The project of the expert network "Davydov. Index", the election of the head of Mari El, the forecast of experts. Mikhail Vinokurov, Valentin Sevastyanov, Alexey Seryogin

The third part of the review of the Davydov. Index project publishes expert opinions and forecasts of Mikhail Vinokurov, Valentina Sevastyanov, Alexei Seryogin.

The first and second parts of the review are available by links: https://7x7-journal.ru/post/96738 , https://7x7-journal.ru/post/96851

Mikhail Vinokurov , journalist (supporter of moderate-centric views)

As of early July, the situation in Mari El is as follows. United Russia supported in the upcoming September elections the candidacy of the acting head of Mari El Alexander Evstifeev. The regional branch of the Communist Party of the Communist Party was not nominated, but supported the candidacy of Evstifeev.
LDPR and fair Russia nominated its regional leaders - Albert Fedorov and Natalia Glushchenko. The party of the civilian platform delegated to the elections of the head of the head of its regional branch Andrei Smyslyaev. The Green Party nominated Nikolai Semenov as a candidate, and the party “pensioners for social justice” - Valentina Zlobin.

The alignment by and large is understandable. The unconditional favorite is Evstifeev. He could be a representative of the Communist Party of the Communist Party (either Kirov Mamaev, who took second place in the previous governor elections, or Kazanov, the current State Duma deputy). However, the Communists made a difficult, but “most appropriate to the modern political and economic situation”, the decision.

In this situation, the struggle for the second place in the elected race will be interesting - Fedorov, Glushchenko, S andesyev. All of them participated in the Duma elections and have experience in political struggle, but they are unlikely to be able to compete with Evstifeev. The outsiders of the race are Semenov and Zlobin. Rather, one of them will be just a technical candidate-just in case.

None of the candidates is particularly active at the moment. The exception is Evstifeev. He, as the head of the republic, travels a lot to the region, holds meetings on urgent problems - road farming, transport, business, and agriculture. He is trying to actively work as a Sperisyev, who acts even as a blogger on one of the local Internet resources. By the way.

If you look at the official sites of the regional departments of the Duma opposition, then the most relevant topic for discussion is the decision of the Communist Party of the Communist Party not to nominate its candidate. The Communists are justified, their opponents (for example, LDPR) accuse the Communist Party of giving up without a fight.

Now the main thing for candidates is to overcome the municipal filter. And perhaps everyone understands that it will not be easy. I do not exclude that one of the declared candidates will still remain overboard.

Evstifeev is the main favorite in the September elections. I will assume that he will win in the first round, gaining more than 50 percent of the vote. As for the turnout, the “potato factor” can play. The beginning of September is the time to dig potatoes and harvest. I do not think that the turnout will be more than the one that was in Mari El in the Duma elections last year.

So far there are such numbers in my head:
Evstifeev - 65%, Fedorov, Glushchenko, Smyshlyaev - about 5%, maliber or Semenov - from 0 to 2%.

The main difference is that in previous elections, people voted either for Markelov or against him. Here, “just communist Mamaev fell into the stream, who took the voices of those who were tired of Markelov’s reign. Now the situation is different. There is no Markelov. There is Evstifeev - a good and correct candidate. And there is a desire to get rid of his help from Markelov's heritage.

Valentin Sevastyanov , member of the ONF regional headquarters, chairman of the regional public organization “Center for the Study of Public Security-Centurion” of the Republic of Mari El (supporter of social-conservative views)

In addition to the fact that the Mari El Communist Party at the party’s conference on June 22 refused to nominate a candidate in the early elections of the head of the region and supported in the election of the temporarily acting head of the republic, Alexander Evstifeyev, there were no surprises. It can be assumed that the reason for this was the disappearance from the political Olympus of the longtime opponent of the Communist Party - L.I. Markelova. And the support of the Communists of the acting can mean the occurrence of a new consolidation of forces to jointly solve the problems accumulated in the republic. It is also worth noting that Alexander Evstifeev, judging by information from the official media, pays great attention to the development of the agricultural industry, which could also be one of the factors in obtaining support from the Communist Party.

At the moment, the following candidates have been nominated:
1) Alexander Alexandrovich Evstifyev (non -partisan (nominated by United Russia))
2) Albert Ivanovich Fedorov (LDPR)
3) Andrey Aleksandrovich Smyslyaev (civilian platform)
4) Natalia Vladimirovna Glushchenko (fair Russia)
5) Valentina Timofeevna Zlobina (RPPS)
6) Nikolai Viktorovich Semenov (green)

The list of 6 surnames says that any batch could appear. Which happened. At the same time, the Communist Party had the opportunity to become one of the main competitors in the elections, but an alternative decision was made and it must be respected.
I want to make a reservation right away that this forecast is based only on the basis of conclusions of a particular person, without sociological research.

It can be assumed that the turnout will be at least 40%. At the moment, the acting in the media space has a kind of acting. The heads of RME, the rest of the media candidates are low, and therefore not a high level of recognition. At the same time, Alexander Alexandrovich Evstifeev, as the acting head of Mari El, chose a clear and understandable course of development of the republic, aimed at the result. From official sources, we can conclude about its technocratic, clear approach to process management, focusing on the development of specific industries, solving specific problems and orientation on KPI - specific digital results of activity, and not on the implementation of the “process for the process”. It was not possible to find specific steps or plans for Mari El from other candidates in open sources.

