Translated material
Under one comb
July 24 expires the contract on the delimitation of powers between the Federal Center and Tatarstan. But it is still unclear whether it will be extended. A high -ranking source in the President of Russia, answering the question of the Kommersant newspaper, whether the text of a new agreement is agreed with the Kremlin, said that "there is no new agreement." At the same time, the main opponent of its extension may be the curator of the Kremlin’s domestic political bloc, the ex-field representative of the president in the Volga Federal District (PFO) Sergey Kiriyenko. Political scientists note that there are their reasons for their reasons, and State Duma deputies do not consider the presence of a contract to be something significant. The opinions of experts are in the material "Idel. Reali" .
Ten years ago, on June 27, 2007, the presidents of Russia and Tatarstan Vladimir Putin and Mintimer Shaimiev signed an agreement on the delimitation of powers between the federal center and the region. Its validity expires on July 24. At the same time, there are practically no prerequisites for extending a special contract. First persons prefer not to comment on this topic. According to Kommersant, there may not be a document at all. It is possible that its main enemy is the current curator of the Kremlin’s domestic political bloc, the ex-field chairman of the president in the Volga Federal District Sergey Kiriyenko. Such a version is expressed by political scientist Abbas Gallyamov .
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0:00 0:01:35Some experts suggest that the influence of Sergei Kiriyenko on the Kremlin’s position and further actions are determined by tense relations between him and the current adviser to the President of Tatarstan Mintimer Shaimiev. According to the political scientist, editor of the journal "True" Ruslan Aisin , when Kiriyenko came to Kazan, Shaimiev He defiantly left and did not want to meet him. The political scientist believes that the first deputy administration of the President of Russia intends to completely clean up the entire region, politically weakening the local elites.
- I think that Moscow deliberately “hangs” the situation in order to force Tatarstan to make new concessions. Perhaps this concerns the question of Tatneft. Politically, Tatarstan is already “bent” as soon as possible, therefore, most likely, we are already talking about economic concessions, ”says Ruslan Aisin. - I think the contract will be signed in any case, since Tatarstan can stand in a strong pose. On the nose of the World Cup, presidential election. Moscow clearly does not need excess internal conflict. Tatarstan as a leader of the national republics in this regard can show an example of obstinacy. Everyone who focuses on Tatarstan will clearly support him and arrange a celebration of disobedience.
Everyone who focuses on Tatarstan will clearly support him and arrange a celebration of disobedience
The political scientist added that by the nature of his work Sergey Kirienko - A methodologist, moreover, a native of the team of George Shchedrovitsky, who is considered a totalitarian thinker and a person who played a more important role in the end of the Soviet era than Mikhail Gorbachev.
- Methodologists believe that all problems are solved through phased following. Kiriyenko believes that in stages they are now raining Tatarstan. The problems of the methodologists are that they cannot methodologically decompose fate. And it sometimes develops so that the situation gets out of control. Even for the Shchedrovitsky team, ”Ruslan Aisin is sure.
Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor, Deputy Social and Political Conflictology of KNIT (KHTI) Sergey Sergeyev is sure that they will rather refuse to extend the contract. According to him, in this situation, Kiriyenko intends to "put all the regions on one board", so that they do not stand out among others.
From the 2007 treaty, which was proposed to be the basis of the new, all hints of separatism present in the 1994 agreement were cleaned
- If we talk about the prospects for extending the contract between the federal center and Tatarstan, then rather no than yes. The opportunity, of course, remains, but I do not evaluate it very high. If this question was asked to the imaginary representative of the federal center, he would ask - why? Do you live badly without a contract? Speak bad? And you look at other regions. Compared to them, Tatarstan lives very well. Why do you need a contract? Kadyrov even refused the president’s title, and what are you asking for? Be more modest. If you distract from such a fictional scene, probably the main reason is the reluctance of the federal center to have even such a formal agreement. It should be noted that from the 2007 treaty, which was proposed to put the basis of the new, all hints of separatism present in the 1994 agreement were cleaned. Therefore, here the problem is not so much in content as in the very fact of its existence. At the same time, a similar contract to the federal center does not cost anything, the fact is that some federal leaders want to play a role, in the words of Saltykov-Shchedrin, “nillators”. That is, equalists who intend to cut everyone under one comb, ”says Sergey Sergeyev.
