"We have already crossed the line"

A week later, on the night of June 11, the decision of the European Union on visa -free trips to the EU countries of Ukrainian citizens with biometric passports comes into force. Against this background, in Kyiv, statements about the need to introduce visas for Russian citizens who are going to enter Ukrainian territory sounds louder. Will the Ukrainian authorities decide when it can happen and will Moscow mirror response be in this case? What can be the consequences of introducing a visa regime between Ukraine and Russia?

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For three years after the annexation of Crimea and the beginning of a military conflict in the Donbass, politicians in the Ukrainian capital have repeatedly demanded to introduce a visa regime with Russia. Recently, this topic has again become one of the central. Experts believe that, despite the strengthening of the confrontation of Kyiv and Moscow, Ukraine is now unlikely to introduce Ukraine. The reason is the lack of the required number of votes in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. However, the final decision on this issue, obviously, will depend not only on how convincing the arguments of its initiators will be, but from the political will of the country's leadership.

The agreement between Ukraine and Russia on visa -free trips from 1997 poses a direct threat of national security of Ukraine

The draft Decree No. 4030 on the termination of the agreement between the governments of the two countries on visa -free trips of citizens of Ukraine and Russia is registered in the Verkhovna Rada back in early 2016 under the authorship of the current speaker of the parliament, a representative of the Popular Front Andrei Parubia. However, due to the lack of the necessary support, he was still not carried out for voting.

In May of this year, this document gained a new breath - the Popular Front faction at its meeting decided that in the nearest plenary weeks, deputies should decide on visas for Russians. The explanatory note to the prepared project of the resolution emphasizes that "the action of the agreement between Ukraine and Russia on visa -free trips from 1997 poses a direct threat to the national security of Ukraine and must be discontinued."

Speaking in the Rada, the leader of the Radical Party Oleg Lyashko said that "we can only have open borders with peaceful states, and with the country that started the war, Ukraine should not maintain any diplomatic relations at all."

If last year the question of visas for Russians, deputies and officials raised after the arrest of Ukrainian journalist Roman Sushchenko , now many call such an initiative a logical continuation of the visa -free regime with Europe and new sanctions against Russia.

According to the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Alexander Turchinov, the decision on the visa regime with Russia “not only was shaken, but also overripe,” and this must be done as quickly as possible, because “from June 11 we will have an open entry into the EU, and in the east of the country we should build a border that will protect Western civilization from Russian aggression.”

Alexandra Turchinov was supported by the chairman of the Security Service of Ukraine Vasily Gritsak, who, however, proposed to allow only Russians who have biometric passports to let go into the country without visas.

Citizens of the Russian Federation are calling for the tightening of the border crossing the border mainly by representatives of the same political force, the political scientist Kostya Bondarenko states:

-Today, one large parliamentary faction (this is the fraction of the "Popular Front" of ex-Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk) insists on the need for a visa regime. But at the same time, she uses not so much by argumentation as with emotional statements that Russia is an enemy, aggressor and it is necessary to terminate any relationship with it up to the visa regime. Although now we have serious restrictions on communicating with Russia: only single points of crossing on the border work, and any Russian crossing the Ukrainian border is faced with more serious difficulties than even those that gives a visa regime.

The flow of Russians who want to visit our country has recently decreased markedly. Most of the Ukrainians who go to Russia are mainly those who go there to work. And, oddly enough, but most of them are from Western Ukraine, where there is a very high level of unemployment, and these people are mostly hostile to Russia in politically, but, surprisingly, they go there to earn money. If they block the opportunity to travel to Russia, then they will deploy their aggression towards the Ukrainian authorities, which cannot provide them with jobs. And the upcoming opening of the borders of European countries to these Ukrainians will not allow compensating for the loss of work in Russia, since the visa -free regime with the EU does not give the right to employment. Therefore, in the end, we can talk about the next adventure and a meaningless sentence, which in recent years have been many, starting from the construction of the notorious wall on the border with Russia and ending with the abolition between the two countries of the air traffic, concludes Bondarenko Bones.

In 2016, about four million Ukrainians crossed the border with Russia, and at least half of them came to a neighboring country to work.

The director of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation Irina Bekeshkina believes that Kiev is unlikely to decide to introduce visas for Russian citizens, since this can ultimately lead to negative electoral consequences for Ukrainian authorities and can become one of the additional reasons for the split of society:

Perhaps you need to look more closely at those who enter Ukraine. Where are they going? To whom and why?

