Nothing to change

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev headed the “Rating of the successors of Vladimir Putin”, compiled by the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation. The first five also included Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin, Governor of the Tula region Alexei Dyumin, Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu, speaker of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko. Oppositionist Alexei Navalny is also in the ranking - he is in eighteenth place.

The publication of such a rating in the August days, not richly in events ( the detention of Kirill Serebrennikov was not yet known) caused a revival - he ended up in the Yandex news top, some political scientists began to seriously comment on him, others - to be indignant at the frivolity of the study, the others said that the alternatives were simply not, the fourth - that it was a joke or a kind of provocation. It was obvious that the topic of the successor was worried about many, and the head of the St. Petersburg Politics Foundation Mikhail Vinogradov distributed comments and quoted with visible pleasure on his Facebook page those who spoke out of the rating. Mikhail Vinogradov is not alien to Self -irony - on the same page on Facebook, he placed the post of Alexei Chesnakov, who writes that, along with completely serious products, “St. Petersburg Policy” “flows a frank stem into the agenda.” This was written about another recent rating of “St. Petersburg politics” - the rating of governors “in connection with the upcoming introduction of the“ image of the future ”parameter in the assessment of their campaign.

This time, the decision could seem to be a decision at the head of Dmitry Medvedev’s “Successful rating”, the protagonist of the FBK film “He is not Dimon”, the author of the phrases about “There is no money” and about the same “compote” (regarding the same film by Alexei Navalny), the owner of the house for the ducks, the public mention of which has already become in Russia, if not criminal, then administrative, then not administrative violation. The authors of the report of “St. Petersburg Policy” believe that these negative trends in the image of the prime minister are overcome, he enjoys Putin’s confidence, a certificate of which - the participation of the President in the Crimea annexed by Russia, during which bright statements were made about the need to create “Russian Mecca”, the sad fate of Schubert, and Biker Surgeon was again awarded royal embrace.

Mikhail Vinogradov does not hide what he wanted to "shake" the expert community with the theme of the "successor".

The main claims to the rating were that Putin could not have successors

-One of the commentators called the successor rating “graceful provocation”. Will you agree with this definition?

- No. Usually, such a product causes a media resonance in two cases. When it is very accurately waiting for readers and to a certain extent codifies what people have already heard and knew. Or when it contains a completely different resonance picture, which allows you to differently interpret the situation, "explodes" the usual picture of the world. I think that the resonance of the “rating of successors” is associated with the fact that both of them managed. He returns a conversation about successors to the agenda. Moreover, in it there is a need for those who analyze the political process, regardless of what the closest political future will be. And, on the other hand, the publication has a fairly conservative content, it does not have a sensation, there are no big surprises, and the picture of expectations is represented approximately as it looks today by many political experts, both the media and representatives of the political establishment.

The presence of Yandex was pleasantly surprised, but this indicates that we were lucky in the sense that we were in some expectations, in the desire to somehow construct the agenda of the nearest political season. Without talking to the conversations about what the scenario of the election campaign will be, what the turnout should be, with the understanding that those events that occur at the moment is sometimes brighter and more important than what is designed in terms of medium -term. Maybe it was possible to a little return to political experts a niche that they probably should occupy-a niche of a calm, neutral conversation that cuts off fakes, which recently in the media and in telegram channels, but not claiming their own political game.

- What will you answer to those who called your rating not serious, who considered that this is just a joke?

Dmitry Medvedev partly overcame the reputational political blows that he received

- I am grateful for any response. It seems to me that our product is quite conservative and serious in terms of describing the immediate prospects, the nearest personnel reserve. The main claims to the rating were that Putin could not have successors, the mechanism of political continuity in Russia is absent, and this can not be discussed at all. There were critical statements about the presence in the ranking of Alexei Navalny, who, probably, really not in the classical sense of the successor, but such a conditional, hypothetical shifter. But in general, I am grateful for the fact that most Russian political experts and many politicians, even unexpected, like Nikolai Ivanovich Ryzhkov, the last head of the Soviet government, commented on the report quite calmly. Since he, in general, proceeded largely from the fact that comments and responses should be much more interesting than the product itself, in which, it seems to me, there were no big sensations.

-But still you put Dmitry Medvedev in the first place, and this surprised many. What arguments did you give in favor of such a high position in the ranking of successors?

