Vitaly Portnikov: Third World

Can the Third World War begin tomorrow? Well, for example, in the event that the North Korean dictator decides to once again twitch the tiger by the mustache, will not believe that the American "strategic patience" at the end, and arrange some kind of missile test near Tokyo or Seoul? Will Russia and China try to protect the DPRK in case of decisive measures of the United States? And North Korea itself? Is she ready for the use of nuclear weapons? To the organization of technogenic disasters in the south of the Korean Peninsula? To the transformation of space around itself - and yourself - into a scorched desert? And how will the main players of the region and the world behave in this case? Will they agree? Will come to the confrontation? Will this confrontation with economic sanctions or debate at the UN or will you start a real war?

In fact, we do not know the answer to this question - how on the eve of the beginning of the First and Second World Wars it was impossible to predict the sequence of actions that led to the tragic finale. Big wars always begin not from planning, but from inconsistency and misunderstanding of a possible reaction of a potential enemy. The third world is no exception. But what can be said with all confidence is that it will not look like the first or the second. And this is the main problem of those who are trying to prepare for it.

It may turn out that we have been living in the Third World War for a year now

Humanity - this is the peculiarity of our psyche and perception of the world - is always prepared not for the wars that will be, but for those wars that were. That is why the question that they ask today when they reflect on a possible collision of civilizations must be formulated correctly. We are not really interested in whether the Third World War will begin. Interested in whether the second world will resume.

Because the war of the war of military films - bombing, shelling and, of course, the worst in the finale - Hiroshima. But the Third World War will not be similar to the second. The risks of the Second World War are obvious even for the most crazy and untied dictators, and after its end, a huge number of technologies appeared, allowing you to fight completely differently.

When years later we will analyze the history of the beginning of our millennium, it may turn out that we have been living in the Third World War for a year. That Russia's attack on Georgia and Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea, the war for Syria, cyber surge in the American presidential elections, attempts by the DPRK and Iran to get nuclear weapons - this was the beginning of such a war. Who said that in our time they must be declared war in our time? It was at the beginning of the First World War ceremonial monarchs exchanged notes. And when the second began, the aggressor did not always inform the victim about his intentions. The rules have changed, they are changing now. The start date of the Third World War may be generally unknown. Or this date is well known to us - we just have not yet understood what it really means.

However, history teaches that a contemporary is completely optional to know the date of the beginning of the World War. For him, the most important thing is to live until its end.

Vitaly Portnikov - Kiev journalist, author and host of the Radio Liberty program "Road to Freedom"

Opinions expressed under the heading "Law" may not reflect the point of view of the Radio Liberty editorial