Putin's trap for Trump

What is fraught with the attempt by the son of President Trump to get a compromising evidence for Hillary Clinton? Could Trump Jr. be the object of Russian special operation? Why does President Trump condemn Russia and extol his relationship with Putin? Does the Kremlin win as a result of the Russian policy of Donald Trump? What is next in American-Russian relations?

We are discussing these and other issues with the vice president of the American human rights organization Freedom House Arche Paddington , a professor at Houston University by the commentator of the Forbes magazine Paul Gregori , the historian professor of Indiana University Dmitry Shlyapentokh and the head of the American analytical company HWA Gregori Grushko .

On Friday, the history of the investigation of Russian intervention in the American presidential election was marked by another small sensation, which, however, allowed some commentator to draw great conclusions. It became known that in the meeting of the son of Donald Trump with Russian lawyer Natalya Veselnitskaya, who promised to transfer to Trump Jr. Klilary Clinton shortly before the 2016 presidential elections, Rinat Akhmetshin took part, the owner of the lobbyist company in Washington, who, in his own his own words, served in the Russian military military military. counterintelligence. The access to Trump Jr. Russian lawyer with extensive ties in the Kremlin corridors of the authorities and a former employee of special services engaged in lobbying for the interests of ambiguous characters looks, according to the Washington Post newspaper , nothing more than the "Russian intelligence operation".

Donald Trump - Junior

Until now, the critics of Donald Trump have suspected, if not Trump himself, then his environment in attempts to take advantage of Russia's help in the election struggle against Hillary Clinton. The information that appeared at the end of last week at the New York Times that the president’s eldest son met with a Russian lawyer who had promised him a Clinton compromising evidence for the first time confirmed these assumptions. In order to dispel suspicions, the younger Trump hastened to publish a correspondence regarding this meeting, including an email in which he really enthusiastically responds to the offer made by Russian lawyer Natalya Veselnitskaya, to show him some kind of Documents that were at the disposal of the Kremlin. But, as Trump Jr. assured in an interview, delight was caused by the natural desire of the member of the Trump election headquarters to get information unpleasant for the opponent. He quickly realized that Veselnitskaya had nothing but vague assumptions. The meeting ended with nothing and had no continuation.

And on this the president’s son would like to put an end. But he could not do this. The FORCHUN magazine responded to this story with the following note: "The impeachment has increased after the emergence of electronic messages to Trump Jr.."

The matter came to the point that on Thursday, July 13, during a joint press conference with the president of France in Paris, US President Donald Trump was defending his son. He called him a "beautiful young man" who acted as most people would do in his place. That is, they would probably be interested in what is called an “opposition investigation,” says President Trump.

Such an interpretation of this meeting is disputed by the opponents of the president. Some of them see the signs of illegal activity in her, despite the fact that it ended in nothing. However, the presence of Akhmetshin at a meeting with the son of the president, in the opinion of some commentators, gives the whole story a different color: the environment of the candidate Trump could be the object of the operation of the Russian special services.

This is what the potential danger of this episode for President Trump Arch Paddington sees:

Trump's critics for the first time received very significant evidence, from which it is impossible to simply dismiss

- In the political sense, these are important revelations, because they give reasons for suspicions regarding the relations of Donald Trump's environment with representatives of the Kremlin. This means that Trump’s critics first received very significant evidence, from which it is impossible to simply dismiss, indicating that Trump's people were really ready to resort to the Kremlin’s help in the fight against Hillary Clinton. And all this happened when this Russian history began to exhale a little. Now the consequences of these revelations will pursue the president, at least, in the near future, it can be assumed that they will cause a more noticeable damage to Trump's presidency.

-For you personally, this new information gives you a reason to think that behind the smoke of these suspicions, revelations that have been stretching for almost a year, still is there a real fire? All these numerous contacts of Trump people with Russians are not accidental?

- I always believed that the likelihood that the Kremlin provided significant assistance to Trump's campaign headquarters is negligible. But at the same time, I have no answer to the question in this situation in this situation: why people from Trump’s entourage were so readily went to contact with Russian representatives, and often very dubious characters. I would expect Donald Trump will eventually decide to publicly answer the extremely important question: why he is essentially obsessed with the idea of guidance of bridges with Russian representatives, and not representatives of other countries.

