Translated material
Borrow from under the mattress
The volume of the first issue of federal loan bonds for the population (OFZ-n) is 15 billion rubles. The declared goal is to increase the financial literacy of the population. But not only: the budget deficit needs to be closed with something, reserve funds are on the verge of depletion, and the West can no longer borrow money - sanctions. The people remain, however, most of them are not very rich: according to the estimates of the National Financial Research Agency (NAFI), only 36% of the population have savings and savings (deposits, securities, etc.). But these 36% in bank accounts, according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, had accumulated 24 trillion rubles by February of this year. About another 3.8 trillion rubles, according to analysts of the Central Bank, people keep “under their mattresses” (data as of October 2016). And the federal budget deficit for 2017 is 2.753 trillion rubles. If you manage to agitate the people to show universal "financial activity", not only will it be possible to close the budget hole, but also a trillion will remain on top.
The promised yield of bonds will decrease at the time of their purchase. You will have to pay a commission to the Bank - from 0.5% to 1.5% of the total value of the purchased bonds
Bond educational program
Television has already launched an advertisement for "people's bonds". Their maturity is three years. The face value of one bond is 1 thousand rubles, but it will not work to buy OFZ for a “couple of thousands” - at least 30 thousand. An upper ceiling has also been set within a single issue - 15 million rubles. (at first it was assumed that the maximum lot would be 25 million). You cannot hold these bonds in your hands, since they will exist only in electronic form, and the possession of a virtual “security” will be confirmed by an OFZ holder account statement.
Bond holders are promised an average yield of 8.5% per annum (in other words, the invested 100 thousand rubles should bring 8.5 thousand rubles of profit in a year, and 25.5 thousand in three years). It is possible to exchange virtual papers back for money before the expiration of the three-year period, but the interest will be paid only for the expired full year.
OFZs are sold only in two authorized banks - Sberbank of Russia and VTB 24. There is no secondary market for bonds, which means that it will not work to buy them cheaper and sell them more expensive. As Deputy Minister of Finance of Russia Sergey Storchak explained, the restriction was introduced to protect unqualified investors who could lose money by getting involved in financial games without proper preparation.
Advantages and disadvantages
How much does it make sense to invest in OFZ-n? Judging by the officially announced level of inflation, money will indeed not only be saved, but also increased: last year, according to Rosstat, prices rose by 5.4%, the forecast for this year is 5.2%. (True, the subjective feelings of losing weight are not so optimistic, but statistics never lie, do they?)
OFZ-n look quite competitive in comparison with other investment options. In March, banks charged on ruble deposits from 8.19% to 9.5% per annum. The best of the non-state pension funds showed returns ranging from 8% to 14.7% per annum. Mutual investment funds earned 6.71–9.9% per annum for investors. Bonds of Russian issuers, according to experts, will bring 10-11% per annum in 2017.
However, the promised yield of bonds will decrease already at the time of their purchase. You will have to pay the bank a commission - from 0.5% to 1.5% of the value of the purchased bonds, depending on the amount of the transaction: from 30 thousand to 50 thousand rubles. - 1.5%, or 450–750 rubles; from 50 thousand to 300 thousand rubles. - 1%, or 750-3000 rubles; from 300 thousand rubles - 0.5%, or from 1500 rubles. In case of early repayment, the same commission will have to be paid again. In other words, at best, you can count on an average annual return of 7-8%, and with early repayment - 5.5-7.5%.
An alternative to a deposit
Representatives of the Ministry of Finance, in particular the same Deputy Minister Sergei Stochak, assure that citizens will receive a reliable financial instrument in which they can invest their savings at a decent percentage, and the economy will be replenished with money that the population has a dead weight. And most importantly, the state guarantees payments on bonds. A default, that is, a refusal to service the debt, similar to what happened in August 1998, is not expected in the coming years, the Ministry of Finance assures.
Natalia Orlova, Chief Economist and Head of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis at Alfa-Bank, also sees a plus in the appearance of an additional investment tool for people. However, in her opinion, OFZ-n are unlikely to be popular with the general public, rather qualified investors will pay attention to them.
