Labor market without workers

"There are forecasts that 35% of jobs will disappear in Britain and in the States by 2025; the same thing will happen to Russia"

The Russian labor market changes orientation. This became obvious after such large employers as Sberbank and Vimpelcom reduced the number of offices and transferred a significant part of the employees to remote work. True, in Beiline such a strategy was explained not only by the desire to save on rent, but also by the desire to win competition for talents. According to Vice President Natalia Albrecht, young people from the Z generation (those born after 1995), who have to hire the company in 2-3 years, will not want to sit in the office from 9.00 to 18.00.

In fact, employers are cunning - already in 2009 the average age of remotely people (freelancers) was 27 years old, 80% had higher or unfinished higher education. That is, young people naturally occupied a niche inaccessible to senior colleagues due to technological and psychological restrictions.

Moreover, freelancers, for example, provide themselves with employment, and the best result is precisely communicating, communication on social networks. The dynamics of success is such that they begin to offer their services on special resources, send letters with offers and advertising, but, having gained a decent client base and earned confidence, they are content with "sundress radio" in social networks. Another thing is that the "adult" part of colleagues who are not used to selling themselves as a professional, such a practice can cause irritation.

In any case, the global turn towards remote work really opens access to work for young specialists, but at the same time delete from the list of working pensioners who are familiar to the office routine and supervision of the authorities. Interestingly, the study conducted by Sberbank showed that modern young people do not have a pet to the elders, and adults themselves admit that children surpass them in many respects.

It is clear that the management of such people will require other bossy skills. The case complicates another circumstance - the words "career" and "prestigious work" in the list of desired achievements among young people practically do not sound. And even worse - in the opinion of the majority interviewed, success is measured by "not wealth and status, but by a variety of life and pleasure." Such hedonism is quite difficult to enter in a working week. Therefore, it is still unknown whether the labor market is changing due to technology, or young specialists are presented by young specialists who simply do not have competitors in the previous generation.

One thing is clear-a subordinate-primary attorney is reformatted, the spirit of collectivism fades, personal responsibility increases and such an important meter of social well-being disappears as the duration of the working week. Of course, for a post -industrial society, this is a logical process, but today we are talking not only about new forms of operation, but also to self -interaction. However, such a problem will arise only among demanded specialists working in the field of modern technologies, the rest are doomed to unemployment.

Freelance as a sign of youth

Denis Strebkov , sociologist, NIU HSE:

- On the Russian market, most freelancers working remotely are young people. First of all, because there was a change in the state system, and the people who were born after the collapse of the USSR are less afraid of the new and they have entrepreneurial potential. Many who are now over 30, over 40 years, grew up in an era, when entrepreneurial activity was considered from a negative point of view. And they worked in the office all their lives, it is difficult for them to put themselves in another situation. In addition, young people have better owning computer technology, but now it is very in demand.

In the West, freelancers are mainly people with experience, and in Russia youth, because they are more oriented towards information technology and they have no fear of independent employment.

Young people have the opportunity to stay as long as possible by children

In addition, young people in Russia seek to have fun, rest, less to work. In the 90s, there was, however, the period when the parents received little, and the children wanted to live well, and then they sought to enter the labor market earlier. Now, since the older generation is financially coping, young people have the opportunity to stay as long as possible for children.

In fact, if we are talking about young people, rebellion is characteristic of her at all times. Children have always tried to act differently than parents. But gradually this revolutionaryness subsides. At 17-19, many dream of their own business. And when the university is graduated, 5-6 years pass, and only 5% become entrepreneurs. After 30, I want something reliable, stable, a family appears, people think whether to take a mortgage, etc. That is, opposite trends arise. And some of the people who work in the office are striving for freelance, and those who used to work as a freelancer do not mind working for a good salary in the office.

For the most part, freelancers are very responsible people who are forced or voluntarily choosing this form of activity, understanding all the risks that she brings to them. It only seems that freelancer is free to choose when to go to rest when to work. In fact, it is limited by a mass of factors. And it turns out that many of them work much more than people in offices, and overstrain. And this creates problems for both health and their social interaction with other people.

Neurotic phenomenon "workaholism"

Sofya Nartova-Bochaver , psychologist:

- Generally speaking, in ancient times the functions of the office and houses often united. There were small craft production, private practice. However, life developed, culture differentiated, and offices arose. In the traditional European sense, the house is intended for rest, leisure, and family, and the office is for labor, ambitions, professional activities.

