Three -letter campaign

Is it possible to argue that the decision to participate in Vladimir Putin has already been made in the presidential election? What will candidate number one come to voters? And whether it will decide not only with fake opposition - thinking The New Times

There is still no direct answer to one of the two main questions of the 2018 presidential election. Vladimir Putin has never directly stated that he was going to take part in them. This creates tension in catching groups: on the one hand, there is a temptation to play the successor, on the other hand, it is clear that as soon as he declares himself as a candidate number one, the price of such a game will become exorbitantly high for the players. And in general, the intrigue looks very far -fetched: by political scientists, and the people and elites, the fourth term of Putin is perceived as something a predetermined and inevitable. Hence the constant leaks from the administration about how Putin is going to win the next elections. How the campaign will be built, and who will have to portray rivals of the permanent president in the race with a predetermined result.

Revelation from the limousine

It was expected that Putin would give the answer to the question of participation or non -participation in the elections during the “direct line”. Rumor generators from among those who are customary in the media to be called “anonymous sources close to the presidential administration” fueled these expectations. They said that the line traditionally passing in the spring, and was transferred to June that the president had not yet made the main decision ... They hinted at the general fatigue of the national leader, then to health problems ... They predicted that citizens who were allowed to ask the president would almost ask him to stay and he will descend to the requests of subjects.

A protracted conversation of a clearly secured person with people living in inhuman conditions disappointed those who hoped to receive an immediate answer - whether Vladimir Putin Putin Fourth will become, or will hide for four years behind the next (or even the same) senseless Medvedev. Although, if desired, you can still find the answer in the text of the “direct line”, and the answer is even elegant in its own way. Putin was asked why the first persons of the country do not drive in domestic machines. He called the question “not very important” and added - the work is going on, by the end of 2018, the line of domestic machines of the representative class will be created, and it and other “first persons” will transfer to the limousines of Russian production. In other words, there is no question of any pension, next year, after the elections (elections in the spring, in March), Putin still sees himself among the “first persons”. This is at least.

It was also noted that the president was clearly bored to answer the question of the successor, from which it was concluded that he did not think seriously about any other candidates for elections besides his own. But this is completely Krelenology - fortune -telling on intonation and expression on the face of a middle -aged person who was clearly tired of four hours of talking about landfills and barracks.

The court is coming

A fresh leak from RBC - “Source in the Presidential Administration” claims that the first sketches of the Putin presidential campaign scenario are already there, it will be built around three basic concepts: justice, respect, trust. It is difficult not to notice here a kind of “hello”, which the team of the first deputy head of the presidential administration Sergei Kiriyenko passes to his predecessors. Vyacheslav Volodin had a stake in the parliamentary elections (competitiveness, openness, legitimacy). The stake was driven to Russia, on the agenda - the court.

There is no special news here. Around the indicated three concepts, a message of the President was built by the Federal Assembly-2016 (Kiriyenko was answered for the preparation of the document). At the very beginning of his speech, Putin said: “The principles of justice, respect and trust are universal. We firmly defend them - and, as we see, not without the result - in the international arena. But to the same extent, they are obliged to guarantee their implementation within the country, in relation to each person and the whole society, ”and then more than once during the speech called the audience to respect citizens, history and the country.

Vyacheslav Volodin had a stake in the parliamentary elections (competitiveness, openness, legitimacy). Kol was driven to Russia, on the agenda - the court

However, there is a political technological axiom: in Russia, campaigns, which are built only around a certain range of values, have no particular success. We need specifics, “meat”, a list of clear problems that require solution.

And in this regard, the “direct line” showed by many, the “direct line”, is still an important application to the start of the campaign. The president’s conversation with the people came out not at all cheerful. The air was really gloomy, or even tragic stories, which is quite unusual for a show of this type (let's recall the girl from the apatites, residents of “caring out” in Nyagan, victims of fires and floods, which the local officials refused to help).

This is across the propaganda of recent years - sets the image of a suffering, destitute, in need of country's help. And it can be assumed that, slightly distracted from foreign policy successes, the president-supplier will focus on social troubles during the campaign. He will restore respect and justice.

