The main task of the September elections is to elect as many deputies as needed to overcome the municipal filter in the mayoral elections, explains Gudkov / M. Stulov / Vedomosti

This weekend, Moscow will host a Congress of Municipal Candidates, organized by former State Duma deputy Dmitry Gudkov, who has announced his desire to run for Moscow mayor in 2018. According to him, more than 1,000 people registered on the website, and about 200 had to be eliminated. One deputy's campaign requires $1,500, and the money will be raised through fundraising, he says. The main goal of the September elections is to elect as many deputies as are needed to overcome the municipal filter in the mayoral elections, Gudkov explains, that is, at least one deputy in 110 of Moscow's 146 districts.

Also on the weekend, Mikhail Khodorkovsky's Open Russia is holding an educational forum for candidates for municipal deputies. According to Timur Valeev, the head of the Open Elections project, 200 people have been trained in their school for municipal deputies. In total, they plan to support 100 candidates - some publicly, some privately, in particular, some Yabloko members, says Valeev: "We are ready to provide methodological assistance, they will conduct the campaign with their own money. We estimate the cost of one candidate's campaign at 100,000-200,000 rubles."

Natalia Shavshukova, co-founder of the School of Local Self-Government, which aims to get more civil activists elected to parliament, hopes to create cross-party teams among opposition candidates. She estimates that the cost of a campaign for a new person is 50,000 rubles. Their school has graduated 500 people, some of whom overlap with candidates from Gudkov or Open Russia, she says: “Candidates from different parties come to study with us. A party license is important for candidates, since they are afraid of being removed because of signatures, even though very few are needed. However, we warn candidates about the risk of being removed or becoming a victim of behind-the-scenes negotiations if they are running for a party without being a member.”

Party candidates

The primaries have already begun, nomination of participants is underway, there are already more than 1000 applications, the deadline is April 30, says the head of the executive committee of the city branch of United Russia Oleg Smolkin: "From May 11 to 26, meetings of voters with candidates will be held, in total there will be about 350 meetings - according to the number of districts. Each meeting will consist of a presentation of candidates and debates, followed by voting by voters." According to Smolkin, this time the majority of candidates will run from the party, and not as independent candidates, as was the case in 2012: "A party decision was made: we do not think it is right for people to run as independent candidates, besides, current deputies said that nomination from United Russia will add votes to them. In addition, everyone understands that United Russia is the strongest political force in Moscow."

According to Ilya Sviridov, a municipal deputy of A Just Russia, the party began preparing for the elections back in October: "A mandatory requirement is party membership. Next week, the people's candidate program will begin, we plan to post 150,000 announcements in apartment buildings calling for people to become candidates, and in this way we plan to expand the number of party members." According to him, 300 applications have been submitted so far, and training for candidates will begin in May.

Deputy Chairman of the LDPR faction in the State Duma Igor Lebedev says that they would like to close all mandates in the elections, but "there are more vacancies than candidates." The problem is that people do not want to participate in the elections - at the municipal level, everyone knows each other, as soon as someone runs from the opposition, pressure from local administrations begins, Lebedev adds. According to him, the delay in cutting is caused by ordinary technical problems, and there is nothing wrong with five-mandate districts, but they can confuse voters.

Photo.

100 years since the introduction of universal suffrage in Russia

Politics / Photo

Moscow City Duma deputy Andrei Klychkov says that they currently have 1,287 candidates, they intend to nominate candidates for each mandate up for grabs, "we are 90% ready now." According to Klychkov, the authorities will do everything possible to ensure low turnout, and he also considers five-mandate districts, which are aimed at "creating maximum difficulties," to be a problem. Currently, most districts in Moscow have five mandates - you will need to vote for five candidates at once on the ballot. He calls increased turnout the key to the opposition's success: "If turnout is at the level of 6-8%, then administrative resources will prevail. Representatives of district youth chambers, school principals, doctors, etc. are currently participating in the United Russia primaries, and it is clear that with low turnout they will be able to mobilize their resources. If turnout is more than 10%, then United Russia will have problems." The division of districts is strange, says Klychkov, citing the Vykhino-Zhulebino district as an example, one of the districts is divided in half by the Moscow Ring Road: "Half ended up in Vykhino, the other in Zhulebino. That is, in one there are houses that will be torn down, in the other - new buildings. The question is how the deputies elected in such a district will work." He believes that the ruling party is unlikely to allow school principals and head doctors to meet with voters in their courtyards: "And in these elections, recognition plays a big role, so we understand that working with people is the key to mobilization." After the nomination, the communists will discuss the issue of forming teams with other opposition candidates, he says.