- Yes, this will be an additional reason for the split. Firstly, I think that so far it is simply unrealistic, since such a step can negatively affect the results of future elections. Voices can not only be missed by those of the few politicians who maintain close ties with Russia, but also anti -Russian, because many in Russia have relatives, acquaintances, and it is obvious that in this case Moscow will act mirror, that is, will introduce a visa regime with Ukraine. And if, according to the calculations of our authorities, after the abolition of visa-free trips, at least 17 Ukrainian consulates in Russia are required, then Russia can leave us only one or two of its diplomatic missions throughout the country. And then the receipt of visas by Ukrainians will be a very big problem. Well, and secondly, there are Ukrainian migrant workers in the neighboring state who send the money earned there, which feed the Ukrainian budget.

Based on all this, I doubt that our parliament will support the visa regime. I agree that, perhaps, you need to look more closely at those who enter Ukraine. Where are they going? To whom and why? Do they have a reservation in a hotel if they go travel, and not visit relatives? Ukrainians who cross the border with EU countries will soon be answered to such questions. Such a more strict regime, without visas, can and should be made to Ukraine and Russia, ”Irina Bekeshkina is convinced.

The country's foreign ministry emphasizes that they are ready at any time to fulfill a political decision on a visa regime with Russia, but they are calling for a balanced and balanced to approach this issue. “It must be borne in mind that we have,” says the speaker of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, Maryana Betz , “is the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea, and if Russia leads the same regime, then we will enter our territory according to visas?”

And according to the leader of the Majlis of the Crimean Tatar people, Refat Chubarov , it is possible to strengthen the safety of Ukraine without introducing visas for Russians, since the Kremlin’s reaction to such a step can be extremely rigid. “They will close the exit for their own (although these are not interested in me), but for the Crimea. We will get rid of any ways to communicate with the Ukrainians who live there now. We should not forget that we remain vulnerable in terms of the occupied territories are millions of our citizens,” Chubarov reminded.

Two years ago, Ukraine introduced the entrance to the country for the Russians for Russians, but the document on the breakdown of a visa -free trips between the two countries since then in the Verkhovna Rada did not dare to submit to the vote. One of the reasons for this was called financial, since the introduction of visas will require money for new consulates in the Russian Federation and an increase in the staff of Ukrainian diplomats. Now Ukrainian representative offices work only in five Russian cities: in Moscow, Rostov-on-Don, St. Petersburg, in Yekaterinburg and Novosibirsk. However, the issuance of visas by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine could organize not only in consulates, but also on the border, and this option, notes the political expert Taras , would be less expensive:

- Financial expenses can be reduced if the so -called "Egyptian version" will act, that is, when visas are directly issued at the border. The border guards check information about a particular person according to their bases, make a minimum check and a visa only by decision of the migration officer who makes the final decision: to let the person into the country, that is, a legitimate lever appears to limit the access of unwanted or suspicious citizens to Ukraine. But at the same time, this option does not require any additional opening of consulates.

If Russia in response introduces a more stringent visa regime, that is, Russian visas will not be given directly on the border, but in consulates, then Russia in this case will lose politically, because those people whose emotions will try to play (and this is a huge number of Ukrainian migrant workers in Russia), they will be outraged by the actions of Russia, and not Ukraine, as they would like in Moscow. But now it is premature to talk about any variant of the visa regime with Russia, since the Popular Front initiative creates a certain confrontation with their main partner - the Petro Poroshenko Bloc. For them, this is a kind of stimulus, and so far the President of Ukraine does not make a political decision on this occasion, it is obvious that the largest parliamentary faction "BPP" will not vote for the decree on the introduction of a visa regime with Russia, and without its support this initiative is doomed to failure, - Taras was sure of Taras.

The visa regime will not affect the penetration of Russian agents into the country and, moreover, Russian mercenaries

The official position regarding the proposal of the Popular Front in the presidential faction has not yet been accepted. The deputy from BPP Vladimir Aryev claims that most of his colleagues advocate the introduction of a visa regime with Russia, and when discussing this topic, only the problems of Crimea, which was raised by Refat Chubarov, concerned. At the same time, according to another parliamentarian from the “Petro Poroshenko bloc, Alexei Goncharenko , part of the faction believes that the visa regime will not affect the penetration of Russian agents and, especially, Russian mercenaries, since Ukraine still does not control part of its eastern border.

“If we consider this measure as an increase in our safety, it is quite obvious that Russia can easily circumvent it, but Moscow’s mirror response will become a problem for millions of Ukrainians. This is a fact. There is an opportunity to cut off our citizens in the Crimea. In the idea of a visa regime with the Russian Federation, there are many minuses, and the pluses are not quite obvious,” says Alexei Goncharenko.

What is the specific threat to the national security of Ukraine, no one has clearly explained to us.

