Arya Gotsdanker: Observation of himself

One of the basic laws of our world is the constant transfer of energy and maintaining the status quo: for each action there is opposition, for each rabbit there is its own fox. All living things have their own niche and its own purpose. The world around you can structure in the form of a food chain or ecological pyramid. This multiple interaction leads to equilibrium environmental systems and self -regulation: the more food appears for hares - the more their population becomes, the more the feed base for hare enemies - predators increases. Nature, therefore, is, on the one hand, in the constant state of movement and struggle, and on the other hand, in a state of dynamic stability. Only an environmental disaster or human intervention can temporarily disrupt this status quo, but in a long period of time the system is still stabilized in one way or another.

A person is knocked out of this natural circle. Humanity defeated all its natural enemies. In the absence of natural enemies, humanity conquered all the continents, changed different ecosystems for itself, up to the creation of their own (for example, the city fauna). A person with incredible greed remakes the whole world, adapting it for his convenience. A person has only one real natural enemy - he himself. The whole history of the development of human civilization is the history of wars, the history of the colonization of lands, conquest, the creation of empires and their crash, then the revival of civilization, a new round of development and the inevitable technogenic or social disaster follow.

The XX century left behind not only the industrial and scientific revolution, but also a series of the largest social disasters in the history of social disasters. This year, on April 24, Israel was celebrated in memory of the victims of the Holocaust, as a result of which more than 6 million Jews were systematically destroyed. When in most countries of the post -Soviet space they massively celebrate the festival of spring and labor and fried barbecue, few people will remember: a century ago, society has stained according to the class attribute, the class struggle of the proletariat and its victory over the dictatorship of the bourgeoisie spilled rivers of blood. Soon after, there was a stratification on a national basis; Behind this is an attempt by the German nation to establish a dictatorship over other European peoples, which led to an even more terrifying number of victims around the world.

Remembering all these events, we ask ourselves - is it possible to repetition? What reasons did the two world wars and revolutions provoked? What can humanity do to prevent this in the future? At the end of the First World War, the League of Nations was created. After the end of World War II, the UN was created. Humanity tried to carry out post -war work on mistakes and form not only international organizations, but also develop experience that will help to avoid catastrophes in the future.

Have we got rid of the threat of wars? No, because the world continues to shake local conflicts. Have we got rid of the threat of a new global confrontation? The future is unknown, but we can make an assumption about it based on the analysis of historical facts. For example, long -term observations of the weather indicate that spring comes in winter, and in the spring - summer. Strictly speaking, we do not know whether autumn will come this year, but we can say that for the entire observation period there was no case when it would happen differently. For the entire period of observation of humanity, no case was recorded when our civilization existed for at least a relatively long time without local or global conflicts.

Humanity has learned to observe nature well, but, unfortunately, it does not know how to observe itself, draw conclusions from its history and change

A lot of effort has been spent on analysis of the cause of global conflicts in order to try to eliminate or minimize the risk of a new catastrophe. Many scientists tried to understand the causes of fascism. Ludwig von Mizes in the work "Almighty Government: a total state and a total war", written before the end of World War II, analyzed the social and economic factors that served the growth of nationalism. The Nazis did not hide that their goal was to conquer the "living space in the East" by enslaving other peoples and the deportation (destruction) of the "racial-no-desirable" population. Each conflict needs some explanatory ideology. In the pre -war period, the Germans carefully sought evidence of the greatness of the German race and other evidence that give them moral rights to dominate. Marxists, Communists considered the separation of society unfair and sought moral justifications for the dominance of one class over another. This need seems to be based in the essence of man. Plato also built such a public pyramid: the estate of the gentlemen, the estate of the guards, the estate of other citizens.

As soon as the economic or environmental conditions change (such as the industrial revolution in Europe), the already fragile balance of interests of various layers of society is violated. This moment can be considered the starting point of accumulation of internal energy, which eventually finds its fault and break out, crushing everything in its path. As geologists observe the movement of tectonic plates, so social psychologists can monitor a smooth change in political and economic conditions and the accumulation of public stress along the intended fault lines. Humanity has learned to observe nature well, predict earthquakes, knows that it can provoke a flood when you can expect another volcano, but, unfortunately, can not watch yourself, draw conclusions from its history and change. Many observations of society made by ancient philosophers are relevant today.

Let us pay attention to the economic history of mankind: the periods of the formation of empires that alternate with periods of the Time of Troubles are clearly noticeable. The unification of people ensures the concentration of resources that can be used, for example, for the development of irrigation systems, which in turn will make it possible to collect large crops and feed more people. These conditions allow you to move to a different form of social structure: from a tribal society - to the power of hierarchs; from feudal fragmentation - to the absolute monarchy; From the specific Russian principalities - to the Russian Empire. But there comes a time when the continuation of the concentration of resources no longer leads to an improvement in economic conditions; The tension is growing, there is an attempt to military or economic expansion, and in the case of failure, fragmentation and period of the turmoil occur.

Does the world face today before the threat of a new economic disaster? It is difficult to answer this question while in the thick of events. I think that one of the key indicators can be considered the level of employment. The more unemployment grows - the more people do not find their niches in this life, this causes public tension. Unemployment is now growing in almost all countries, and the problem is already so acute that economists offer to solve it with the help of unconditional basic income. Experiments are going on throughout the rich Europe, in 2017, Finland began to pay unemployed for 560 euros without any conditions. In the time of ancient Rome, there was also a norm that guarantees free food and clothes to all free citizens, but this did not protect the empire from decay. Manuals and unconditional income do not solve the cause of public tension - these are just a means of softening symptoms.

You can trace two trends: enlargement and concentration of super resources in political and corporate circles, on the one hand, and the growing problem with the search for their niche both for individual citizens and for entire states and peoples on the other. This voltage will accumulate until a new technological breakthrough occurs, thanks to which new capabilities of both consumption and the use of human resources will open. This will be followed by the next round of enlargement and globalization. Perhaps we will be able to see a world in which the global government will operate and freedom of migration will exist. If a new technological leap does not occur, then a new series of local conflicts awaits us until some new ideology can generalize and simplify these contradictions to simple categories-these are enemies, and these are friends; Destroy enemies, save friends. Where this fault line will pass - according to the class, by national, according to the racial, by professional, in religious - it is not so important, in any case, this will lead to a global social disaster.

Arya Gotsdanker is an organizational psychologist, expert on the management of changes and the psychology of the masses

Opinions expressed under the section may not reflect the point of view of the editorial office