What is behind the unexpected threats of North Korea?

The mysterious Mr. Lee Jeon Ho fled from North Korea to the capitalist south in October 2014 - nothing is still reported about the method and route of its disappearance. Before the escape, he held a high general post of deputy head of the secret “department 39” of the Central Committee of the Korea labor party, which oversaw both legal and illegal operations to supply the DPRK by foreign currency. Lee Jong Hoo was in charge of, in particular, by supplying coal and seafood abroad - the most important export goods of Pyongyang. Few of the defectors own the topic of foreign trade in the DPRK as detailed as he.

So, Mr. Lee, who is now in the USA, in an interview with Japanese journalists by e -mail, announced this week that the economic situation for North Korea changed fundamentally after a new package of sanctions, unanimously adopted on August 5, the Council of Security of the UN in response to the next missile launches of Pyongyan. These measures provide for a total ban on purchasing iron, lead, ore, stone coal, seafood in the DPRK. The Americans who have developed sanctions claim that their implementation will reduce Pyongyan from foreign trade, which Washington estimates at 3 billion dollars a year.

However, the defector believes that the situation is even more serious. According to him, real export revenues to the DPRK treasury, with the exception of small income from Tekstil trade, amount to no more than $ 2 billion a year. At the same time, losses from the new sanctions of the UN Security Council will reach $ 1.7 billion, according to a specialist. In other words, we are talking about the loss of almost 80% of export revenues, which can become an incredibly painful blow. According to the defector, something, of course, can be compensated by smuggling and other actions bypassing sanctions, but the situation in any case, according to Mr. Lee, "is qualitatively different from the previous one."

A few months later, a fugitive expert believes, in the DPRK, due to lack of currency, acute problems with the purchase of raw materials for enterprises, including metallurgical, and food for the population. Minks who have lost dollars and yuan will not be able to feed their workers, and the lack of export sales will lead to an increase in multimillion -dollar unemployment. A particularly painful blow, the defector believes, will be inflicted on the most energetic and living part of the North Korean economy - a private private sector now legalized with its small enterprises and restaurants actually in personal property. There everything is based on calculations in solid currency, and its disappearance will really strangle the dealers of the free market.

"Mars" aimed at guam

It seems that Pyongyang will not put up with the fact that his economic base will be continuously crumbled under the weight of sanctions. Moreover, recently, affairs in the DPRK were almost good - in 2016, according to the experts of the Central Seoul Bank of Korea, the DPRK National Product grossed by 3.9%. It is now estimated at $ 28.6 billion (more than that of Paraguay, but a little less than that of Cameroon). But sanctions can put an end to even such a modest economic boom, and the rules for the conduct of the Kim dynasty ruling in the country require external challenges to meet unexpected threats.

It was with this, apparently, that the unprecedented statement of the DPRK strategic forces was connected in concreteness: on August 11, he fenced the world with a message that by the middle of the month the country's leader Kim Jong -Yunu would be presented a plan of the American Pacific Island, which is located at a distance of a little more than 3 thousand km from the DPRD. Four medium-range missiles “Shzason-12” (“Mars-12”) will fly this distance, as was said, in 17 minutes 45 seconds-including over Japanese territory. After that, they should hit the ocean at a distance of 30–40 km from the tropical resort guam, beaches, bars and shops of which are filled with crowds of tourists - mainly from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan. Since 2012, the system of visa -free entry from Russia has been operating there - so there are also many compatriots on the island, especially from the Far East.

But aside from tourist routes on Guam is an object for servicing nuclear submarines, and most importantly, an extremely important US Air Force Military Strategy for the U.S. Military Strategy. It is from there that American strategic bombers of the B-52 and B-1 take off, which periodically carry out shares of intimidation over the Korean peninsula, practicing the tactics of striking along the DPRK. These planes are believed to play the most important role in any scenario of Washington’s military operation against North Korea, the probability of which increased after the arrogant threats of Pyongyan to imitate a missile attack on the GUAM to demonstrate their military capabilities.

However, the tension was growing dangerously earlier - only in July the DPRK conducted two tests of missiles, which experts in the USA, South Korea and Japan consider it quite successful prototypes of intercontinental, capable of stabing in the main territory of America. The real weapon of this kind of Kim Jong -un is still on - the video showed that during the last test on August 28, the head of the rocket that fell into the sea at the northern Japanese island of Okusima broke up into several fragments, unable to withstand the overload when entering the earthly atmosphere from space. However, American government experts in any case are under a strong impression of a powerful and rather unexpected DPRK jerk in the development of missile technology. Most believe that the intercontinental missile ready to use may appear in the DPRK next year. Disputes are only about when the engineers of the Kim dynasty will be able to equip such systems with reliable nuclear warheads.

