What are you deigned? Is the Kudrin program to restart the economy realistic

Alexey Kudrin. Photo: Valery Sharifulin / TASS

At the end of May, the chairman of the Council of the Center for Strategic Development (CSR) Alexei Kudrin and the Business Ombudsman, the head of the Stolypinsky club Boris Titov presented Vladimir Putin their strategies for the growth of the economy. No decisions have been made on them yet, and the CSR program has not even been published in full, practically not disclosed the measures that are spelled out in it. To decide what to publish, the president will be, Kudrin said earlier. In the meantime, experts received only the text of the presentation. What can be judged by him, we asked to figure out the economist Sergei Aleksashenko.

An important reservation: I did not read it in its full form. I just could not get it. Everyone they addressed, they said that they did not see the full text. Therefore, my comments relate only to the text of the 32-page presentation. As far as is known, a large number of experts took part in writing the document; Many of them are the best specialists in their field in their field. This is why it is ready to believe that the full text contains a large number of specific developments and suggestions that offer adequate solutions to urgent problems. But in the final presentation they are not there, so do not look for all questions in my text.

The main question: what is the purpose of the program and how realistic it is? I did not find a direct answer to the first part of the question, but the indirect answer sounds familiar: to ensure the growth rate of the Russian economy that will exceed the global. Judging by the presentation, this goal is supposed to be achieved between 2021 and 2023 (depending on how the world economy will grow), that is, in the second half of the next presidential term Vladimir Putin. However, I had doubts about the realism of such a forecast, and I will share them.

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