Endon Garmaev: “I do not pursue the goal of somehow protecting the construction of a hydroelectric power station by the Mongols”

From the point of view of hydrology, there is nothing dangerous in the Mongolian hydroelectric power stations. But the reason why both the Russian leadership and the public oppose the construction of hydraulic structures in the Selenga basin is that the "receiving reservoir" in this case is Lake Baikal, a UNESCO World Natural Heritage Site.

This was stated in an interview with the Buryat Inform-Polis by the director of the Baikal Institute of Nature Management of the Russian Academy of Sciences Endon Garmaev.

The scientist recalled that in the 1960s and 1970s, Soviet designers really studied the potential of Mongolian rivers. But at that time, Baikal was not a VPN object (it was included in the UNESCO List only in 1996), and therefore "was considered as an ordinary water body." In addition, at that time there was no need to comply with the level regime, which was prescribed for the lake by Russian government decree No. 234 of 2001. And then there were generally high-water years: “There were no problems with the filling of the reservoir, therefore, the water levels of the lake were consistently high, in contrast to what we are seeing today. And now our region is in a low-water phase that has dragged on for almost 20 years, which has led to a problem with the level regime of the receiving reservoir, already in the status of an object of all mankind, ”Garmaev noted.

“I do not pursue the goal of somehow protecting the construction of the hydroelectric power station by the Mongols. In this case, I speak as a hydrologist and a person who has been professionally involved in river flow calculations for many years, ”the scientist specially emphasized. He singled out the problem of desertification in Mongolia, and the acute task associated with this in supplying water to the population and industry (“this is facilitated by climate change, which has had a particularly strong impact on the elevated territory of the Mongolian plateau”). He also agreed with the well-known assertion of the Mongolian side that hydroelectric power stations in the Selenga basin could become "a boon for Russia." “When operating large reservoirs, it is possible to regulate the flow of the river in the downstream - by discharging the accumulated water in limiting periods, thereby increasing the volume of water entering the receiving reservoir. Also, the reservoir allows you to avoid large floods in the lower settlements, delaying flood waters in its reservoir,” Garmaev said. But he immediately made a reservation: “We must not forget that in this case we are talking about the construction of hydraulic structures, therefore, the regulation of the flow on the main tributary of the UNESCO site, and not on an ordinary watercourse.”

The topic of natural or man-made disasters that could destroy dams was also touched upon. Garmaev recalled that during the construction of any hydraulic structure, such risks are calculated and minimized - as an example, he cited a flood on the Amur River in the summer of 2013, the main blow of which was taken by the Zeya reservoir (“There was an event that can be observed once in 500 years and the hydroelectric dam survived, to the credit of the designers and builders”). He also stated that no "tsunami" tens of meters high in the event of the destruction of dams in Mongolia (if they are built) will definitely not reach Ulan-Ude - simply because any tsunami is possible only over the seas. “It is a pity that some exaggerate the problems of Baikal in order to receive political and other dividends, without delving into its essence,” the scientist complained.

And then, for some reason, he walked around the Irkutsk hydroelectric power station, stating that “this facility was built in a seismically hazardous zone, and in the event, God forbid, a breakthrough or something else that could happen to the facilities located below, I don’t even want to think.” “In the case of forcing the level through the dam of the Irkutsk hydroelectric power station, it is impossible to reset, due to the modern development of the floodplain and the Angara islands in the downstream, increased water consumption, provided for by the same rules for the use of water resources,” Garmaev emphasized. What this passage was about is completely incomprehensible, given that over the six decades of operation, the Irkutsk HPP has never exceeded the design levels of water flow (6 thousand cubic meters / second). And the seismic stability of the dam is confirmed by various calculations.

However, everything falls into place, if you read on. “Already today, a draft federal document has been prepared, according to which it is proposed to legalize the filling of the lake to a mark of 457.85 m relative to the Pacific level, that is, to exceed the permissible water level by 85 cm. This is how we are preparing for a high-water cycle, unfortunately,” continued Garmaev. And he issued the following statement: “I would not like to speak badly, but it turns out that the more water in Baikal, the better the Irkutsk side. Meanwhile, this is the third time in a row that the water level has been drawn below 456.0 m, and the fact that the Selenga delta is exposed, there are problems with shallow bays and sors on the east coast is not important. But after all, it was possible during this time to take measures to provide water to the population and business entities even at low water levels in the Angara.” In general, a hackneyed record about who is to blame for the problems of Baikal sounded in this interview as well.

In the end, Garmaev recalled what he spoke about at the final meeting of public hearings on the Mongolian hydroelectric power plants in Ulan-Ude on March 31: that the experience of sharing transboundary water resources has already been gained in world practice. “In our particular case, the limiting factor is Baikal as a UNESCO site, and here a special approach is required,” the director of the BIP SB RAS emphasized again. After his speech, Garmaev complained, “comments appeared on the Internet that I was on the side of the Mongols, and even one social activist I respected suspected me of working out some kind of contract with them.” “We, representatives of science, should try to give the most objective information. Therefore, in this case, the design of protective structures, if it comes to this, requires a deep scientific justification, detailed hydraulic and hydrodynamic studies of the channel and floodplain of the Selenga, mathematical modeling of the passage of floods of rare frequency with an assessment of flood zones and the effectiveness of flood control structures. And the other extreme is the modeling of discharges into the downstream in dry years, that is, the base flow must be determined, below which it cannot be discharged so as not to harm the Baikal ecosystem, ”the scientist noted.