Suffering to the ruble - 3

The ruble will fever again, and it is again cheaper in relation to the dollar and the euro. What is happening and how to preserve their savings - The New Times asked the permanent expert of the magazine, a former deputy chairman of the Central Bank, banker Oleg Vyugin

NT: *The ruble fell somehow unexpectedly. What happened again? *

Two main factors. The first - oil failed: for several months since the beginning of the year, the price for a barrel was in the range of $ 50–55. And two weeks ago, oil went below $ 50 per barrel - $ 45 with a small one. This, of course, affects the ruble. True, not as hard as before, but the ruble falls.

The second factor - the American Congress threatened with new sanctions. Including mentioned a possible restriction or even a ban on investing by American funds in Russian federal loan bonds (OFZ).

There is evidence that some investors began to slowly leave OFZ. Federal loan bonds are bought for rubles, for which investors convert dollars into rubles, respectively, when they leave OFZ, they perform a rectification operation: they sell bonds for rubles and convert them into dollars - this also put pressure on the ruble.

Analysts, however, also like to mention that there was a reduction in the differential of bets, that the Russian Central Bank has recently slightly reduced the base rate on rubles, and the US Federal Reserve has not been raised by the US Federal Reserve. But I believe that after all, the first two factors were decisive.

NT: Russia seemed to have agreed with the OPEC to reduce oil supply to the market - this was associated with this that oil kept above $ 50 per barrel. The first agreement expired by June 1, but it seems that it was possible to agree with OPEC again. Then why is oil cheaper?

Yes, we agreed with the cartel. But the market sees that at the same time there is an increase in production in America, where they again reached nine and a half million barrels per day. There is also an increase in production in Libya and in several other non -aligned ( to the cartel. - NT) countries. That is, it turns out that OPEC and Russia are trying to influence the price, while others at this time increase their market share. If there is an increase in oil production by producers by manufacturers further, then the whole point is lost: the OPEC countries give the markets, but do not achieve high prices. All interest was so that the price for the barrel was set in the area of ​​$ 60 - this is discussed in the fall of last year, when negotiations with OPEC were underway. But such a price could not be achieved for reasons mentioned above. And now the markets are evaluating the situation so that the price of oil is unlikely to rise.

The market sees that there is an increase in oil production in America, there is also an increase in production in Libya and several more countries that were not aligned with the cartel. That is, it turns out that OPEC and Russia are trying to influence the price, while others at this time increase their market share

NT: *And even lower the price of oil can drop? *

By the way, this is possible. But still, the price will vary in the interval of $ 45 to $ 55-until OPEC still refused to restrictions (for oil production), a policy of deterrence of supplies, which OPEC and Russia agreed on, adopted until March 2018. But sooner or later the price is staggering.

NT: *Does the demand for oil fall? *

No, the demand for oil does not fall, it is growing a little-mainly due to the Asia-Pacific region. But initially there was an imbalance of supply and demand. And, in fact, the OPEC, when he made a decision to restrict supplies, stated as a reason that he would like to achieve a demand and supply in the market in line, and for this it was necessary to wait as if with production. Demand is growing a little, and now the balance this year should be achieved.

NT: *The budget we have a reversal at the rate of $ 40 per barrel. That is, the current $ 45 per barrel of the Ministry of Finance is quite arranged, right? *

Yes, sure. Therefore, now the budget is planned, that is, there is no high tension.

NT: *In recent months, when the ruble has been strengthened, the economic authorities emphasized that such a ruble is rather bad for the economy. However, why the ruble continued to strengthen - no one really understood. Do you have a hypothesis, what factors influenced the national currency in winter and this spring? *

I think that several factors were the reason for strengthening the ruble. The first, so inconspicuous, it is due to the fact that during this period of a noticeable ruble strengthening of Russian companies there was a minimum of payments for external obligations, that is, such a local minimum. And he will continue. As a result of the outflow of capital, there was practically no capital. And the price of oil in general for the first half of 2017 still increased and was more than the Ministry of Finance planned, and more than analysts expected. And this sharply improved the state of the payment balance, the current account, that is, there was an influx of currency to the country. And even we know that the Ministry of Finance bought this currency. That is, the ruble could strengthen even more if the Ministry of Finance did not buy up the currency. Carry Trade ( a strategy in which the investor takes money at a low percentage, in order to invest in assets that will most likely grow in price. - NT) also played very great importance, since there is a big difference in rubles and dollars. With a stable and even growing price for oil, many hedge funds were engaged in a simple operation: they took dollars, bought rubles on them, then acquired OFZs, received a profitability of about 9%-this also crushed towards strengthening the ruble.

Now there is evidence that imports began to grow quickly enough. Just because the ruble has become stronger, the currency has come, and it is quite possible that in the next half of the year we will not see any strengthening of the ruble - even if the price of oil returns to $ 50 and higher per barrel.

And what officials say - we want the ruble to be weaker or harder - the ruble behaves not in accordance with what they say or want, but in accordance with the situation in the market - in the oil market, first of all. If Carry Trade volumes are inhibited or even contracted, import will grow - and we see that it has risen sharply in the spring - then, in principle, the chances of strengthening the ruble sharply, sharply decreased.

It is possible that in the next half of the year we will not see any strengthening of the ruble - even if the price of oil returns to $ 50 and higher for the barrel. There will be a plus or minus 60 rubles. For $ 1

NT: *and what is the realistic price for $ 1-plus or minus 60 rubles? *

If there are no large positive political changes that can cause an influx of investment in Russia, then yes, in the area of ​​this.

NT: *And the House of Representatives of the US Congress will accept new sanctions proposed by the Senate against the sectors of the Russian economy, and Trump will sign them - what then? *

Then the ruble can go to 62 and 63 rubles. for $ 1.

NT: *So you need to keep dollars? *

In principle, in dollars, of course, in this situation it makes sense to keep a certain part of the portfolio. Another question is that the yield on deposits in dollars is very low. Therefore, people with money, they still hold part in rubles, because there is still good profitability there. And even if the ruble still chews on seven percent, ruble investments will not depreciate. Therefore, I think that part of the portfolio is still holding in rubles.