Mosul is ours

The Iraq army proclaimed the victory over the Islamists in Mosul, and the leader of the Islamic State terrorist group Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is probably killed, although this has not been confirmed . However, the assault on Mosul led to huge victims among the civilians and a monstrous humanitarian catastrophe. At the same time, the Islamic State group (prohibited in Russia and other states) retains combat and, most importantly, ideological potential. Her militants and supporters in the Middle East and all over the world are ready to move on to the partisan war and the implementation of terrorist attacks in the territories that are considered part of their self -proclaimed "caliphate" - from Portugal to the Philippines .

The Iraqi television channel Al-Sumaria and the Syrian human rights organization Syrian Observator for Human Rights, with reference to sources among the terrorists themselves, said the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. However, the Pentagon said that this information so far requires verification.

On July 9, the Prime Minister of Iraq Haidar al-Abadi, dressed in a black field uniform and with the Iraqi state flag in his hand, officially announced the victory in Mosul over the Islamic State. He noted the largest defeat of this group, three years ago proclaiming himself a "caliphate." At the same time, the reporters watched the heavy battles still ongoing in the city.

Mosul was taken without a fight by the jihadists in June 2014, along with the most part of the entire north-west Iraq. Soon, the leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, performed in the local medieval cathedral mosque al-Nuri , announcing the creation of the "caliphate" in the territories under the control of his militants in Iraq and Syria.

In separate quarters of Mosul, fights are still going on. July 10, 2017

The Barvara, led by al-Baghdadi, as in other cities they captured , began to blow up local historical buildings and museums. In 2015, the famous Mosul Museum was completely destroyed, the second largest in the country before the war, along with a collection of invaluable exhibits, which have been preserved for millennia from the era of ancient Assyria and Mesopotamia. In the end of June 21 of this year, for unknown reasons, the bandits were also destroyed by the Al-Nuri mosque, the same one with which al-Baghdadi proclaimed his "caliphate", although the Islamists claim that it was specially bombed by American aircraft.

The battle for the liberation of Mosul began in October 2016 and was extremely bloody . The Iraq army, together with the Kurdish formations of Peshmerga , armed detachments of the local Shiite militia and other allies, about 100 thousand fighters, with the support of the air from the head of the international coalition, the quarter in the quarter won the city from the jihadists. The militants of the “Islamic state”, mainly foreign mercenaries - groups, entrenched in the old part of Mosul, used snipers, mines -traps, underground passages and trenches dug between houses in small alleys, which were covered with carpets from above, at the level of the second floor to complicate the operation of the aviation of their opponents.

On July 11, the international human rights organization Amnesty International distributed a report that states that the Iraq army and its supporting its formation in recent months conducted a number of tactical offensive operations in Mosul, which led to the mass death of local residents who were not related to militants. According to Lynna Maaluf, director of the Middle Eastern Department of Amnesty International, "the scale and seriousness of losses among the civilian population during the operation of the mosul’s liberation should be immediately recognized at the highest level in Iraq and other countries that are part of the US -headed coalition." However, human rights activists emphasize that the jihadists in Mosul committed much more war crimes, primarily because they deliberately subjected civilians of mortal danger, for example, using them as a "live shield".

A soldier of police special forces Iraq kisses a girl saved in Mosul. July 10, 2017

Under the control of the Islamic State group, significant territories of Iraq are still remaining, the liberation of which is expected to begin in the near future, although fierce disputes about further actions have already begun between Iraqi government forces and the formations of Iraqi Kurds. Jihadists still control the North-Western province of Anbar and the Northern Province of Kirkuk , who are mostly, Kurds and Yezida, as well as part of the province of Nainava , whose capital is Mosul, live.

