American Senate against Putin

The bill adopted by the upper house of the US Congress - unless, of course, it is supported by the House of Representatives and signed by the US President - introduces unprecedentedly strict sanctions against the Russian state and its elite

The sanctions will affect, first of all, Russian state banks, the energy sector and the sphere of new technologies, especially in the application to oil and defense industries.

Banks

For state banks, they make cheap western money even less affordable: getting a loan even for 30 days will become impossible - 14 days maximum. So, there will be problems with access to financial resources and Russian businesses. In practice, we came close to the line when the next sanctions step is to black -list Russian state -owned banks, the famous analyst Edward Fishman writes in the analysis for the site of the influential research institute.

Our everything

The second direction of the “strike” is the development of new oil fields in the Arctic, at sea depths and in the production of shale gas and oil, which require modern technology and equipment. Actually, these prohibitions acted earlier, but now the congressmen expect to close the loopholes that allowed Russian companies registered in other jurisdictions to receive the necessary examination. And besides, the introduction of the so -called “secondary sanctions” is supposed: foreign companies that work or expect to work in the USA or with American partners are not recommended to invest in Russian projects that fell under sanctions.

In practice, we came close to the line when the next sanctions step is to bring Russian state -owned banks in black spic.

“Secondary sanctions” and will be called to damage the Nord Stream II project (“North Stream-2”)-a gas pipe, which should go along the bottom of the Baltic Sea and, thus turning off Ukraine from gas transit, directly connect Russia and Germany with a pipe. If the bill becomes a law, then any companies with any jurisdiction investing in North Stream-2 will have to re-recalculate the risks of participating in such a project. And not the fact that a new risk assessment will allow them to stay in the project.

Defense

Finally, as a response to Russian hacker attacks during the latest presidential elections, Congress is going to prohibit companies or individuals to work with any companies or individuals associated-arbitrarily remotely-with enterprises of the Russian military-industrial complex or with structures operating in the field of intelligence and security. This, in turn, implies secondary sanctions, namely, foreign companies that relerate working with Russian security forces and defensemen will be very likely at risk of fines and restrictions on them. It is clear that not only Western entrepreneurs, but also Asian ones, inclusive, will be struck by the American market and/or loans of international banks, and/or contracts with Western businesses. American lawmakers believe that, given that Russia occupies 8% of the weapon market, these sanctions will become very sensitive to generals in the form and in civilian clothes. And not only: taking into account how large the costs of the defense industry are and how seriously the volume of military production has increased in the total share of industrial production, these sanctions can affect the expected growth of GDP in the electoral year.

The price of the issue

The bill went through the upper house of the Congress in a record time - in a week, and it was supported by 98 senators at two “against” - and this is in the ward, which is controlled by ardent opponents of the past President of the United States Barack Obama - Republicans. This forces analysts to believe that in the House of Representatives the bill will have no problems. It is less clear what to expect from the 45th US President Donald Trump. The fact is that the bill specifically states that Trump can cancel sanctions only and only if the congressmen support it in that. Moreover, if the White House still decides to cancel the sanctions, then Congress will have 30 days for discussion, and in the summer-60 days.

The US Secretary of State and the holder of the Russian Order of Rex Tillerson have already stated that American-Russian relations are already at the bottom point, and new sanctions will be even more worsening.

The fact that Moscow did not expect such a step from the White House, where the president supported by the Kremlin was clearly read on the face of President Putin during his “direct line” with the people, which passed exactly the day after the voting in the Senate. Putin is not just annoyed-it seems he does not know how to get out of the situation: new sanctions will become a serious blow, including from friends-businessmen, who, not without reason, believed that “the owner holds God by the beard” and will come up with something. But no. The owner may come up with - at least Clinton, which, most likely, would have initiated new sanctions against Russia, and did not enter the oval office. However, it is obvious that the Kremlin and Putin personally caused a sharp rejection among the powerful Washington establishment, on both sides of the political sky - both among the Republicans, and among the democrats, and among the rich and the middle class. Considering that in 2018, intermediate elections in the United States-all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and a third, that is, 33 seats, in the Senate, will not have to wait for mercy from the Capitol: Americans, humiliated by the fact that some Russians were waiting for, will not have to be exhibited.

Putin is not just annoyed-he does not know how to get out of the situation: new sanctions will become a serious blow, including from friends-businessmen, who, not without reason, believed that “the owner holds God by the beard” and will come up with something. But no

Now the question is how quickly the lower house of Congress will consider and vote for new sanctions and what softening will be able to knock out the American State Department and the Russian government from representatives.