Between two extremes

April 23 - the first round of the presidential election in France. Favorites are still considered the leader of the extreme right-wing “National Front” Marine Le Pen, centrist Emmanuel Macron and representative of the Republican right-centric party Francois Fiion. But surprises are also possible: the main theme in the media has already become an unexpected breakthrough of the extreme left candidate Jean-Luke Melanchon. The New Times sorted out the final election.

At the end of January 2017, the rating of Jean-Luka Melanchon, the leader of the extreme left movement “rebellious France”, did not exceed 10%, and he was very lagging behind the socialist Benois Amon in fourth place. Now the situation has changed dramatically. According to a survey conducted on April 11 by the French Institute for the Study of Public Opinion (IFOP), 18.5% of the French were ready to vote for the leader of the extreme left - in just a week, Melanshon managed to get 3.5 percentage points, closely approaching the third place in the Fiona (19%). The centrist Emmanuel Macron, on the contrary, lost three percentage points over the past week - 23% of voters would vote for him. The head of the National Front, Marin Le Pen, also lost her voters a bit, but nevertheless she remained in the first place in polls (24%). However, voters' moods are so volatile that a survey conducted only three days later, on April 14, recorded a different alignment: Macron broke into leaders, ahead of Le Pen to 1 percentage point - 24% against 23%.

Many analysts explain the breakthrough of the extreme left melanchon, the obvious lag of the moderately left Benois Amon, candidate from the social party, - only 8% of the French would cast votes for him. “I will vote for Melanchon, because he has real chances to go to the second round,” admits the 30-year-old translator Muriel. “In general, I always voted for candidates from the social party and now I would like to support Benois Amon, but I am afraid that he will not go on the second round and the left will not have his candidate.” After the victory in the primaries of the social party, Amon did not manage to consolidate either members of his own party or the left electorate as a whole. In fear, the levocentrists are going to vote for Macron without their candidate in the second round, and the radical left -wing ones are for melanchon.

“We have 10% unemployed. All production moves abroad. And they send us these unfortunate people from Africa and the Middle East. How will we feed them, if we ourselves have nothing to eat? "

"French Chavez"

The sudden breakthrough of the leader of the extreme left frightened the French conservatives no less than the success of the nationalist Le Pen. The main right-wing newspaper Le Figaro came out with the heading in the first lane: “Melanshon: a delusional project of the French Chavez”, hinting at the sympathy of the leader of the “rebellious France” to the dictators of ladies. In several lanes, economists and political scientists explain the failure of the election program of the candidate from the extreme left and the danger of his victory in the elections for the future united Europe.

Melanshon really has many similarities with the leader of the National Fleet. Just like Le Pen, the Melanshon nominated his candidacy for the presidential election single -handedly, not consulting with the one -partyists and not conducting the primaries. This caused a wave of discontent in the ranks of the “Left Front” - the coalition of the extreme left -wing parties that supported the Melanshon in the 2012 elections. Then he left the “Left Front” and announced the creation of a new election movement.

Like Le Pen, the melanchon does not hide his aversion to the Euroburcrates - in case of victory, he intends to immediately put Brussels and Berlin Ultimatum: the write -off of most of the sovereign debt of EU members; unification of tax policy in relation to large business in the countries of the European Union (to suppress fiscal dumping of individual states); way out of free trade agreements with third countries, for example with Canada, and the termination of negotiations on a similar agreement with the United States; Devaluation of the euro to parity with the dollar, etc. In addition, the Melanshon is in solidarity with Le Pen that France should leave NATO.

Both Le Pen and Melanshon call themselves anti -systemic candidates. And one more thing: like the leader of the nationalists, the Melanshon accuses all the journalists and political scientists of the conspiracy and is not embarrassed by the most sharp expressions when communicating with the press. The traditional media Melanshon prefers communication with voters through social networks. He has more than a million subscribers on Twitter, and his video messages in YouTube are gaining half a million views.

Equal to Moscow

Finally, like Le Pen, Melanshon is considered to be a “pro -Russian candidate”. The ardent anti-Americanist and critic of NATO, the leader of the extreme left in 2014 publicly declared the “vital interests” of Russia in Crimea, who could not allow Putin to “sit idly by”. Melanshon consistently opposes sanctions against Moscow, supports Russian actions in Syria and promises to call an international conference after his election to “discuss” the boundaries in Europe. “We need to return to the question of the borders again. The border between Russia and Ukraine is located on the other side of the Crimean peninsula or from this? I don't know. We need to talk about this, ”said Melanshon during the pre -election television reeds.

