Hybrid war like terror

Ukraine accuses Russia of terrorism, but where is the beginning of terrorism?

Vitaliy Portnikov: Ukraine has repeatedly put forward claims against Russia not only in a hybrid war, but also in real terrorist activity. How substantiated are these claims? How does terrorism differ in general from a hybrid war? In order to discuss these issues, we invited Radio Radio Freedom of the Russian political scientist, director of the Center for Research of Central and Eastern Europe, Alexander Sytin , and the former deputy chairman of the Security Service of Ukraine Alexander Skipalsky .

Alexander Sytin: What we are now denoting the word "terror" in Russia has received a name for sabotage activity. The idea that sabotage activity should be carried out in relation to Ukraine is not new, it has long been extended in the Russian expert community. She especially began to develop after it became clear that the Novorossiya project did not take place, and questions arose about what means to further destabilize Ukraine. The economic means of destabilization, too, apparently, do not work, now only one thing remains - sabotage activity. I think that the difference is as follows: for those who defend themselves, for Ukraine, this is terrorism, and for those who attack, this is sabotage activity.

Vitaly Portnikov: Do you agree that the point is in terms, and not in the actions themselves?

Today, terrorism and sabotage activity are just a hybrid war

Alexander Skipalsky: Yes, the terms can be different. If you plunge into the history of terrorism in the territory of the Russian Empire ...

Vitaly Portnikov: We are at the Center for Terrorist Activity: by the way, in the territory of the Russian Empire, Kiev was one of the main such centers.

Alexander Skipalsky: I would say that today terrorism and sabotage activity are precisely the components of a hybrid war. The classic of intelligence and sabotage activities is General Sudoplatov . On the eve of the war and during the war, all the Russian special services set their tasks sabotage activity around the world, primarily on transit routes. Even in neutral Norway, a whole sabotage group was being prepared to undermine ships that drove ore and coal to Germany. In the military plans of Russia, elements of sabotage activity or terrorism are legalized. This is their handwriting, this is their normal, everyday, planned activity - the preparation of terrorist or sabotage activity.

Vitaliy Portnikov: By the way, when the former State Duma deputy Denis Voronenkov was killed , very many paid attention to how the handwriting of this murder, his preparation, the figure of Killer, how it all happened and covered in the Moscow media was like the murder of Leo Trotsky in Mexico: as if an imaginary ally, with the same explanations that a person who should be his follower, who should be his follower, he should be a follower, who should be his follower, who should be his follower He killed him - inner raspings among enemies ...

Alexander Sytin: They cannot come up with and bring anything new, they repeat certain schemes, really considering the classic of the same Sudoplatov. The murder of Voronenkov was preceded by a fairly active campaign in the Russian media on charges that he is a traitor, that he is threatening ... So everything is repeated.

Vitaly Portnikov: The question is how to resist this. The Ukrainian special services, it would seem, should be prepared for such wars and for this kind of terror.

Alexander Skipalsky: Where is the readiness?

Vitaly Portnikov: From the general root - from the KGB of the USSR.

People who contributed to the creation of independent Ukraine came and lustrated those who did not do this

Alexander Skipalsky: In democratic Ukraine, we are lustrated. Your humble servant is lustful. I was saved by the fact that I am retired, and by law I am lustful. You understand what a stupid law: people who contributed to the creation of independent Ukraine came and lustful those who did not do this: everyone turned upside down. At the same time, not a single agent was lustrated in Ukraine.

Vitaly Portnikov: Do these agents know?

Alexander Skipalsky: Of course. Once, giving an interview, I said that at least two former SBU chairman is former KGB agents. Do you think there was some kind of reaction? Probably, my colleagues in Russia paid attention to this, because there are no such things. And in Ukraine no one even led his ear.

Vitaly Portnikov: Alexander Skipalsky is the only one of my interlocutors among people who have worked in the Ukrainian leadership in the last 25 years who have gone through a lustration process. But it is different here: how much can this Ukraine resist the Russian terror? What are her chances?

What we are now denoting the word "terror" in Russia has received the name of sabotage activity

Alexander Sytin: The main task of Ukraine is now the strengthening of the power vertical and getting rid of those people in the power that sympathize with Russia. These are very complex criteria and very difficult work. But I think that Ukraine is already a little late with the adoption of these measures. Still, in general, it is clear that the Donetsk conflict has moved to the opposition stage (although people who are in the front line of hostilities are unlikely to think so). Most likely, large breakthroughs will no longer be on either side. Accordingly, the intensity of the information war will remain, and such a terrorist threat will be added to the information war.

