100 days: “I thought it would be easier”

Donald Trump said in an interview after three months in the Oval Office

More recently, Donald Trump insisted that no US president has been able to achieve such phenomenal results in such a short time. This optimism, however, was shared by only half of Americans, and even then at best. And as his “100 days” approached, the owner of the White House began to call this calendar mark an “artificial border” and a “ridiculous criterion.” Trump, of course, is right: it is a symbol and nothing more. The concept of "100 days" did not exist until July 1933, when Franklin Roosevelt, in his third "fireside chat" on the radio, reported to the nation about the first hundred days of his presidency. Since then, journalists and sociologists have used this yardstick regardless of the wishes of the head of state, and presidents have been trying to do more in the first three months. This period is indeed the most favorable for making important decisions, including unpopular ones: the inertia of victory is still strong and the credit of trust has not dried up, and the time for inevitable mistakes and failures is just ahead.

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President Donald Trump could not move away from the victorious euphoria for a long time. After the election, he went on a "victory tour". After taking office, he came up with a new tour with thousands of rallies of supporters. He squandered his political capital, not really understanding how to increase it. The president called the depressing polling data fakes and kept reminding how sociologists missed their pre-election forecasts. But when suddenly in one of the polls his rating jumped to 50%, Trump immediately reposted it on Twitter.

It happened right after the missile salvo in Syria. But the 50 percent rating, calculated by the sociological service Rasmussen Report, remained a lone spike. Other agencies then announced much more modest figures - from 41% to 39%, and Trump's average "approval rating" was 42.4%. (For comparison: the average rating of Barack Obama for all eight years of his presidency is 47.9%).

However, not only the rating itself matters, other factors are also important. Here is the data of one of the most authoritative sociological services in the United States - the Gallup Institute. Immediately after the inauguration on January 20, Trump's positive and negative ratings were almost equal - 45%. In the first week, fluctuations in both directions did not go beyond the statistical error of ± 3%. On January 28, the lines of the graphs began to diverge sharply: 42% of voters approved of Trump's activities as president, 51% disapproved.

Ratings soar with Tomahawk

In the first days of his stay in the White House, President Trump signed several decrees: on the abolition of health care reform, on the freezing of the hiring of employees of federal government agencies, on the US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, on additional protection of the US southern border, etc. Finally, on January 27, the president issued an executive order that banned citizens of seven Muslim countries from entering the United States for 90 days, refugees from any country in the world for 120 days, and refugees from Syria for an indefinite period. Apparently, it was this decree, which ultimately had to be annulled, that brought down the presidential rating.

On February 16, the gap between approval and disapproval widened to 18% - 38% versus 56%. Most likely, this was a reaction to the scandal surrounding national security adviser Michael Flynn, who hid the fact of contacts with Russian ambassador Sergei Kislyak.

On February 28, after Trump's keynote speech at the joint session of the Houses of Congress, the graph lines began to converge: three days later, 43% of Americans approved of the president's actions, 51% - on the contrary, and on March 11, the figures were almost equal - 45% and 49% respectively. Then the gap again began to grow rapidly: in the lower house of Congress, the Republican counter-reform of health care failed, plus the Russian issue again escalated.

The only age group who believe that Trump has succeeded as president is people over 65 years old.

The chart lines converged again after the use of military force in Syria and Afghanistan. The missile attack on Syria, according to one source, appealed to 57-58% of Americans, and according to Gallup - 50%. If Gallup was not mistaken, then since 1983 this is the lowest assessment of the military actions undertaken by the US president (with the exception of the operation in Libya, which was approved by 47% of respondents): the war in Afghanistan in October 2001 was positively assessed by 90% of Americans, in Iraq in March 2003 - 76%.

You can't fire people

Last week, according to Gallup, Trump's activities were considered correct by 39% of US citizens, 56% have a different opinion. Another sociological center - Pew Research - recorded approximately the same ratio: 39:54.

The majority of voters - regardless of the level of education, income, place of residence, ethnicity and religion - give the president a negative assessment. The only age group who believe that Trump has succeeded as president is people over 65 years old. Of these, 50% rated his work positively, 47% negatively. And most of all, Trump suits convinced party Republicans: 88% are sure that he is doing everything right, and only 8% disagree with him.

At the same time, Trump's popularity fell the most among his main electoral support - white men. Detailed data show that there are much more women who are not satisfied with the 45th president than men: only 33% of American women gave him a positive rating, 60% - "failed."

The first 100 days were not Napoleonic for Donald Trump. The president-businessman-showman was summed up by arrogance, passion for show and lack of political experience. He believed that Congress was in his pocket, as long as the Republicans controlled both chambers. It turned out that in addition to party discipline, legislators are concerned about the upcoming re-election.

In a recent interview with Reuters, Donald Trump, speaking about his current job, admitted: "I thought it would be easier." Who would doubt that. Politics is not a private business with sole control, as in the army: in addition to the president, there are other branches of power, as well as the opposition, the press and society. You can't spit in their faces - "You're fired!"

photo: Carolyn Kaster /ap/east news