- Is there a real danger now for Donald Trump's presidency? After all, some jurisdictions find signs of violation of the law in the actions of his son. On Wednesday, a member of the House of Representatives from the Democratic Party officially made an offer to start the impeachment of the president ...

- When Donald Trump became an official candidate of the Republican Party for President, a large number of Republicans - former high -ranking government servants, prominent analysts, commentators publicly called not to support Trump's candidacy. A year later, despite Trump's problems, this group did not increase the supporters. Trump supports his electorate. His voters are still enthusiastical about his plans. As for the legislators, on which the beginning of the impeachment of the president depends, the majority of the Democrats believe that now such a step will be premature, and the Republicans, being the president’s inability to organize the promotion of bills important for the party and, frankly, the incompetence of his environment, are very far from the idea of abandoning the president’s support. As long as the Republicans are configured against impeachment, the efforts of the Democrats will not lead to anything. Accusations against the president of attempts to undermine the Russian investigation by dismissing the former FBI director are also hardly fraught with serious consequences for Donald Trump. Theoretically, he can make a major mistake, trying to remove the independent prosecutor Robert Muller from the post of independent prosecutor, who is now heading the Russian investigation, by the way, the meeting of Trump Jr. with the Russian lawyer will be in his field of vision. It is known that some of Trump's assistants called him to dismiss Müller, and the president admitted that he was considering this option. If he does this, then the question of the obstacle to the work of justice can turn into a real problem.

- Mr. Paddington, the last days also demonstrated an amazing phenomenon: President Trump spoke in Warsaw with a speech, in which he, in fact, presented Russia as one of the main threats to the Western community following Islamic radical terrorism. And suddenly, two or three days later, we hear from the lips of the president that he had the honor to meet with Vladimir Putin, that he got along with him, that he needed to look into the future, leaving behind the past. How do you explain this bifurcation of the President in relation to Russia? What to believe?

Meeting Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the Summit "Group 20"

- First of all, we, unfortunately, must admit that Donald Trump is not always consistent in his statements. It happened that, having made one statement, he makes the opposite the very next day. Analyzing his attitude to Russia, it is necessary to rely on the template of his behavior. And its constant thesis consists in the need to leave behind the skirmish due to the results of the elections and the intervention of Moscow in them, to accept Putin as a potential partner of the United States. Trump is inclined to downplay the negative role that Russia plays in Syria and especially in Ukraine - he says almost nothing about it. I would say that his speech in Warsaw is being knocked out of this line of behavior, and I would not perceive it as a directive document. Until now, almost all the statements of Donald Trump regarding Russia have been surprisingly positive, given the Russian policy and the negative role that it now plays in the world.

- Like the American president is hypnotized by Putin.

President Trump, judging by his statements, admired Putin and is ready not to notice the hostile policy of Russia against the United States

- I think that Donald Trump is delighted with how Putin managed to change the giant country in accordance with his vision. It is nice to him how Putin alone runs Russia, and he is likely to envy him. I will take the courage to assume that he was convinced by his assistants, that there is a clash of civilizations and in this struggle against radical Islamism of the United States and Russia are on the same side, ”says Arch Paddington.

- Gregory Grushko, on Thursday, during a meeting with France President, Donald Trump returned to the topic of his son’s meeting with a Russian lawyer, publicly defended him, saying that anyone would have gone to such a meeting, this is a common practice in the political process. What do you think, why this episode, which, according to the son of the president, is, in fact, a random meeting, which was not followed, remains in the focus of attention and presses, and, as we see, President Trump?

- This is very simple: the country hostile to us, our opponent, Russia, which intervened in our democratic processes, whose views do not correspond to the so -called democratic views of the West, sent an electronic message through its intermediary to the son of Trump, which says that they have negative information on Hillary Clinton and they are ready to help Trump, - says Gregori Grushko . -This is as close as possible, if not to betrayal, then to some kind of espionage. This is very loud, this is a very important topic. It seems to me that it is not completely and not completely closed.