People who have problems with self -control prefer an office

Why is it more comfortable for people to work at home? Psychologically, many are sensitive to the mode of life, but offices, corporations do not take this into account. Almost no one can provide an alternation mode, for example, rest, smoke breaks, coffee houses and, in general, the beginning of the working day and its completion, which adequately meet the individual psychological characteristics of a person. Extremely rare! Therefore, people try to arrange it for themselves at home, where you can stop in time and move on to other activities. On the one hand, this helps to respond in a timely manner to the signs of emotional, professional exhaustion and burnout, but there are certain risks.

Because if the working day is not limited by the regulations, the rules of the office, if the cleaning lady does not drive you out in order to wash the floors, then there is a temptation to extend your working day, for example, at night. And such a neurotic phenomenon as workaholism begins to develop. Therefore, people who have problems with self -control, with self -discipline, as a rule, run from this method of life management, prefer the office. There is a type of personality who is aware of the risks that the work will absorb all his life if he does not have an external controlling instance. For such people, the transition to home mode, of course, is not fatal, but destructive.

About geography, salaries and shocks

Alexey Zakharov , President of the Superjob Search Service and employees:

- More and more companies are trying to transfer some people to remote work, for completely different reasons- from optimizing business processes to banal savings on office space. The popularity of this form is growing because new technologies allow us to communicate very effectively. And if the work is connected, one way or another, with communication, it doesn’t matter - in the neighboring office you are sitting in a neighboring city or in a neighboring country.

Therefore, geography is expanding, and salaries are aligned. That is, in one place they decrease, and in another increase. For example, those low salaries for Moscow that we pay to our deleted employees, say, in Voronezh, are super -high for Voronezh. But for those who would go to this work in Moscow, they have decreased. For those who come to this work from the regions, salaries are very high.

In one place, salaries are reduced, and in another increase

In Moscow, no one wants to work in the office, because on average people spend 2-2.5 hours a day on the road, and some and 4 hours. The usual movement of work-house-work-and half a life passes in the subway. Well, if a person reads there, but if not? This is a time thrown out, divorced from the family. Therefore, if a person has the opportunity to convert his work into a remote mode, many are happy to do this.

True, there are a lot of managerial nuances. It seems that the technologies are already allowed, and the professions are ready, but few people who are able to organize the remote work of the teams and control over individual specialists. For 17 years we studied this and continue to study. We have a special software for these tasks that controls the non-consumption of people in workplaces, a group interaction system, etc., etc. The vast majority of remote workers work according to some regulations, scripts, and this is easily algorithmized and robotic today. For example, in our company there are about 80 moderators that check the information. We set the task - during the year, reduce the amount by half. It is simply that a sufficient array of data has already been accumulated over many years of work, which allows you to transfer all this on the network, to bots. And all this will do robots.

As for the team spirit, it can be developed using information technology and at remote work. Now many people prefer to come to the office in order to chat with each other in the chicken, somewhere to drink a seagull, coffee. But virtual reality technologies are developing very quickly.

This is not to say that in Russia they are not ready for such a turn of events. It’s just that small companies have no needs yet, there is a sufficient level of education for managers, an understanding of how all this can be done. Yes, it is obvious that in office areas you can strongly save, but before we start saving, you will have to invest decent money in management and logistics, in information technology. Because it’s easy to say - work at home. It is necessary that the house be equipped with a workplace, so that it satisfies certain standards in order to contact somewhere in the general network. If there is a commercial secret, security issues arise, etc., etc.

2 million people will lose their work in the transport industry, without a chance to find it

In fact, huge perturbations in the labor market in the coming decades are waiting for us in connection with the development of technology. For example, almost all drivers will lose their jobs in the next 10 years. In the transport industry, about 2 million people will lose their work only in Russia without the slightest chance to find it. Because the transport will switch to the bottom. This is an exclusively legal regulations, since all technologies already exist. And if we lag behind the main world, we simply have nothing to drive on, because we do not produce cars.

The insurance industry will completely change. A huge number of insurance companies that insure cars will disappear. Media and advertising will change, because the car industry is one of the main advertisers. All vehicles in Russia will belong to 3-4 companies, or even two.

There are forecasts, say, American, that 35% of jobs will disappear in Britain and in the States by 2025. In Russia, apparently, there will be about the same. Already now the largest companies, such as Rusal, Norilsk Nickel, are building mines, factories without people. The vast majority of people who work in the mining, in the manufacturing industry will lose their jobs, without the slightest chance to find it.

We are waiting for very severe shocks in the labor market. And not only Russia, but the whole world. Trump’s policy is a return of production and everything back to the States, this is an attempt to delay it a little, because no one knows what to do with it. There are different theories, but understandable - how to get out of this and what to occupy people - no. There are experiments with the basic income, but so far these are only experiments.

We predict that 2017 is the last year when the Russian labor market will grow in pieces, that is, the number of jobs will be added. And then every year the number of available jobs will decrease, contract and decrease.