No one knows how and at what means to restore destroyed areas and cities and how to help at least 1 million refugees, completely deprived of food, housing and medicines. Thousands of hidden Islamist militants who have hidden from terrorists also remain, who are ready, like tens of thousands of their supporters around the world, to continue their war “in the name of Allah,” says the expert of the region, Ukrainian military journalist Yuri Matsarsky , who personally observed the assault on Mosul and now gathered on a new trip to North Iraq:

- In Northern Iraq, now a monstrous situation that is difficult to describe in words. Mosul - hundreds of hectares of continuous ruins. Destroyed everything that is possible. Often, by the way, this is not a consequence of hostilities - a number of villages and suburbs of Mosul were specially blown up by the retreating forces of the Islamic State. This is their tactics of "scorched land" - to blow up everything that is possible. Then, explosives are also laid in these ruins in order to inflict maximum damage to those who come after them, who will try to start these ruins and build something again on them. The incredible number of arable land is also mined. A lot of explosives went to the jihadists after the seizure of weapons warehouses, which Saddam Hussein also placed in the north of Iraq. Among them, by the way, a huge number of anti-personnel mines, produced in the early 80s in Italy and other European countries, which no one really remembers how to mine.

One of the quarters of the center of Mosul. July 9, 2017

-The north of Iraq is a very colorful ethno-religious carpet. At least it was so 15–20 years ago. But in the last two or three years, the horrors of the war crossed all conceivable limits, although it seems that these limits were repeatedly crossed there before. What is happening with the Yezids now, with kakai and other groups?

- The Yezidis found themselves in the most monstrous position, a real genocide is carried out against them. This has not been, perhaps, since the Second World War. A millions of people, an ethno-confessional minority , is recognized as the "enemies of Islam" by the militants of the Islamic state. " Men are destroyed, women fall into sexual slavery. The number of killed Yezids has not yet been calculated, but it is clear that we are talking about tens of thousands. By the way, they provide desperate resistance, there are special armed Yezid formations, including female! Part of the Yezid regions, which used to be places of compact residence of the Yezids, have already been liberated, but people have nothing to do there - everything that is possible has been destroyed, there is no infrastructure, there are no houses that could be returned to. And people, often the very women who either escaped sexual slavery, were bought out and were left without men who were killed, live in refugee camps, because they have nowhere to return. Now Yezid organizations around the world are actively raising money to restore the Sinjar region, the area of their historical compact residence.

Men are destroyed, women fall into sexual slavery

A similar story with Kakai. This is about 100 thousand people , an ultrashi, religious group, which was also declared enemies of the Islamic State group. But they lived a little further from the direction of the Jihadists in 2014, were able to draw conclusions from what is happening with the Yezids, and fled. They left their villages, which are almost all destroyed, where nothing remained, their temples were destroyed. Now they have returned, but to the ruins-and are now trying to somehow rebuild.

There is also a religious minority of Shabak , also Shiite, but with great borrowings in their faith from Christianity, from pagan pre -Islamic beliefs of the region, from Zoroastrianism. So most of these shabak lived just in Mosul. And all of them, at least the vast majority, were under the rule of the Islamic State. So far I have not found any information on them how they survived the occupation. Or maybe they did not survive! I really hope to get there in the next month and still deal with what happened to this people.

Two women saved from slavery from jihadist militants. Mosul, July 10

- What territories, forces and funds now remain with the Islamic State group in Iraq and in Syria now? And who else agrees to fight for them? I do not mean around the world to arrange terrorist attacks, namely with an automatic machine in my hands, in trenches to fight in Iraq and in Syria.

- In very significant territories, the power of jihadists remain. I would not bury the Islamic State now. The most diverse data lead, and the most optimistic sources argue that there are 15-16 thousand people left there, and the most pessimistic say that about 100 thousand. I myself believe that existing militants who are able to hold weapons in their hands and skillfully use it, about 40 thousand, active fighters. Keep in mind that exactly the same forces, perhaps, in the amount of 50–55 thousand fighters, they previously occupied the territory incredible in size, which in Syria, in Iraq. Now, of course, they retreated, Mosul was released and all his environs, Rakka will come. But just imagine that they kept under control the size of the size, probably with the UK! Forces are less than 100 thousand fighters, at the peak.

It is clear that at first universal fear worked for them

It is clear that at first universal fear worked for them. The same Mosul in 2014 defended the Iraqi group of 10 times more than the advancing forces of the Islamic State, and Mosul surrendered without a fight! Plus, losing territories, their strongholds in the Middle East, Syria and Iraq, they expand their "geography" in other regions of the world. The Islamic State group already feels very well in Somalia and Libya, which, as unified states, has not existed for a long time. According to very recent events in the south of the Philippines, it can already afford to afford the demonstrative captures of cities in Southeast Asia. For some reason, this is ignored by many media, but there is a considerable group of ISIS in Egypt, in the north of Sinai, acting literally on the border with Israel and the gas sector, so far small, but gradually growing. These militants are responsible, for example, for the explosion of a Russian passenger aircraft with tourists. And none of them is going to give up yet - neither Syrian, nor Iraqi, nor Libyan radicals, nor those who are in Somalia, Nigeria or the South of the Philippines, nor even those who are in Egypt.

