it was decided to “sacrifice” Leonid Markelov by handcuffing him. Perhaps the arrest of the ex-head of Mari El will lead to several more criminal cases and high-profile arrests.

But experts are inclined to see in this natural procedure also a sign that it will be very difficult for the opposition to fight for votes in the elections, since their main trump card is hidden behind bars.

However, this “positive” is rather weak, since no hero will correct the situation even by a tenth. What has been falling apart for 16 years cannot be restored in six months.

The thirteen-billion-dollar national debt and other obligations will not allow for redirection and distraction. And it’s impossible to fix it quickly and with all our might - not Sochi.

And the electorate, meanwhile, is no longer asking questions in their kitchens - why did Markelov reign here for 16 years? Haven’t you noticed the corrupt aureole on his “royal” head before? What about bankrupt industrial enterprises and collective farms, and dismissals and persecution? What about tyranny and corruption? Who will be responsible for this now? New interim? Maybe... Unless, of course, a decision is made to introduce external control. Which, by the way, is being talked about.