The project of the expert network "Davydov. Index", the election of the head of Mari El, the forecast of experts. The second stage. Dmitry Lyubimov: The situation with the collection of signatures acquires a scandalous shade. Mikhail Vinokurov: The election campaign is quite boring and sluggish

Dmitry Lyubimov , editor of the regional section of the Internet magazine "7x7"

It is still not clear which of the candidates representing non-parliamentary parties will be registered by the results of the collection of signatures of the “municipal filter”. As in many election regions, the situation with the collection of signatures acquires a scandalous shade. Thus, the candidate from the “Civil Platform” Andrei Smyslyaev drew attention to the involvement of the administration of the acting head of Mari El Alexander Evstifeev and, obviously, his employees of his election headquarters, to the collection of signatures of municipal deputies for all candidates. Smyslyaev suspected officials and temporary employees of his rival headquarters in the fact that they introduced another “filter” and decide in such a way, which of the candidates to twist to the elections, and whoever is not.

The point here is also that, unlike the elections of the head of the region in 2015, during the current election campaign, the administration of the head of the region publicly did not indicate its position on the “municipal filter. She did not arrange meetings of candidates with deputies in the districts. Nevertheless, actually performing the same work as their predecessors. But secretly - and this is a serious difference.

The last of the events of the election campaign in Mari El was the appearance of the first candidate who gathered and transferred 123 municipal deputies to his support in the election room. It was Alexander Evstifyev, acting head of the region. On the eve of Evstifeev’s visit to the CEC of the Republic, Russian President Vladimir Putin came to Yoshkar-Ola. Putin handed over the acting head of Mari El “Daddy” with the appeals of residents entering Moscow.

The first street campaign for candidates appeared in Yoshkar-Ola: a large roadside billboard (possibly not one) with the image of Alexander Evstifyev, a medium-sized banner on one of the residential houses with Andrei Smyslyaev and many small leaflets, which are opened on the poles and entrances of houses advertising a candidate from the Party of Pensioners Valentina Zlobin. The other two candidates are Natalia Glushchenko (“SR”) and Albert Fedorov (LDPR) intensified on social networks: Fedorov even started a special election account. Nikolai Semenov ("Green") went to a meeting organized by the regional branch of "United Russia" for candidates who require help in overcoming the "municipal filter". Semenov asked United Russia to support. The rest of the candidates ignored the meeting. Probably, for various reasons, someone has already collected the required signatures, and someone is not allowed to contact on election issues with representatives of United Russia.

The chances of candidates, if we talk about their approximate location in the alleged final table, did not change. In these elections, which could not have been carried out, since they discredit the procedure almost as well as falsification of voting results, of course, the acting head of Mari El will certainly win. Its resource is not comparable. By inheritance from the former governor, Alexander Evstifeev got obedient and completely dependent media. There are practically no independent publications in the republic. Perhaps, except for the 7x7 website, which I imagine, I will not call anyone.

On the electoral account of Evstifeev, by June 11, 16.5 million rubles have already been placed. The closest competitor - Albert Fedorov from the LDPR was able to collect 1 million rubles. The remaining candidates operate in amounts within 100 thousand rubles.

Such an election campaign, which is now being conducted by Evstifeev’s headquarters, is probably connected with the study of the dynamics of hidden sociology without regard to reputational responses. Open surveys of popularity of candidates in Mari El are not published.

And I would reduce the initial assessment of the forecast for Evstifeev. For the first time, I indicated his victorious result as 60-70 percent. I think that now it would be possible to put him 55 percent. The campaign of Alexander Evstifeev begins to acquire the features of last year's campaign Larisa Yakovleva (United Russia). She was also advertised quite a lot in the media, her images were almost located on monopoly rights on the streets of Yoshkar-Ola. A fairly large media advanced did not help, she lost to the communist Sergei Kazankov about 10 percent.