- You use a rather strong definition, and the supporters of President Trump, by the way, of his supporters, judging, at least, according to public statements, did not decrease as a result of this story, supporters of President Trump say that in this case there is nothing out of the ordinary, Trump himself says about it, and his son says that they are usually doing what they are doing usually during the pre -election campaigns. Roughly speaking, they are trying to find something unpleasant about their opponent .

We have in our hands the first evidence that Russia wanted to help Trump

- Opposition investigation is a traditional form of the election campaign. But even in this kind of rather dirty operations there are certain limits. When, for example, Mr. Gorus was brought by stolen documents from Bush, instead of taking advantage, he sent them to the FBI. Imagine something else, imagine that this message did not come from Russia, but, say, from Iran. There are always two sides, one will say - you are to blame, the other will say - I'm not to blame. But in our hands, the first evidence that Russia wanted to help Trump and was ready to contact his representatives for this. The question is different: why did they do it? Indeed, they wanted Trump or wanted some chaos in the country to produce, increase distrust of political processes, and so on. Most likely, both of them.

- Gregory, let's listen to what Professor Houston University tells me in an interview, in his comments in the Forbes magazine , understanding the actions of President Trump. He sees in this story the meeting of Trump Jr. and Veselnitskaya, roughly speaking, the Kremlin operation:

“There are two possible causes of these events,” says Paul Gregori . -The first that the Russian side, which against Magnitsky’s sanctions, wanted to somehow get acquainted with the Trump team, they used this promise that they had a compromising information against Clinton so that some meeting was settled. I think this is not so, because these are experienced lobbyists, they know how to organize meetings. I think that, perhaps, this is a Russian conspiracy, because the Kremlin’s goal, in my opinion, is a weakening of the American state, the weakening of the president, chaos, and so on. If we see what is happening today - this is the weakening of the president, chaos in American politics. I think this is Putin's goal, he almost achieved this goal.

- That is, you think that there is no conspiracy, but there is simply a provocation from the Russian side?

- Yes. Do you think that the Kremlin will say that he has important negative information about Clinton, that he transfers this information to the son of Trump and because of this this meeting takes place? I doubt that this is done without planning, this is a conspiracy, the purpose of which is to substitute Trump Jr.. This means that the Russian side has this image in which the young Trump says: yes, if there is negative information on Clinton, I will come, meet. When the meeting occurred, he found out that there was no such information.

- Gregory Grushko, how do you like this interpretation of this episode as a pure provocation of the Kremlin? That there is no conspiracy behind this, but only an awkward attempt by son Trump to help his father in a political struggle?

- I agree with Gregori Paul, because there is nothing new in this, Russia has always conducted the so -called active events of the KGB, the FSB. This leads us into history to the case of a letter to Zinoviev and so on. The issue of conspiracy, I also agree, we have no evidence of conspiracy, conspiracy, something like this. Special prosecutor Müller, when he finishes his work, then we will know whether there was a conspiracy or not. At this stage, everything that we know is what Russia has allegedly helped to help Trump's campaign.

- Dmitry Shlyapenth, more than six months have passed since Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House and does not pass at least a week so that the new and unpleasant news for the president regarding the Russian ties of his environment does not appear. Any of his initiatives are immediately overshadowed by the so -called new exposure. The countless committees of Congress are engaged in this story, the president has not yet been conducted through the Congress of any significant bill. And all this, if Gregori Paul is right, the result of the Kremlin’s actions. Was Donald Trump indeed in the trap of Vladimir Putin?

“I can be accused here of some kind of primitive sociologization, but I believe that it can not be said that Trump got into Putin’s trap, that Putin is such a superman who can catch everyone in traps,” says Dmitry Shlyapentoch . -The hatred of Trump, from my point of view, is primarily caused not by the fact that he did something terrible, he behaves like any other republican president, he does nothing special, and Trump causes such hatred in the establishment, not only democratic, but also in part of the republican, because he is a symbol of uncontrollable mass. The American scoop, which they deeply despise, which followed what the newspaper writes or says some expert on television, he follows them. And Trump suddenly turned out to be chosen contrary to the newspapers, contrary to the establishment. From this, their eyes are poured with blood, so they want to eliminate it, or it is advisable to plant it, it is desirable to plant it for his sons, precisely because it turned out to be uncontrollable in a certain way. Here is the reason for such increased activity in relation to Trump, and not at all because he committed some terrible crimes.