Iraqi troops in the center of Mosul. July 9, 2017

- Now an extremely dangerous situation is taking shape in the north of Afghanistan , where so many detachments of extremists, the Taliban even go over to the side of ISIS. Have you recently looked at the statements of the leaders of the Islamic State group? Do they have some kind of coordinated action plan? Or is it more ideology, not a grouping?

- This very ideology is their plan of action. Construction of a caliphate through a "sacred war", jihad. They have one plan - to attract as many people to their side as possible. They do not recognize any democratic institutions, they completely do not care about any negotiations with anyone, they do not need recognition of themselves, say, as a separate state, from the UN or anyone. They give very simple answers to the most difficult questions. They allegedly build how they serve it in their own propaganda (and many people believe it), a fair state based on the laws of Islam, in which everything is really simple. You steal - they cut off your hand, steal a second time - cut off your head. You live honestly - they help you. The widows and orphans are placed in a pension. This is their plan, which they gradually fulfill.

They feel great in the underground, they left the underground, and they will return underground at any moment

Now they, as they are perceived by themselves, judging by what they themselves write, there is a certain tactical retreat, regrouping. But even if now, or a year later, after five years, all these 50 or 40 thousand jihadists fighting in Syria and Iraq are eliminated from the territories that they occupy, if the authorities of those countries in the territories of which are now a war, they will establish formal or actual control there, this does not mean that the Islamic State will lose. This does not mean that the "Islamic state" will disappear! They feel great in the underground, they left the underground, and they will return to the underground at any moment. They will get stronger, gain new supporters and show themselves somewhere else. Where it can happen - I do not know, for the simple reason that they have two tasks. The task of the minimum is to return all those lands that were part of the caliphates of the former centuries to the power of his caliphate. And this is the whole Middle East, all of Türkiye, Iran, Central Asia, Balkans, North Africa, Spain and Portugal, of course Crimea, the Republic of the Russian Volga region. And the maximum task is to conquer the whole world. And where then it will be torn - you can only assume.

Fights for Mosul. Spring 2017

- Let's get back to Mosul. It is believed that three years ago the Iraqi army left him, because most of the local population, in fact, shared the views of ISIS leaders. Because there are many Sunnis, the former military armies of the late Saddam Hussein, who over the past 10-15 years embittered at the Saddam Shiites and became radical jihadists. Do they not get anywhere either?

- Not quite so, most of those who were waiting for the arrival of the militants of the Islamic State, themselves did not become radical jihadists. I would compare this situation with the advent of the Russian Federation to the occupied parts of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine. After all, a significant part of those who actively shouted there: "Putin, enter the troops!" And he waving a tricolor, for the most part then did not go to fight for the "Russian world", for some forever drunk Cossack Babay, insane Zakharchenko and others. They just, in general, somehow adapted. Maybe one of them already regrets that he wanted Putin to introduce troops, or maybe one of them regrets that he had not left in due time or did not take the weapon in his hands and did not defend his land from pro-Russian bandits and occupiers.

A significant part of those who actively shouted in the Donbass: “Putin, bring the troops!”, For the most part, then did not go to fight for the “Russian world”. The same story - with Mosul

The same story is with Mosul, with Rakka, with all the territories in which ISIS is now hosting. With one still plus, if you can put it so sad, in favor of the Islamic State! Because these militants who came there to build a caliphate have a certain idea of the caliphate as an ideal structure of the world, and which is separated by many, especially poor populations. But Russia, when I came to Ukraine, promised pensions and, in general, nothing more. Those who shouted “Putin, bring the troops!” Probably, they thought that they would begin to scatter large pensions from the tanks, but they were mistaken. Those who were waiting for a caliphate somewhere in Mosul were also mistaken-although I note that the jihadists really paid considerable pensions.