Bonds can become an alternative to a bank deposit, Bogdan Zvarich, an analyst at FINAM Group of Companies, believes: “The risks of investing in OFZ are significantly lower than with a bank deposit, even taking into account deposit insurance. In addition, OFZs are available to the general population. People get the opportunity to invest money without unnecessary complications like opening a brokerage account and at higher interest rates than in a bank.” According to the expert, the bonds will be of interest to people who have more than 1.4 million rubles of free funds, that is, more than the maximum insurance amount paid on bank deposits: although OFZ-n are not covered by this insurance, the state undertakes to pay for to their debts.
The simplicity, understandability and flexibility of bonds as a financial product was noted by more than half of the participants in a survey conducted in January by the National Financial Research Agency (2 thousand respondents were interviewed). The average amount that respondents could invest in OFZs is 39,301 rubles, that is, at the level of the minimum lot. According to NAFI Director General Guzelia Imayeva, young people show a restrained interest in OFZ-n - they are better versed in financial markets and have a slightly above average savings potential.
“In order to attract money from the population, the state must guarantee people protection from the depreciation of the ruble during the term of circulation of bonds: everyone is afraid of financial crises and collapses of the ruble”
To know the buyback
The main obstacle that the state will face in its attempt to borrow money from the population, experts consider the conservatism of Russians in financial matters.
“Citizens may be distrustful of a new product, and as a result we will not see much demand for it,” Bogdan Zvarych from Finam Group predicts. “It has become customary for people to take out a loan, to have a deposit in a bank. And there is no habit of buying bonds, ”adds Jan Art, vice president of the Association of Regional Banks of Russia. The polls conducted by the National Financial Research Agency also say the same: 87% of those surveyed would prefer to put money in a bank rather than invest in bonds.
Financial market professionals also have doubts about the new instrument. “As a trader, I would refrain from buying OFZ-n,” Jan Art says. - Firstly, I don't like this very definition of bonds - "people's". There is no such financial term, it is a propaganda component, and it is better for a reasonable investor to stay away from propaganda. And the negative experience of the “people's IPO” of VTB Bank has not yet been forgotten. Secondly, Russia is not a very good object for profitable investments. Our economy has been sacrificed to politics.”
The uncertainty of the economic situation in the country and the unpredictability of the actions of the authorities will last at least until the presidential elections in 2018, and this will not contribute to the popularity of bonds, Natalia Orlova believes. In such conditions, both the population and legal entities are usually afraid to make a mistake and keep money to themselves, rather than invest in assets or projects. The expert does not think that the placement of "people's OFZ" will be able to change the picture on the borrowing market. “For 2017, the Ministry of Finance plans to borrow more than 1 trillion rubles, against this background, the issue of bonds for 15 billion rubles. doesn't solve anything. The issue of OFZ-n can be considered just a PR of the Ministry of Finance, ”Orlova notes.
Boris Titov, authorized under the President of the Russian Federation for the protection of the rights of entrepreneurs, also doubts the success of OFZ-n. “The economy, of course, needs funds for investment like air, but it is unlikely that they will be obtained this way,” the business ombudsman believes. - In order to attract money from the population, the state must guarantee people protection from the depreciation of the ruble during the term of circulation of bonds: everyone is afraid of financial crises and collapses of the ruble, which occur in our country with enviable regularity. By the way, even now such a crisis is brewing.”
The state, not investors, should be responsible for the state of the economy, says Boris Titov, and offers a more reliable alternative: “We need to issue index bonds, like in Israel - bonds denominated in rubles should be redeemed at the exchange rate on the maturity date. Such paper will look much more interesting.
As for financial literacy, the Russian population, I think, is all right with it. The training program included pasting the lids of chests and toilet walls with Soviet-era bonds, the loss of hard-earned savings in savings banks during the collapse of the USSR, the precipitous depreciation of earned rubles in the 1990s, optional courses for buying MMM shares and other pyramid schemes, and finally, the very default of 1998 th and recent currency crisis in the winter of 2014–2015. Studying, needless to say, was paid and could eat up all the money available. But the knowledge gained is priceless.
Photo: wikipedia.org