- Gregori Grushko, during a recent visit to Poland in his speech in Warsaw, President Trump proposed a sensational, I would say, a look at the role of Russia in the world. He defined her behavior as one of the main threats to the safety of the Western world. Somewhere near Islamic fundamentalism. And suddenly, two days later, during a meeting with Vladimir Putin, he says that the Russian president had an honor to meet him, he says that they would easily put Putin with Putin, and even proposes to create a joint center for the fight against cybercrime, this idea was quickly disavowed. How do you explain this contradiction, can we talk about the principles of Russian policy of the Trump administration today?

- I'm not sure that such a policy exists. How to explain this speech, and then a strange speech, Trump's statement? This is not the first time. Речь – это то, что для него кто-то написал, он очень хорошо прочитал, а, собственно говоря, пожимая руку Путину, улыбаясь, делая прочие комплименты – это уже он сам лично, это уже от сердца, это уже искренне.

– Но вот Пол Грегори предлагает судить о российской политике Трампа не по словам, а по делам, и дела, как считает Пол Грегори, должны были сильно разочаровать Кремль. Вот как он отвечает на вопрос, оказался ли Дональд Трамп в ловушке Владимира Путина:

Президент Трамп выступает с речью в Варшаве

- Don't think. До сих пор это только слова. Если было бы исчезновение санкций, если бы он сказал – нет оружию для Украины, если было бы что-то конкретное, я бы сказал, что он боится немножко. Но до сих пор ничего нет конкретного. Все ругались, что он не подтвердил, что он будет защищать пятую статью НАТО. В Варшаве он сказал "да". Все уже забыли, что ругали, что он это не сделал, ему не отдали должное.

– Пол, и все же при этом он сказал столько добрых в адрес Путина, что Кремль преподнес россиянам эту встречу с Трампом как полную победу российского президента?

Слова имеют мало значения, действия имеют значение. Санкции на месте, будут новые санкции, даже строже

– Слова имеют мало значения, действия имеют значение. Санкции на месте, будут новые санкции, даже строже. Думаю, что будет новое оружие для Украины. Даже Обама сказал, что невозможно забыть, что случилось в Крыму, в восточной Украине, но может быть, есть какие-то места, где у нас есть общие интересы. Когда Трамп говорит о содействии в связи с терроризмом, содействии в Сирии – это продолжение политики, я боюсь сказать, но это продолжение политики Обамы. Но как я сказал – слова и действия, меня больше интересуют действия.

– Грегори Грушко, вот Пол Грегори предлагает оценивать не слова, а действия президента.

Санкции застряли в Конгрессе благодаря администрации Трампа

– Действительно Трампа нужно судить по делам. Санкции застряли в Конгрессе благодаря администрации Трампа, которая вообще не хочет видеть этих санкций, хотела бы ввести определенные ограничения к тому, что было почти на сто процентов утверждено Сенатом. Оружие Украине – это вообще не утверждено никем, за исключением сенатских комитетов, и в ближайшее время никакие поставки оружия не ожидаются. Собственно говоря, дел, каких-то мероприятий по отношению к России пока что нет, есть действительно слова.

– Тем не менее, как любят сейчас в России выражаться, по факту, отмены санкций или ослабления санкций Путин не получил, скорее всего, санкции усилятся. Вероятность передачи Украине оружия становится более высокой, не так ли?

– Тот факт, что что-то не произошло, – это ничего не означает. Важно то, что произойдет дальше или не произойдет. Опять-таки мы этого не знаем, дел нет. Говорить, что вероятно оружие придет в Украину, я не знают, может, придет, может быть, нет. Когда это произойдет, тогда будем разбираться.

