May's Impermanence

On April 18, British Prime Minister Theresa May announced her intention to hold early elections to the House of Commons on June 8. Why?

There is something to be surprised about: last June, May categorically stated that there would be no early elections, since no one needs shocks while the Brexit procedure is underway, and the next elections will be held on the date established by law, namely in 2020.

The law referred to by the prime minister at the time is called The Fixed-term Parliaments Act. It was adopted in 2011 at the initiative of the government of David Cameron. At the time, the Conservatives and their parliamentary coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats, touted the act as an important step in improving the democratic machinery. After all, the announcement of early elections by governments, they said, often becomes an instrument of opportunistic games and does nothing for the people and the country; now the deputies will know for sure that they will work in parliament for all the required five years.

And then suddenly a 180 degree turn.

Theresa May herself explained this by the actions of the opposition: “You criticized the government’s plans related to Brexit, you questioned our goals, you threatened to block the bills that we are going to submit to parliament.” These actions by Labor, according to the prime minister, "jeopardize the work that needs to be done to prepare for Brexit at home, and weaken the government's position in negotiations in Europe." And the conclusion: "If we do not hold elections now, these political games will continue."

Indeed, the ruling Conservative Party has a shaky majority in the House of Commons and is forced to look to the opposition. Meanwhile, public opinion polls show an unprecedented advantage of the Tories, ahead of Labor in popularity by at least 20 points. The Whigs are split, with insurmountable ideological differences between the radical left leadership led by Jeremy Corbyn and the centrists from the parliamentary faction.
If you listen to political technologists, then the Conservatives can get an overwhelming majority in the new House of Commons - 100 seats, or even more. The temptation to secure a quiet life for another five years, including for the entire nervous period of the Brexit negotiations and then for the difficult years after leaving the EU, was strong. So the prime minister decided to take a sharp turn (according to her, reluctantly).

Labor could have stopped May: to repeal the current law on a fixed term for parliament, a constitutional majority is required - the votes of 2/3 of deputies. And they voted: 522 votes in favor and only 13 against. Everything is clear with the conservatives - party discipline. And the leadership of the Laborites has long advocated early elections: the election campaign is an occasion to declare oneself at meetings with voters, once again to stigmatize the ruling party. No wonder they say that Corbyn, in all his life experience, is an excellent organizer of rallies, demonstrations, protests, but by no means a state leader.

Over the past year, representatives of the prime minister and members of the cabinet have repeated more than once or twice: there will be no early elections. And then suddenly a 180 degree turn