According to the chairman of Moscow Yabloko, Sergei Mitrokhin, the party has about 150 candidates, they are trying to attract city activists: "Our goal is to support a candidate for mayor of Moscow, at the moment from the Yabloko party this is my candidacy." Earlier, Dmitry Gudkov said that he would also like to be nominated by Yabloko. The party plans to resolve this issue closer to the elections. According to Mitrokhin, the authorities will approve the election dates at different times, while he does not see anything terrible in five-mandate districts - "there is a chance for an opposition candidate to slip through."

The press service of the Party of Growth reported that they have submitted 378 applications to their municipal school, and they plan to nominate 500 candidates in total. The party itself will not pay for the election campaigns, but will provide legal and political technology assistance: "The collection of signatures will become one of the campaign visits to voters."

Political strategist Andrei Bogdanov, known for founding a number of spoiler parties, also plans to put up his candidates for the elections. According to him, he wants to register 3,000 candidates, some of whom will come from the Democratic Party of Russia, the CPSU and other parties, and some as independent candidates.

Campaign Forecasts

In municipal elections, traditional methods of communication, such as the media, are of little use; candidates need to form support groups through meetings with voters, says Konstantin Kostin, head of FORGO: "The campaign will be quite difficult; strong candidates and the corresponding party infrastructure are needed to mobilize voters; for example, forming your own support groups through public figures is difficult, especially in the summer." United Russia will nominate almost 100% of candidates; 80% have a high chance of being elected, he believes: United Russia has learned the lessons of Shchukino, so it will not make the same mistakes." In his opinion, the current deputies, who participated in resolving specific issues and have recognition, are in a better situation: "High mobilization is not needed in these elections; 300-400 people can decide the outcome of the vote."

"United Russia" will nominate candidates itself, unlike in 2012, when many ran as independent candidates amid protests and a lowered party rating, recalls ISEPI Research Director Alexander Pozhalov: "When there is no unifying party marker in a multi-mandate district, many loyal voters simply voted for one or two candidates instead of five - and this helped the opposition and independents come in fourth or fifth place." The main feature of the elections, according to him, will be low turnout: "This increases the chances of the ruling party, which finds it easier to mobilize the electorate, and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, whose electorate goes to the polls in a disciplined manner. In addition, activists who work on the hot protest agenda of a specific neighborhood and can bring their cluster of houses to the polls under this may benefit from low turnout." The second feature Pozhilov names are multi-mandate, most often 4- and 5-mandate, districts: “Parties, primarily United Russia, have the opportunity to put together a team with candidates from different spheres, where each one has its own electorate in the piggy bank of the whole five.”

Currently, local protests are at about the same level as in 2012, but thanks to the current functionality of municipal deputies, those who were actively involved in the topic of yard improvement and housing and communal services will be able to receive dividends, says the expert. According to him, the topic of five-story buildings will also be actively used: "Whoever convinces that he helped residents solve their problem - to get the house included in the program or, conversely, to keep the house out of it - will receive support." He believes that the protest field will be blurred, and the formation of inter-party teams is unlikely to work for the opposition, since it is difficult to convince voters to simultaneously put ticks for the CPRF and Yabloko, Pozhilov believes. Therefore, it is unlikely that at least one opposition party will have one deputy in 110 districts, several parties in total are possible. However, he doubts that they will exchange votes when passing the municipal filter: “So the authorities will control the municipal filter unless something unexpected happens that will inflate the turnout – for example, a strong push to demolish five-story buildings or if Navalny suddenly starts actively advertising these elections.”

Full version of the article. The abridged newspaper version can be viewed in the Vedomosti archive (smart version)

The opposition is approaching the mayor through deputies