If we distract from the position of the Kremlin and the republic and look at the situation from the side, then the extension of the contract, according to the political scientist, does not carry any danger to the center, but acts as an image resource for the Tatarstan elite. In this capacity, he, of course, is important and is a kind of "distinction."
“The people belong to the contract for the most part, we can assume, rather indifferently, but a more authoritative regional elite can more successfully attract external investments in the republic,” added Sergey Sergeyev. - If there is no contract, all regions will be equally trimmed, albeit ugly, but monotonous. Here we need some more flexible approach. But after 2014, I am afraid, both in the foreign and domestic policy about flexibility have to be forgotten.
The head of the political expert group Konstantin Kalachev believes that the contract will nevertheless be extended - at least for the external preservation of the idea of federalism.
- If federalism remains in the country, there is the need to extend the contract. At least to observe some decency. It will be ridiculous if the contract is not extended, and the position of the president of the republic and the autonomy of the elite will remain.
It will be ridiculous if the contract is not extended, and the position of the President of the Republic and the autonomy of the elite will remain
- But one must also understand that, despite the named federal structure of our country, in fact, a unitary model is being implemented. Under these conditions, you need to be able to defend your interests and not cross the line, beyond which big serious problems begin, ”continues Konstantin Kalachev. - In addition, in favor of the extension of the contract, is the fact that Tatarstan is an electorally significant territory. The number of voting here for Putin is important.
However, the political scientist does not exclude that the new leadership of the Kremlin administration in the current situation can not only work for its own authority, but also recall the old grievances.
Director of the Institute of History named after Marjani of the Academy of Sciences of Tatarstan Rafael Khakimov also thinks about the prospects of the presidential election.
If there are intentions not to renew the contract, to remove the position of president, in Tatarstan, negative moods will definitely rise. Does this need this in such a period?
- I think it makes sense to extend the contract. For Tatarstan, this is, of course, a certain political potential and a special relationship between Kazan and Moscow. For the second side, this is beneficial in terms of supporting Putin’s election campaign. It has already begun in the secret, and Tatarstan always gives a lot of votes, including the choice of other republics largely depends on it. From this point of view, the center does not cost anything to prolong the contract. If there are intentions not to renew the contract, to remove the position of president, in Tatarstan, negative moods will definitely rise. Does this need this in such a period?
The leader of the political platform "European Tatarstan" Arthur Khaziev is in no hurry to occupy a certain position. The reason for this, he calls the love of the authorities to resolve such issues under the scrap of secrecy.
Russia without federalism has no hope for effective, successful and stable development
- I cannot definitely say whether the contract will be extended or not. On the one hand, there are arguments in favor of extension - it is already completely emasculated, which does not have real content today. Therefore, I do not see big problems for the federal center to extend it. On the other hand, it is obvious that there is a force that would like to stop this practice of contractual relations in the federal center. We all know these forces. They advocate the unitary structure of the country and, ultimately, for the elimination of the republics within the Russian Federation. We know that these forces largely determine the country's development trend in recent decades. They can take the upper hand. But this will definitely negatively affect federalism, and therefore on the country as a whole. Russia without federalism has no hope for effective, successful and stable development, ”says Arthur Khaziev.
He admits the extension of the contract, but not in the form that we could observe in 2007. The political scientist hopes for the filling of the new contract "real content."
The State Duma deputy from Tatarstan Fatikh Sibagatullin considers the point to change the economic policy as “real content”.
- What am I, a simple resident of Tatarstan, have from this contract? I am a supporter of the adoption of the contract, but with economic amendments. So that at least 50 percent of the revenue base is left with us. Now they leave 27 percent. But all this must be knocked out from our Moscow leaders, ”the deputy said. - I also approve of the extension of the previous agreement. Even if he does not imply economic changes. But I will not cry from his absence.
Another State Duma deputy from Tatarstan Marat Bariev said that "we will still go to the contract." The People’s Chosenian made such a statement at a press conference, responding in the Tatar language.
- We think. We are worried about this ... There is an analysis ... Work in this direction goes together with the republic ... All the same, we will go to the contract ... And what it will be - it’s too early to speak. A lot of different forces are involved here. First of all, this is, of course, the republic itself. At the same time, there are scientists, and politicians, and others ... It seems to me that such an agreement creates a lot of opportunities, ”the deputy said.