The results of the rest of the canides can be left without adjustment. Despite the very low activity of Fyodorov and Glushchenko and vice versa, the increased - squinting and malice. I will not allocate any of the candidates of the “lower row” - whether Andrei Smyslyaev, Valentina Zlobin and Nikolai Semenov will receive candidate status, will receive candidate status a little later.

As for the evaluation of the turnout in the elections: the situation of the predictability of the result will invariably reduce it. It is not the “respectful” by Alexander Evstifyev who are silent and in all consonants in advance that the actual candidates, but critics of the acting headquarters, and his election headquarters, can increase the turnout. There is something to criticize for, this is obvious now: the filtering of the media, the unspoken actions of the administration when “passing” by the candidates of the “municipal filter”, begins to resemble a person who is uncontrollable Czechard, and the formation of this election configuration of candidates, excluding the participation of a strong competitor Evstifyev.

In the first forecast, I said that the turnout will be 42%. Now I would reduce the turnout by another 5 %. (i.e. - there will be 37%). The reason is the increasing predictability of the result and the possible departure of interesting candidates, such as Andrei Smyshlyaev.

The election campaign is gradually gaining momentum. Until July 26, those six candidates who declared their desire to occupy the governor’s chair were to submit a full package of documents to the CEC of the republic. The favorite of the election race, Alexander Evstifeev, handed over the documents first and the whole intrigue was that the others could overcome the so -called “municipal filter”. That is, to present the support sheets of the candidate with the signatures of deputies of representative bodies of municipalities. They needed to collect at least 123 in their support, a maximum of 129 signatures.

Representatives of the United Russia party said that "there will be no administrative, neither political, nor personal, nor human pressure for any deputy by United Russia." In turn, one of the applicants for the post of head of Mari El Andrei Smyshlyaev said that not everything is so smooth with the collection of signatures. As a result, 4 candidates were registered: Alexander Evsifeev, Albert Fedorov, Natalya Glushchenko and Valentina Zlobin. Andrei Smyslyaev and Nikolai Semenov did not succeed in providing a full package of documents. Smyslyaev, who failed to pass the municipal filter, accused the administrative resource of everything.

And the rest - the first campaign materials appeared. Some of them have a format of three by six meters, someone has A4 leaflets and simple calendars. Those who wish can read the election orientation newspapers. There is a certain movement on the Internet. Small activity is observed in Kozmodemyansk and Volzhsky district. There, in September, in addition to the head of Mari El, they will choose two deputies of the republican parliament and the main political parties nominated their candidates.

The main event of the last days is the arrival/arrival of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Yoshkar-Ola. From the point of view of the upcoming elections, the third point of the official program of the stay of Vladimir Vladimirovich in the capital of Mari El was interesting. This is a meeting with the acting head of the republic, Alexander Evstifeev. It is noteworthy what Putin said: “You cannot be responsible for everything. It seems to be. But now you are acting. No matter how sad it is for you, you must still bear this responsibility, regardless of whether it was some kind of mistakes of past years related to you or not related. But now you are at this place, please take up all the questions, problematic and those that you consider promising. I brought you a daddy with remarks of people who live here and really hope that the federal authorities and you will pay attention to this. ”

Now, in the hands of Evstifeev, an additional “trump card” has appeared. The same Putin's "daddy" is green. And the very next day, Alexander Alexandrovich said: "The presidential instructions are not discussed, but are subject to execution." And in hot pursuit, in full, two directors of construction companies, whose employees complained to the president of the country to delay the payment of salaries.

Of the other events, I will highlight the following: the appearance of the first president Mari El Vladislav Zotin as the chairman of the Public Chamber of the Republic, the continuing rotation of personnel in the regional government in the regional government.

The political alignment has not changed. Favorite is one. This is Evstifeev. All other candidates will only imitate the election struggle. If Sperniaev overcame the municipal filter, then the elections could go to the “scandals/intrigue” format. But this is only an assumption, and at the moment the election campaign is quite boring and sluggish.

Turnout - 45%. Personals: Evstifeev - 65%, the remaining candidates - about 3%.

Source: http://davydov.in