By the way, he has already begun. The victims of floods and the fire of fire were helped during the “direct line”, a little later Putin on the live air of state television channels closed a landfill in Balashikha, which the inhabitants of the Moscow Region complained to him. It would be possible to think about whether the Russians named and so far have not yet called the result of the previous 17 years of his reign, but this, of course, is not the theme of the campaign of Putin-Learn, Putin of the fourth term.

There is a risk in this approach, but the risk is conscious: the feeling that the country is in a very difficult situation and there is only one person capable of protecting the country, should work on the mobilization of the electorate and increase the appearance.

Leader and children

According to NT sources, the president has long been preoccupied with his not particularly popular among youth, and this concern appeared before the opposition’s performances on March 26 and June 12. Putin clearly does not want to become the president of pensioners and those regions that political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin calls electoral sultanates.

It was approved, for example, that the real start of the presidential campaign can be considered a meeting with one of the enterprises of Chelyabinsk in late December last year. Putin then went not just to the workers, but to the workers of the joint venture of the Chelyabinsk pipe factory and Rusnano, to young professionals dealing with the technology of the future. He also promised him respect and justice, scolded the opposition sluggishly, and at the same time said that his real dream was to “successfully end his career and go travel.” But, apparently, the time has not yet arrived for the successful end of the career.

But the time is to activate youth work. On June 24, Vladimir Putin visited Artek, tried pancakes baked by pioneers, talked about the service in intelligence, journalistic ethics and the dangers of alcohol. According to NT, ahead of the president - a tour of other youth camps, the summer will have to be tense.

Slightly distracted from foreign policy successes, the president-executive during the campaign will concentrate on social troubles. Will restore respect and justice

True, here with the themes for the campaign is not very clear. These proposals for young people from the state are the militaristic heat of the Unarmium and other similar associations, the ongoing stream of prohibitions from deputies and senators and dull lectures in schools and universities about the dangers of participation in rallies. The agenda of the opposition turned out to be clearly more attractive for young people.

And Putin is not only the owner of the system, but also its hostage, and even he can’t take it and just stop the work of the propaganda machine repulsing the youth. Still, this work was tuned in for years.

Factor N

But there is another question, the discussion of which the Kremlin avoids how they can. And who, in fact, win? Grigory Yavlinsky and Vladimir Zhirinovsky have already announced participation in the elections, Gennady Zyuganov and Sergey Mironov "do not exclude opportunities." But this set of fictitious politicians, beating boys, even if you dilute it with some frank clowns (we remember the times when Mason Andrei Bogdanov went to the presidential election)-frankly, so-so for the triumph.

A clear opponent is nearby and does not tire of reminding himself. Moreover, it reminds successfully: propaganda can no longer ignore Alexei Navalny. In the "Vesti of the week", exposure plots appear, the heroes of investigations of the Fund for the fight against corruption have not yet been lined up yet to sue all. And all this is currently not in the minus: according to closed Kremlin sociological studies that flowed on the BBC, over the year, Navalny's recognition increased from 43% to 56% (and over five years-exactly eight times: in 2011, only 7% of Russians were known about the existence of the opposition). Propaganda in a closed circle: not to respond to Navalny’s performances, and any reaction eventually turns out to be an advertisement for the opponent.

Real offers for young people from the state are the militaristic heat of the Unarmium and other similar associations, the ongoing stream of prohibitions from deputies and senators and dull lectures in schools and universities about the dangers of participation in rallies

In the spring, only one of the NT experts surveyed (political analyst Valery Solovy) dared to say that Navalny, perhaps, would be allowed to participate in the elections. But the fact that a few months ago looked simply impossible is now unlikely (only unlikely!), And the situation continues to change. On June 23, the CEC suddenly released a press release about the attitude to the “headquarters of Navalny” and whether it could be called a “presidential candidate”. Repeating the inability to participate in the elections about the impossibility for a person with an outstanding criminal record, they also emphasized that the election date has not yet been scheduled, and the registration of candidates has not begun, and there is nothing to talk about yet. In other words, they left the answer to the question that someone asked from above (otherwise why would such a press release appear).

The question of whether to smash the Fakeovs, doomed to defeat the opponents in advance, or take a chance to meet with a real rival, seriously complicating the campaign, depriving it of benevolence, remains suspended. And with the answer to it, the Kremlin, obviously, will pull to the last - to the official purpose of the election date.