Alexander Sytin

I am not a specialist in anti -terrorism activities, I can not give any advice, but it is very difficult to do. With such permeability of the boundaries, despite the fact that Russia in its traditions does not hesitate to recruit agents among any segments of the population, from criminals to people who are simply dissatisfied with the regime, anything can happen here.

Vitaly Portnikov: To resist this, you need a strong state. Question: How to build it?

Alexander Skipalsky: I agree with a colleague: Ukraine should prepare. If our power is trying to flirt with obvious opponents of Ukraine, bring them closer to the imperious Olympus, allow them to feel free and at the same time not to bet on a patriotic orientation professionals, then we will lose. They will lose exactly those who are fighting terrorism.

The latest example is the undermining of the SBU Colonel in Mariupol : unfortunately, he died. In the Donbass, Russian proteges are two of some former refueling or washer of cars ... If professionals of this level are not protected, even did not save themselves, then, of course, there are questions about how to organize real professional work to prevent such things. There may be different recipes, but work should be done, otherwise during the period of opposition confrontation, which analysts (including me) evaluate as a long process, the objects of terrorist or sabotage activity will be just those who counteract the aggressor or conduct military operations against it.

The main task of Ukraine is now strengthening the power vertical and getting rid of those people in power that sympathize with Russia

Alexander Sytin: It would be advisable to concentrate the efforts of the expert, reconnaissance and journalistic community on showing the terrorist role of Russia on an international scale, to do everything so that Russia is either at the official level or at least at the level of an unspoken diplomatic agreement in the world as a terrorist state. In the very near future (since the era of the elections in both Ukraine and in a number of European countries) we need to say that this should be opposed, including cyberosis and such directly sabotage manifestations that we are now encountering.

Vitaliy Portnikov: Is it possible to say that the war, which we called the hybrid, passed into the stage of sabotage, or is it ahead?

Alexander Sytin: The first signs of this are already there: undermining in Mariupol, a story with the so -called Polish protest. It began in the spring. I think in Russia they realized that they, in fact, lost, they have no resources to continue further open confrontation through the Donbass. All throwing with passports and the unpreparedness to make some decisions on the Donbass will most likely result in this, especially since conferences, the expert community said a lot about the fact that it is necessary to introduce a peacekeeping contingent without Russia's participation. In the end, all such ideas sooner or later become mainstream, somehow take root.

At least two former SBU chairman is former KGB agents

Alexander Skipalsky: I believe that Russia began to actively carry out reconnaissance and subsidiary activities against Ukraine with Putin's coming to power. This is the only country that undermined our sovereignty, our economic and military power. This has existed for many years, there are simply different forms of reconnaissance and subversive activities: there is an aggressive, bloody form, but there is an economic one.

But I am not tired of repeating that the only country has been conducting reconnaissance and subversive activities against Ukraine for many years: this is Russia.

Vitaly Portnikov: When we learned that Russia is trying to interact with certain groups in Poland and even pays for their services in order to quarrel Ukraine and Poland and create the impression of confrontation between Kiev and Warsaw ... This is a completely separate story, because this happens not only in newspapers, but also at the level of clashes or sabotage activities: a detachment in the cemetery, a shot at the General Consulate, as it was, as it was More recently in Lutsk ... these are completely new things.

Alexander Sytin: Yes, of course. But this indicates that Russia practically ceased to be shy in any means, it is ready to go to the end. This can be seen in the Arab direction, in the Middle East direction, and this is evident in Ukraine.

Russia, of course, will do everything in order to quarrel Ukraine and Poland: as we see, it began to go from the Polish side. Is Poland able to effectively resist this? I think it will show this in the near future.

Vitaliy Portnikov: Doesn't it seem to you that Ukraine in this situation is in the catch -up position? After all, the Ukrainian special services, the Ukrainian state are all the time forced to answer ...

If our power is trying to flirt with obvious opponents of Ukraine, bring them closer to the imperious Olympus, then we will lose

Alexander Skipalsky: Unfortunately, we are catching up. We have not yet been able, except for individual operations, to work on a pre -trial.

I think we are saved by the fact that a large number of Russians live in Ukraine, there are serious connections. If Russia will conduct sabotage, terrorist activities, then it will do it selectively so that there are no mass victims, because it will cause a certain response in Russia.

Alexander Sytin: I do not agree. I believe that the presence of a significant number of Russian and so -called Russian -speaking in Ukraine is the problem of Ukraine, and very serious. Indeed, it is in this environment in the conditions of economic difficulties that Ukraine experiences that one can look for dissatisfied, people who will support the idea of the need to combat “bandashism”, and will perceive all this ideological nonsense. In my opinion, it is necessary to quite effectively withstand the influence of these population groups, at least at the political level.