In September, a referendum on the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan should be held

Moreover, I talked with the inhabitants, those who are older, in the Sunni Arab villages, who were already liberated near Mosul - and some of them are looking into the future with pessimism. In September, a referendum should be held on the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan , and although it is already clear that no one recognizes the results, but nevertheless, for the local Arab population, this is not a good one, as it seems to them, “good bells”. And now some of them really recall the times when ISIS was there, when they paid pensions, distributed the selected ones (here again, an analogy with Donbass!) Other lands, cars, houses and the like. But the army came, put the order, and the loot has to be returned.

-Since we have mentioned Russia, I will say that in the official Russian media in the last couple of days the point of view is heard: no victory in Iraq and the liberation of Mosul would be possible without the actions of the aerospace forces of Russia , that is, without the Moscow’s armed intervention in the Middle East, in the war in Syria.

-The war with the Jihadists of the Islamic State is still on two fronts. Of course, they are interconnected, because ISIS can transfer the forces from Iraq to Syria and vice versa, and quite often did it. But Russia operates only in Syria, and whom it bombed there - there are a variety of evidence. Судя по всему, "Исламское государство" не самая главная мишень для России. Я считаю, что это попытка приписать себе чужие заслуги. Не знаю, кто-то этому поверит, кто-то у виска пальцем покрутит, кто-то просто пролистнет эту информацию и не запомнит даже.

Американский спецназ вблизи Мосула. 21 июня 2017 года

Очень активную роль в боях с джихадистами играют западные силы. Более того, перелом именно в битве за Мосул наступил тогда, когда Запад отправил туда наземные подразделения. Это особо не афишируется, потому что группировке "Исламское государство" очень бы хотелось как раз увидеть такую крупную межнациональную наземную операцию против самой себя, для того чтобы всему остальному мусульманскому миру заявить: "Смотрите, вот они пришли, свиноеды и крестоносцы, для того чтобы уничтожить наш халифат!" И тем самым, конечно, они могли бы завоевать большие симпатии в очень многих странах мира. То, что сейчас происходит вокруг Мосула, как, кстати, и вокруг Ракки в Сирии, это достигнуто во многом благодаря наземным силам Запада. Там сражаются, я видел сам, и австралийцы, и немцы, и итальянцы, кого там только нет! Но, конечно, главную роль там играют американцы – и американский спецназ там есть, и американская артиллерия. Кроме того, США же еще и с воздуха бомбят противника. Поэтому такие заявления России, на самом деле, стоит делить если не на 10, то, по крайней мере, на 5.

– В Ираке, под Мосулом в частности, вооруженные силы, противостоящие боевикам ИГИЛ, это, как и в Сирии, кстати, "сочетание несочетаемого". Насколько велика вероятность, что, покончив там с боевиками аль-Багдади, они не начнут воевать друг с другом – и иракская армия, и "Пешмерга", и шиитские повстанцы, и какие-то племенные ополчения, и так далее?

– Судя по всему, пока они умудряются договариваться. Во-первых, они не наступают вперемешку, они идут в наступление всегда параллельно друг другу. То есть никогда рука об руку не воюет суннит с шиитом, араб с курдом. Есть части фронта, и поставлена какая-то боевая задача: эту часть фронта удержать курдским ополчением, а здесь воюет регулярная иракская армия, а чуть в стороне наступает шиитская милиция. Что интересно: когда доходит до освобождения каких-либо населенных пунктов, ну, скажем, если вдруг курды подходят к суннитской арабской деревне, выбив на подходах к ней всех врагов, они сами туда не заходят! Они ждут, пока подойдут единоверцы и соплеменники тех, кто живет в этой деревне, "пускай туда уже арабы входят". И то же самое с шиитами, то же самое с курдами.

Никогда рука об руку не воюет суннит с шиитом, араб с курдом

Что будет потом, не очень понятно. Есть, правда, некое ощущение, что люди, которые воюют с общим врагом и несут действительно огромные потери, не будут потом готовы сразу схватиться друг с другом. Тут, правда, очень много зависит от политиков. Это все-таки Ближний Восток – и их хитрость, их умение или неумение договариваться друг с другом, их умение или неумение сказать правду или скрыть ее, часто и оборачивается кровопролитными войнами и новыми геноцидами, – напоминает Юрий Мацарский .