Apparently, the presidential team is afraid that the abolition of visa -free trips to Russia will lead to a noticeable fall in the rating of the head of state, and before the relevant draft resolution in the Rada to vote, some associates of Poroshenko would like to not only listen to the arguments of colleagues from the "Popular Front", but also ask them a number of issues. In particular, about whether Ukraine can ensure the work of all those who now freely go to Russia to earn money.

Nevertheless, the main critic of the initiative for visas for Russians is the “Opposition Bloc”, in the ranks of which there are many associates of the cursory ex-president Viktor Yanukovych, who begin to judge in absentia in the Obolonsky district court of the state treason.

“It seems that, raising both this issue and restriction of access to Russian sites and social networks, our politicians find out relations among themselves. The theme of the visa regime has already been raised repeatedly in the Rada, and mainly at the moment when it was necessary to distract the attention of our citizens from certain government failures. And the specific threat to the national security of Ukraine consisted of, so far no one has clearly explained to us,” is indignant. Deputy from the "Opposition Bloc" Yuri Miroshnichenko.

In turn, the law enforcement agencies claim that the reason, in particular, in the activation of Russian special services in Ukraine, who acts as organizers of high -profile murders and abductions. The day before, the security forces managed to prevent the abduction in the Kiev region and the export of the former Russian businessman and State Duma deputy Vladimir Krupchak to Russia, who fled to Ukraine back in 2007 due to the corporate war with the Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska. According to the investigation, $ 17 million were ready to pay for the implementation of this order in the Russian Federation. Law enforcement agencies also believe that if more stringent rules for crossing the border were applying, then a killer would hardly have been in Ukraine, who tried on June 1 to kill a native of Chechnya in Kiev , a member of the fighting in the Donbass Adam Osmayev, accused of Moscow of attempting to Vladimir Putin.

Ukraine will receive a large mine of slowed down. Elements of such a Kremlin plan have already been implemented

As the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov recently stated, “Moscow will proceed from the principle of reciprocity in visa issues with Ukraine,” while emphasizing that the introduction of Kiev visa regime with Russia will hit Ukrainian citizens primarily. However, the director of the Kiev Center for Research of Civil Society Problems Vitaly Kulik doubts that the Russian authorities will mirroring the visa decision of Ukraine:

- Russia may not go to a symmetrical, mirror response and will not introduce visas for Ukrainians who want to come to Russia. On the contrary, Moscow will simplify the procedure for obtaining Russian citizenship, passporting Ukrainians not only in Crimea, in the east of Ukraine, but also Ukrainians-refugees and our labor migrants. At the same time, without demanding that they refuse Ukrainian citizenship. As a result, Ukraine will receive a large mine of slowed down. Elements of such a plan of the Kremlin are already implemented. We are talking about the recognition of Putin documents issued in the so -called "DPR and" LPR ", including their" passport ". And the presence of these" passports "involves obtaining Russian citizenship under a simplified procedure.

The next step in this direction may be a simplification of the citizenship procedure for Ukrainians working in Russia. And here we can talk not so much about the repetition of the South Ossetian scenario, when before the war with Georgia, Russia distributed its passports there, then to invade South Ossetia under the pretext of protecting its citizens, and about creating a whole cluster of people who will have a double identity. On the one hand - Russians, and on the other, Ukrainians. The presence of two passports of countries that fight among themselves is always the creation of an environment that will have all the signs of the “fifth column” and will provoke certain trends in the state, ”says Vladimir Kulik. In his opinion, the question of a visa regime with Russia should be considered in the context of a complex of necessary measures that will ensure its implementation. Among such measures, the political scientist calls the adoption of the law on the occupied territories, the stop of trade, the breakdown of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

As the Taras was predicts, the decision of Kyiv to tighten the procedure for crossing the state border with Russia can be adopted next year:

We have already crossed the line to which we could not take any decisive action before

-Now this initiative looks more like PR of the Popular Front, but you need to understand that sooner or later the visa regime with our northern neighbor will be introduced. We could not make such a decision earlier, because the situation in Ukraine was too difficult. Against the backdrop of an external threat in the east, there were fears of internal exacerbation due to several million Ukrainian "Zarobitchan", which could very actively support the position of Moscow, including in the west of Ukraine. Сегодня Украина уже имеет довольно мощные спецслужбы, которые очистились от "российских элементов", и армию, способную противостоять агрессору в Донбассе. Мы уже перешли ту грань, до которой ранее не могли предпринимать каких-либо решительных действий. И на сегодняшний день введение визового режима теоретически возможно, но практически вряд ли такое решение будет принято в ближайшее время. Думаю, что визовый режим с Россией начнет действовать не раньше второй половины 2018 года, и на первом этапе, скорей всего, в таком мягком варианте, когда визы будут выдаваться непосредственно на границе, – считает политический эксперт Тарас Черновил.