Framed again?

The sharp escalation in the “case of Kirill Serebrennikov” is understandable in the context of the recent defeats of the “siloviki”

It is unlikely that the detention of Kirill Serebrennikov was predetermined by the logic of the Gogol Center case. But even after that, the verdict in this case is not yet predetermined: not in the sense that it can be acquitted - this does not happen now, but it can still turn out to be conditional.

This stems not from the "Gogol Center affair" but from the broader context of a long game or even a series of games played for a single spectator and referee "announcing the score." In this series, the Investigative Committee and the structures of the FSB associated with it have just suffered two crushing defeats (only from among the iconic and visible to us too).

• The first and largest is, of course, the Ulyukaev case. We, who are watching from afar and seeing only a little, understand that there is something completely different from what the investigation presented in the version of the prosecution. But the only viewer sees it much better, perhaps even thoroughly.

• The second defeat, surprisingly, is the case of the Karelian memorialist Yuri Dmitriev . Probably, some Karelian special services, unable to count two steps ahead, excited him as a quiet and purely “regional”, however, given the absurdity of the accusation of “pornography”, human rights activists and, more broadly, the intelligentsia managed to raise it to the international level, from where the responses could not reach the president. And here, of course, the verdict is also unlikely to be acquittal (although it is simply impossible to imagine what the judge will write in the motivational part of the indictment), but that one “judge” sees everything perfectly and is already counting the TFR and his friends from the FSB with a terrible “steering wheel” : framed again!

Of course, they are not defeated by any specific “enemies”, but only by their own self-confidence and incompetence, but real competitors will not be slow to take advantage of this. This apparatus struggle is unfolding against the backdrop of an instruction from the president, including the HRC, to submit proposals on “measures to ensure the independence of judges, openness and transparency in the administration of justice”, these proposals are presented and contain sharp criticism of the investigating authorities (which the judges simply cover).

Commissioner for the Protection of the Rights of Entrepreneurs Boris Titov, speaking on behalf of business and understanding what exactly can be said, agreed that it would be necessary to return to the prosecutor's office the supervision over the work of the investigation taken from it in 2011, in particular, control over detentions, searches and other the most important investigations. And this is not "liberals" for you.

Having fallen under check from this side,

The Investigative Committee and its friends are in a hurry to win back on the other board, smearing "liberals", as if secretly present behind everyone's backs, except their own.

It is impossible to imagine a more suitable figure for this than Kirill Serebrennikov. This matter is also convenient because the president cannot afford to interfere in it publicly: this would mean a step towards the very intelligentsia , distrust and slight hostility towards which consolidates not only the most important "power bloc", but also a very significant part of its electorate.

On the other hand, the “theatrical case”, if it is considered by the court according to the current (de facto, but de jure) rules, has a 100% “judicial perspective”. Of course, there is selective law enforcement here, but this line of lawlessness was taken by our judicial system 12 years ago - starting with the verdict in the first case of Khodorkovsky and Lebedev.

Now the next frontier is next in line, which, in less high-profile cases, the courts and investigating authorities already neglect: proving the subjective side of the crime. Indeed, according to the law, its full-fledged composition describes not only formal actions, but also intent and its shades - motives. In order to accuse Serebrennikov not just of covering cash, but of embezzlement, it is necessary to prove his mercenary motive and not just the intent to enrich himself, but also the fact of it: how much he put in his pocket. Of course, it is difficult for the security forces to imagine such a thing - well, suddenly you didn’t put it in?

Today, almost any judge who depends primarily on the secret services for personnel will somehow justify in a conviction any nonsense that the investigation will slip on him, especially in a case that has such a pronounced political connotation. On the other hand, the judges are also asleep and see (still in a dream) how they can get rid of this unpleasant and disgraceful addiction. And then suddenly the Investigative Committee and others like it lose on several boards at once. Why not consider the “Gogol Center case” according to the law? ..

Everyone is looking up, and from there they only heard aloud: "Yes, fools ...". So it is so, but what do you order to do?

As for the "intelligentsia", although Serebrennikov's position today, alas, looks all the worse, the more active his public support turns out to be, under such conditions of turbulence that has arisen, one should try to build up pressure.