Trump promises a "sea of ​​fire"

The reaction of US President Donald Trump to threats from North Korea corresponded to his boiled temperament and surprisingly resembled the propaganda style of Pyongyang, which regularly promises to bring down the heads of imperialists and their puppets "Sea of ​​Fire". The owner of the White House after the threat to launch the missiles on Guam, he replaced on Twitter that the response to the attack would be "fire and rage, which the world has not yet seen." For several days, many on the planet really believed in the probability of war - perhaps nuclear. Japan brought its forces in full combat readiness to the forces of the missile defense - warships entered the sea, and numerous ground -based missiles were set up on the potential route of the North Korean missiles.

By military power in the United States in the region they are incomparably superior to Pyongyang, but it has its own mighty trump card: the prosperous Seoul, the capital of South Korea, is only 24 km from the demarcation line with the north. At this line, the DPRK concentrated the group of artillery and rocket lamp systems in power, capable of bringing down the “sea of ​​fire” mentioned above at all at once - about 9 thousand shells. In the first hour of attack, up to half a million shots can be made. Even at the maximum speed speed, such a shelling will lead to unacceptable losses among the civilian population.

In addition, Pyongyang concentrated on the demarcation line two -thirds of his millionth army, including a well -trained special forces of about 20 thousand people. After the first paralyzing blow by artillery, he can capture the same Seoul and take it entirely hostage, which will allow you to start bargaining with the Americans from strong positions.

These factors forced the United States in 1994 to abandon the military option for solving the North Korean issue, although then the Bill Clinton administration was very close to this. But now the situation may have changed. Military experts in the United States and Japan say that the first blow with the involvement of 600 or more “tomahawks” of the sea base can still be quickly disabled by the formidable North Korean artillery. At the same time, hundreds of combat aircraft, including strategic bombers, will deprive Pyongyang the opportunity to launch ballistic missiles, eliminate its nuclear facilities, and control systems.

Of course, Comrade Kim Jong -un will not risk joke with such power - he is quite pragmatic. The horror story about the blow in the Guam zone was invented not for the start of the war, but in order to again attract maximum attention to the terrible and unpredictable North Korea after adopting the UN suffocating sanctions. This was perfectly succeeded-at the height of a solid vacation of August, the media of all leading countries continuously said that the world was on the verge of a nuclear war due to the Stalinist dictator in Pyongyang and a near quick-tempered showman in the White House. Representatives of many powers spoke about the need for an immediate search for a peaceful solution, and China and Russia called on Pyongyang and Washington to make mutual concessions.

Kim needs negotiations on equal terms

Periodic injection of crises is part of the routine policy of the Kim dynasty, including for internal mobilization. Now rallies are underway throughout North Korea, demonstrating steel determination to die for the leader, almost 3.5 million young party members, students and schoolchildren have submitted applications with a request to write them down by volunteers and send them to the front. This, of course, is the component of the show - to feed such a breakthrough of additional soldiers Pyongyang simply will not be able to. But on nervous foreigners, such messages make a frightening impression - as well as leaks of information about the recall of the DPRK ambassadors from leading countries for an emergency meeting in Pyongyang.

The main goal of Kim Jong -un, like his late father, is to start direct negotiations with the United States as equal with an equal. Moreover, Pyongyang is perfectly seen - President Trump does not have a clear strategy regarding the Korean Peninsula. That is why the DPRK initially caused an artificial crisis with its statement about the possibility of a blow to the Guam zone, and on August 15, slightly rolled back. Comrade Kim, we recall, said then that he approves the plan presented to him by the military, but so far he will wait for his fulfillment, giving “reckless and stupid Yankees” time to change his mind and revise his policy.

Pyongyang hopes that, through maneuvers in negotiations, he will be able to achieve a weakening of suffocating sanctions of August 5, or at least create conditions for their actual non -fulfillment. Well, the main goal is a peace treaty with the United States, the establishment of diplomatic relations with Washington and Tokyo, the complete removal of economic blockade, the recognition of the DPRK as a legal nuclear power.

Negotiations also make it possible to win precious time for the final creation of a nuclear missile potential with an indisputable opportunity to threaten the United States. At the current regime, Pyongyans will never refuse from this goal and believes that sooner or later he will achieve his own.