Low start

The second round of the governor's elections in the Kirov region, it seems, will not be. Just as - by and large - there will be no first.

I do not remember such a sluggish start of the election campaign, like this year, over the past twenty years. Two months before the voting day, the heels of self-nominates signed up for the election to the Gordum, and the parties have just begun to determine their lists and single-mandate. Only five applicants also appeared in the governor’s elections, despite the fact that one of them is purely technical (Nikolai Barsukov, “Communists of Russia”), and another has no chance to pass the municipal filter (Nikolai Dubravin, self -nominee). Sergei Mamaev handed over the documents from the Communist Party: he showed himself well in the elections of the head of Mari El, but completely failed the campaign to the regional legislative assembly, which is why the Communists in the OZS first were left without a full-fledged faction, and took only the third place in their districts in the State Duma elections. At the same time, he will not be able to really fight with Igor Vasiliev - with the money of the Communists, judging by the last campaigns, a certain deficit is observed.

Kirill Cherkasov (put forward LDPR) with money has no problems: as they say, Rakhim Azimov (Uralhim company), with whom Kirill Igorevich has been closely friends has been closely friendly for two decades since the time of work in Komi. It is not surprising that in the elections to the OZS, our “Zhirinovites” unhooked as many as 27%. But openly against Igor Vasiliev, “Uralhim” will not go, and Kirill Cherkasov does not have his administrative resource, and the LDPR network is quite fragmented and small. In addition, Sergey Mamaev will stupidly take part of his protest votes.

Igor Vasiliev also does not have sugar - his recognition is almost zero, with the elites he is in a counterattack, his team did not offer his agenda, the information work in his apparatus completely failed. In addition, he doesn’t really want to be the Kirov governor - however, like all other participants in the race, minus, except that Nikolai Dubravin. Although Igor Vladimirovich, of course, has a couple of strong trump cards in their arms: he is the appointment of Vladimir Putin and has an administrative resource. And therefore - with such, excuse me, rivals - most likely, can (even against his will!) Won already in the first round. At the same time, as a percentage, the alignment, I think, will be as follows: Vasiliev - 61%, Cherkasov - 22%, Mamaev - 12%, Barsukov - 5%. As for the turnout, it must be presumed at the level of 30-33%.

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