– Дмитрий Шляпентох, все-таки, если формулировать в исторически философском контексте нынешнюю позицию президента Трампа или, точнее, американскую внешнеполитическую стратегию эпохи Трампа, этой эпохе уже больше полугода, как бы вы ее определили, как ее вместить в исторический контекст?

– Дело в том, что Америка, в отличие от тоталитарного Китая или Советского Союза, – это не страна агентов, то есть это не страна личностей, как Горбачев, который действительно вместе с Ельциным изничтожил государство, это страна структур, которые во многом определяют позицию президента вне зависимости от его личных притязаний и желаний. Возьмем два предыдущих важнейших этапа. Первый этап – это эпоха абсолютного безраздельного господства американцев, конец 80-х – начало 90-х годов. Эпоха, когда все решается, если они не собираются сами двинуться в конец истории, провозглашенный Фукуямой, мы принудим их с помощью ракет и десантников, а там найдем массу причин, почему мы должны к вам залезть. Это войны в Сербии, это война в Ираке. Второй период – это уже период обамовский, когда ощущение, что что-то не получается, мы тратим огромные деньги, посылаем туда солдат, которых убивают в Ираке, война происходит, выходят из-под контроля те или иные регионы. Но тут появляется другая модель действий, а мы хитроумные, у нас самые лучшие университеты, самые лучшие мыслители, мы сделаем так с помощью этой мягкой силы, что мы достигнем всего, чего мы хотим, но без применения силы. Третий этап начинает вырисовываться при Трампе. С одной стороны, происходят чисто шизофренические действия, типа действий, например, в Северной Корее, то я угрожаю ее стереть в порошок, а потом говорю: знаете, я был бы очень рад посидеть с хорошо откормленным лидером и обсудить наши дела. Такие же отношения с Путиным, с Россией. С одной стороны, угроза – мы вас ужмем санкциями, с другой стороны, понимание того, что нужно находить компромисс, находить компромисс и в Восточной Европе, и в Сирии. Поскольку этот момент еще не кристаллизовался в сознании элит, где ограничение американских возможностей, то это все вызывает непредсказуемые шизофренические действия. С точки зрения Кремля, как я их читаю, не хотят они абсолютного господства, дайте нам кусок нашего пирога в Восточной Европе, кое-что дайте нам на Ближнем Востоке. Эта модель во многом сходна с моделью холодной войны, где было тоже разделение сфер влияния, возможностей, отсюда Кремль так любит Киссинджера, и Путин его встречал, туда прибыл Киссинджер, 94-летний старик, газета "Завтра" о нем написала панегирик, о некоем таком мистическом скарабее, который содержит в себе мировую власть.

– Вы, собственно, говорите об абсурдной, на взгляд подавляющего большинства американских аналитиков, идее так называемой большой сделки со страной, не вызывающей доверия у соседей, с экономикой, равной итальянской экономике и способной лишь причинять проблемы, чтобы привлечь к себе внимание. Грегори, как вы относитесь к идее раздела пирога с Путиным, которую отмел Трамп в своей варшавской речи?

– Я считаю, что Путин больше всего хочет выживаемости его и его режима, людей вокруг него, и самое главное – это сохранение своих богатств. Идеологии здесь никакой нет. Я согласен с Дмитрием полностью, что у него нет никаких гигантских амбиций на весь мир, завоевание территорий. Да нет, все, что он хочет, чтобы в России не было бунта, чтобы его не вынесли из Кремля, не сделали с ним то, что сделали с Каддафи.

– Дмитрий Шляпентох, чем, с вашей точки зрения, чреваты все эти коллизии, о которых мы говорили?

– Есть такой правый публицист, которого любил очень Путин, Леонтьев. И он совершенно правильно сказал, с моей точки зрения, что если раньше во время холодной войны обе стороны знали свои пределы, в общем-то, поступали во всех случаях рационально, то сейчас наступает эпоха иррациональных действий, причем иррациональность необязательно исходит от мистических русских, иррациональных персов, она может исходить вполне от таких же иррациональных американцев.