In general, the theme of Russia has become almost a central in the course of the election campaign. The media already divide candidates into two camps. It is customary to enroll in the "Prooputinsky camp" from the "Big Five", in addition to the melanchon, who receives political and financial support from Moscow Le Pen and Putin's friend Francois Fiion. The “anti -Russian” candidates include Macron, who openly talks about the threat of Moscow’s intervention in the French elections and declares cyber attacks on the servers of his campaign headquarters. In the same camp, the candidate from the Socialist Party Benois Amon - he condemns the annexation of Crimea, the war in the Donbass and the support of Putin Bashar al -Assad.

By the way, from candidates for the Champs Elysees, only Macron and Amon publicly spoke out on the topic of the investigation widely discussed in the French press about the brutal persecution of gays in Chechnya, while other candidates discussed their vision of the future Franco-Russian relations on a round table organized by the Franco-Russian Dialogue-it is headed Ex-head of Russian Railways Vladimir Yakunin and the “main lobbyist of the Kremlin” in France, deputy Thierry Mariani.

The needs of young people

The critical factor for the results of the first round remains the percentage of voters on the voting day. According to IFOP on April 11, the percentage of unlawed can be a record 32%, almost the same - 29% - one and a half weeks before the vote did not decide on the choice. It is the low activity of voters that contributes to the breakthrough of the “extreme” candidates, the French experts explain: the electorate of “moderate” candidates is disappointed in the policy of traditional right and left, replacing each other for decades, and now it is clearly passive.

The lowest turnout is expected among young people. According to iFop, only 48% of the French aged 18 to 25 are going to vote. “Because none of the candidates protects my interests,” is the most common answer that sociologists from young citizens who declare that they are not going to go to polling stations, the Le Monde newspaper writes. Since 2012, the number of young people has been growing, confident that the elections will not change anything - neither in society nor in their lives.

Indifference to the current elections is explained by the inconsistency of the programs of candidates and real expectations of youth. According to Le Monde, those points in the pre -election programs of candidates that are aimed at attracting young voters, do not enjoy their support. So, for example, 71% of the French aged 18 to 25 years against the proposals of Fiion and Melanshon on a decrease in electoral qualification to 16 years. Only 48% in the same age category support the idea of ​​Melanchon and Amon to legalize marijuana. And the universal basic income proposed by the candidate-socialist for all Frenchmen under 26 years old finds support only in 52% of this seemingly most target audience.

But 73% of voters under the age of 25 approve of the proposed Marin Le Penies to protect the French labor market from migrants from countries with cheap labor. 64% (!) Young French people have a positive responding to the promise of Emmanuel Macron to return the universal compulsory service in the army. The same number of young voters consider it necessary to extend the state of emergency in the country. “The main need of today's French youth is the need to defend,” says sociologist Mathieu, on the pages of Le Monde.

“I see how hatred wakes up in people. People are no longer embarrassed to say that they will vote for Le Pen and repeat all the nonsense after her about migrants who take their work from the French and arrange terrorist attacks here ”

Quite a systemic "National

Young people are divided into those who are not at all interested in politics, and those who are going to vote for radical candidates, whether Le Pen or Melanshon. “A distinctive feature of the present youth - she looks at the National Fleet as an ordinary system party,” a political scientist, an extremely right -hand Joel Gomben specialist, explains in a conversation with NT. -If 15 years ago 16%, received by Jean-Mari Le Penom and allowed him to go into the second round of the presidential election, have become a shock for the whole of France, now 24%that sociologists take his daughters in the first round of voting. No one will go out into the street (protest against the National Fleet. - NT) on the night after the first round, as it was in 2002, ”the expert is sure.

“We say that there is no work left for us in our own country,” we are called xenophobes. We say that France choked in violence and terrorist attacks - we are recorded in Islamofobs. We say that in separate quarters we can’t go outside and not be buried for too vulgar, according to some, clothes-we are accused of racism, ”Marin Le Pen, who is returning from the meeting, is indignant in a conversation with NT 27-year-old French. - We have 10% unemployed. All production moves abroad. And they send us these unfortunate people from Africa and the Middle East. How will we feed them if we ourselves have nothing to eat? "

“I see how hatred wakes up in people. People are no longer embarrassed to say that they will vote for Le Pen, and repeat all the nonsense after her about migrants who take their work from the French and arrange terrorist attacks here. I am an immigrant myself, and it’s hard for me to hear it, ”says Francesco, a man of about fifty, the owner of a restaurant in a suburbs of Paris. Together with his wife and children, he has been living in France for more than ten years. - Five years ago, during the past elections, this was not the case. There was no aggression, people did not divide others into their and strangers, did not blame the visitors of their own financial difficulties. And now I can’t say that this is everywhere, among my customers I have heard such conversations only a few times. But more and more often I have to remember that I am a visiting one here. ”

Thinking a little more, Francesco adds: “I don’t know what will happen if Le Pen wins. I wanted to make repairs in the restaurant, but now I decided to wait for the end of the elections, maybe I just have to sell the business and leave. ”

Photo: Jean-Pierre Clatot/AFP/East News