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- Probably, to critics that Medvedev is in the rating in the first place should address the question: who would they see in such a rating in the first place? If they consider such a rating theoretically possible. In our opinion, Dmitry Medvedev partly overcame the reputational political blows that he received in the first half of the year, he returned to public activity, the fall of his rating stopped. The symbolic video frames of Putin and Medvedev appeared, designed to show that everything is good in the former tandem. And naturally, a script in which you can not change anything is often quite likely and possible. In this case, the plus of such a scenario for Vladimir Putin would be that Medvedev remains man number two in today's realities, that he is faithful to what was said in 2011, he refuses serious sharahahi, it is difficult to break the incriminations. But in such a scenario, of course, there are also disadvantages. Because after all, the fact that the political elite did not consolidate on the side of Dmitry Medvedev, in his defense, did not take the attack on Medvedev as an attack on the reputation of the authorities as a whole. And the authorities, of course, suffered noticeable reputational damages, this is a fairly alarming sign. If there is a desire for some kind of rebooting in any direction, more rigid or softer, probably, the presence of Dmitry Medvedev in this position, number two, it would not be very logical. Although Medvedev himself in recent years showed that he, in fact, is ready to be a face and a symbol of quite a variety of courses.

The option with the succession of Shoiga can be imagined in the case of forced transit of power

- But for sure, the skepticism also caused your critics in the first five people such as Sergey Shoigu and Valentina Matvienko. Still, these are politicians of the age level of the current president Vladimir Putin. Why were they on this list?

- In the first three, there is probably a consensus, although some believe that Alexei Dyumin, the governor of the Tula region, is set too high. But again, the question is, whom would others put the third? And I was interested in hearing responses. As for the candidates outside the first three, it is natural that there may be fluctuations and doubts around each of them. The Shoigu success option can be imagined only in the case of an accelerated, forced transit of power or some very serious maneuver. Because, despite the fact that Sergei Shoigu is still a well-known, popular figure with great political, managerial experience, the history of Putin’s relationship and Shoigu was not always even, in the zero years there were elements, if not jealousy, then the reduction of the media presence of Shoigu in the television broadcasts beyond the framework of election campaigns. Therefore, in fact, the arrival of Shoigu to the position of the Minister of Defense in 2013 seemed unexpected to many. Plus, Shoigu does not completely owe his political career only to Vladimir Putin, and there are not very many such politicians in Russia. Therefore, in the case of some emergency, forced transit, Shoigu would be a figure understandable to the Russian voter. Although, probably, not to the Russian establishment, where he is still perceived as the leader of one of the clans, and not such a consensus figure. And a set of conflicts and claims around Shoigu also exists. But the voters, at least, this figure would have caused, perhaps, there are fewer questions than the character of the same Dmitry Medvedev with his reputation holes that arose. As for Valentina Matvienko, nominally this is a very high person, number three in a formal handbag. Interestingly, Matvienko has great experience, great ties, with a high degree of autonomy. And if you look at its public statements in recent years, they, as a rule, sounded with a completely special intonation and did not always look like such a solidarization with radical rhetoric, a radical course that was declared and implemented in practice. And in this case, this is the sincere position of Valentina Matvienko and the understanding of how a public politician should behave, and not just some element of manipulation. Matvienko belongs to the category of persons capable of behaving, emphasized without paying attention to contexts and limiters - like Elvira Nabiullina or Tatyana Golikova. Referes, having obvious managerial experience, fame. She was not too pushed in the struggle, which periodically arises inside the highest echelons of power. But to say that Matvienko is prepared in successors would be an exaggeration. This option is also a scenario of such not obvious maneuver or transit, because there is also an age factor there, there is, perhaps, excess ability to be autonomous in modern political realities. And not everyone will be fully clear.

- Putin came to power quite unexpectedly. Failed the famous politician suddenly turned out to be the prime minister, then the president, a whole information campaign worked for him. You did not have a temptation to put Alexei Dyumin in the first place, precisely on the basis of the experience of 17 years ago?

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- In order to put Alexei Dyumin at the head of the rating, I would have to absolutize the historical experience, and proceed from the fact that history is always repeated, even in details. As they say in a famous joke: “What's new in newspapers? Yes, all the same old stories, every time with new people.” Vladimir Putin is a person who seeks to not repeat and not be predictable. Alexey Dyumin is noticeable as the governor of the Tula region, but still the feeling that he was being prepared for some serious jerk. Yes, Dyumin turned out to be more promising, perhaps more cleared of possible scandals and conflicts in comparison with that large three security forces who were advanced to the posts of governors. The expectations that Dyumin is prepared for personnel growth are created, at least they are not disavowed or refuted. But we do not observe some serious acceleration of dynamics around Dyumin, ”concludes Mikhail Vinogradov.

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  Andrey Sharogradsky

  International Radio Offer Freedom. Author and host of the information and analytical digest, podcast "Time of Freedom"