Vitaly Portnikov: I don’t know whether it is possible to isolate the Russian -speaking population into a certain separate political group.

Alexander Skipalsky: Of course, the presence of a large number of pro -Russian and Russian citizens who live and mourn for Russia ... But Russia, conducting sabotage activities, cannot decide on mass attacks, because it will cause damage to it itself and will cause a response, that is, they simply hold back the number of possible victims of terrorist activity.

Alexander Skipalsky

Vitaly Portnikov: Do you mean that they will not shoot at their own?

In Russia, they realized that they, in fact, lost, they have no resources to continue further open confrontation through the Donbass

Alexander Sytin: Yes. Of course, it is impossible to isolate them into a special group. But I studied in sufficient detail the Baltic countries, and such a policy was adopted there: Russian people had to prove something in order to be considered trustworthy and full-fledged citizens.

Vitaly Portnikov: Yes, but the fact is that there is an ethnic difference between Latvians, not even Latvian -language (there are Russian -speaking Latvians who arrived after 1940), and Russians who even know the Latvian language ... But it always seemed to me that in Ukraine it was a difference of a political nature. There are simply a huge number of Russian-speaking Ukrainians (and even, by the way, Russians) ... There are also Russians who speak Ukrainian perfectly, but the difference in political choice does not coincide with the linguistic and ethnic border, especially after 2014.

Alexander Sytin: Yes, it does not match. It is quite difficult to conduct this line, but, one way or another, you will have to do it.

Alexander Skipalsky: Another detail that we must take into account is the genetic code of Ukrainians and Russians. Russians in their genetic past are conquerors, since the time of Ivan the Terrible they expanded by seizing foreign lands. And Ukrainians in their environment were engaged in more peaceful things, mobilized only to defense.

Vitaly Portnikov: Do you really think that in some city where ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians live (in the Dnieper, for example, or in Kharkov), ethnic Ukrainians are very different from ethnic Russians?

Russians in their genetic past are conquerors, they have expanded since the time of Ivan the Terrible by seizing foreign lands

Alexander Skipalsky: No. And they should not be divided, because the main factor in the association is an attitude to your country.

Vitaly Portnikov: I talk about this. No one knows where to draw this line, so we pursue it politically. And we, by the way, see that somewhere in Lviv or Uzhgorod there may be people who speak Ukrainian better than us Alexander Alexandrovich, but at the same time, they may turn out to be advocates of the "Russian world".

Alexander Sytin: And this is just a manifestation of a hybrid war, when it is generally very difficult to draw any boundaries when each person, in fact, makes his mental choice in the direction of one or another, turns out to be one or another line of the front.

Vitaliy Portnikov: I can give an example of such a mental choice - this is a vote on the announcement of the Holodomor with genocide, when the entire faction of the Party of Regions , which was then headed by Viktor Yanukovych, voted against, with the exception of two deputies - members of this faction from Lviv: only their hand did not rise to vote against. But everyone else (and there were a large number of Ukrainian -language Ukrainians) voted in the way the party decided.

Alexander Sytin: Here you have a criterion, or rather, a manifestation of this criterion.

Vitaly Portnikov: I think now many of these people have parted in political positions. The question is what remains in the mentality.

Still, historically Ukraine and Russia lived in the same empire for 300 years, and sooner or later the war will stop

Alexander Skipalsky: The mentality develops throughout the life of many generations. Nevertheless, historically, Ukraine and Russia lived in the same empire for 300 years, and we want or do not want, sooner or later (it is better that early) the war will cease, and in any case we will have good-neighborly relations-at least I want this and believe in it. But many of my colleagues in Ukraine do not understand why Putin and the whole power top to unleash the war against Ukraine, in fact, against his most potentially reliable partner, wherever he was: in NATO or in Europe - Ukrainians could always build their relations with Russia is good at Russia. No, it was necessary to use the principle of "hit your neighbor to be afraid of strangers."

Alexander Sytin: Because initially Russia sets the task of preserving the empire, imperial borders. She is interested in, if not the inclusion of Ukraine in the composition of this empire, then at least the establishment of power in Ukraine, which they could completely rule from the Kremlin.

Alexander Skipalsky: This is a good answer, but it is tied to the past. I would like both in Russia and here they looked into the future, at how the new geopolitical world will be built.

Vitaly Portnikov: If people could answer such questions, we would not discuss terror or sabotage war now. No new world is definitely built on terror.