The alleged capabilities of candidates as a percentage:

1) Alexander Alexandrovich Evstifeev (non -partisan (nominated by United Russia)) 70%

2) Albert Ivanovich Fedorov (LDPR) 15%

3) Andrey Aleksandrovich Smyslyaev (civilian platform) 5%

4) Natalia Vladimirovna Glushchenko (fair Russia) 5%

5) Valentina Timofeevna Zlobina (RPPS) 3%

6) Nikolai Viktorovich Semenov (green) less than 3%

The main differences between the current election campaign are the actual absence of open criticism of candidates by competitors. It can be assumed that the activation of election activity will be a month before the election.

Alexey Seryogin , journalist, coordinator of movement in defense of voter rights "Voice" in the Republic of Mari El (supporter of National Democratic views)

The fact that the elections will be was clear on April 6th. Candidates began to be declared about the desire to run for a run in June. Why did they lose two months? From my point of view, no one but the appointed acting The heads of Mari El Alexander Evstifeev, seriously fight for power and was not going to.

Evstifeev led his election campaign from the first day of his appointment as all Russian elected officials lead it. Evstifeev also builds his administration, which, according to the Russian tradition, is his real election headquarters.

Will the district authorities threaten the dismissal for the low result of the acting In the election? Let's see. Former head of Mari El Leonid Markelov actively used these methods.

Alexander Evstifeev emerged from United Russia. Deputy Director of JSC ZHEUK Zarechny, the head of the local branch of the LDPR Albert Fedorov went to the polls from this party. The head of the regional department of the party, Natalya Glushchenko, was exhibited from Fair Russia. From the "Party of Pensioners for Justice" is also the leader of the local branch of the party Valentin Zlobin. The Green Party nominated the chief inspector of the technical supervision department of PJSC Rosseti Nikolai Semenov. All of them are now gathering the votes of municipal deputies.

There is no candidate from the Communist Party in these elections. In the elections to the State Duma, this party received the highest percentage of the result in Russia, and its candidate Ivan Kazankov won the Mari single -mandate district. In the election of the head of Mari El 2015, the Candidate from the Communist Party Sergei Mamaev scored 35%, winning in the two largest cities of the republic. The victory of Leonid Markelov in those elections was provided by Central Asian results in several regions of the republic. In competent work, the same Kazankov and Mamaev, based on their fame in the republic, the organizational and financial capabilities of the Communist Party, had serious chances of victory. But the Mari regional branch of the Communist Party decided to support Alexander Evstifeev in these elections
Other assumptions about the motives of this decision of the Communist Party of the Communist Party were also expressed. The father of Sergei Kazankov Ivan Kazankov has recently been opened by a criminal case. He was convicted, but amnesty and remained free. However, the deputy mandate in the local State Assembly was taken away from him.

According to observers, friendship with Evstifeev is now more profitable for the business of Kazankov - Zvenigovsky meat processing plant than confrontation with it. The former radical opposition to the Kazankovs Leonid Markelov was caused by a large extent the heavy character of the latter. The Kazankovs have no personal problems with Alexander Evstifeev.

Alexander Evstifeev has a clear advantage over everyone. The main thing is that he is the only one to fight for power. The rest of the candidates imitate the power struggle. Only Alexander Evstifeev will not have any problems with passing, since most municipal deputies are United Russia. It will be difficult to overcome the other candidates the “municipal filter”. Evstifeev will have the largest budget for visual agitation.

United Russia has the dense network of agitators and the greatest opportunities to pay for their services. The party in power controls all the media in the region, except for the circulations of the Communist Party and the LDPR and several Internet sites. The controlled parties of the power of the media will be engaged in the obvious and hidden advertisements of Alexander Evstifeev, and most likely, they will simply prefer to talk about his rivals as little as possible.
It makes no sense to evaluate the possibilities of candidates in these elections due to the lack of Evstifeev’s competitors to really fight him.

Fedorov and Glushchenko will have some money that they will send them from the central leadership of the party. The rest will have nothing at all other than guaranteed by the law on the election of a place in the media for debate and agitation.

In the elections to the State Assembly of Mari El, it amounted to 41.67%, in the elections of the head of Mari El 2015 - 47.09%, in the elections to the State Duma for Mari El - 53.3%. In all these elections, Leonid Markelov played a huge role. On the one hand, he was unpopular. Many voted on the principle of "anyone, if only not Markels." On the other hand, he crushed all the levers of power in Mari El. It seemed to many that he could not even lose even theoretically, and did not go to the elections.
Now this factor is not. There is no intrigue. There are no charismatic candidates-communists Mamaev and Kazankov, who attracted some kind of people who are usually not going to the elections. All candidates are faded. Evstifyev will try to mobilize the electorate, which votes stably from year to year for United Russia.

I suppose that the turnout will be 46%.

Source: http://davydov.in