Is the sanitation of "discovery" is a banking crisis?

Experts explain why there will be no "domino effect" in the financial market "

On August 29, the Central Bank of Russia announced a reorganization in the banking group "Otkritie" and at the same time became its largest owner. The Central Bank said that the bank would continue to work as usual, but the sanitation of such a large financial organization is still stress for the entire banking sector. "Medusa" asked the financiers to tell if the domino effect will be on the Russian market and how correctly the Central Bank entered.

Natalia Orlova

Chief Economist, Head of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis of Alfa-Bank

There is no question of a banking crisis, crises of previous years happened when the Central Bank did not have a developed refinancing system and, if some bank had problems, then solve these problems-to support it or not to support-other banks were forced. With the current system, the regulator has much more tools to support the bank that is experiencing liquidity problems.

At the peak, in 2014, the volume of refinancing of the Central Bank in total reached nine trillion rubles. Now banks owe the Central Bank a little more than one trillion, so it has a large reserve of unequald support.

If you can imagine a script for a certain banking crisis, then in this case the Central Bank will simply expand the provision of liquidity and support banks.

Why is the support of the Central Bank so fundamental? Previously, when he did not provide support, banks could become victims of liquidity crisis, that is, they began to experience problems, lost customers, capital and became bankrupt. Now the risk of such a scenario is neutralized by the Central Bank-it is difficult to imagine a collapse of some bank due to liquidity problems. The problems that banks are experiencing today are structural.

As a representative of a competing bank, I can’t advise anything to customers of “discovery”.

Bogdan Zvarich

Senior analyst IR Frida Finance

I will not say that a full banking crisis has come. The problem is in a particular bank, and not in the entire banking system. The rest of the banks feel quite good. We have recently been improving the economic situation, banks have begun to show very good results, and many managed to move away from the problematic line - where the lack of liquidity begins, and the banks have the opportunity to fulfill their obligations to customers. Problems in a particular bank led to this necessary step from the Central Bank. The bank is large enough, and in order to prevent the deterioration of the situation in it, and he could pull some other banks along with himself, it was decided that the Central Bank would become the main shareholder and would support this bank. For ordinary mortals, this means that their money is currently in the right hands - in the hands of the Central Bank, which will monitor the state of the “opening”. You do not have to be afraid for your funds, because this is a strong guarantee.

The Central Bank will normalize the operation of the “opening”, and according to the results of this work, when the bank again becomes working and without the support of the Central Bank, I think it can be sold to large shareholders or the consortium of shareholders.

Other, mainly small banks that have a risky policy of placing funds, in connection with which they have formed a high amount of delays on loans, have problems. They may have serious problems. In the future, this can lead to the fact that the banks will revoke a license. I do not think that this will affect large players, I think the decision of the Central Bank even normalizes the situation in the banking sector.

The Central Bank said that the “discovery” will fully fulfill its obligations, it has strong support in the form of a large shareholder, with serious financial resources in order to hold the bank in normal working condition. Therefore, the release of the Central Bank says that the “discovery” will fulfill all its obligations to customers.

Alexander Danilov

FITCH Rating Agency Analyst

Judging by the statistics for July, so far this is an absolutely isolated case. Of course, there were certain speculations, but the situation with the “opening” did not seem to cause any visible excitement, and this did not spread to other banks.

In general, we can say that the bank was saved - and did everything in the most mild form. An ordinary depositors can exhale - they can calmly continue using their money, as the Central Bank guaranteed their safety and continuation of the bank in normal mode. The situation with professional investors in subordinated bonds has not yet been specified, but this will not affect ordinary investors.

Garevin Tosunyan

Head of the Association of Russian Banks

From the sanitation of the “discovery” we can conclude that the Central Bank relied on to help banks in difficult situations and ensure stability. Including, the Central Bank showed that the tools such as the Consolidation of the Banking Sector are ready to use such tools ( this organization created by the Central Bank will become an investor of “Otkritie” - approx. Medusa ), which appeared at his disposal recently. Whether this practice will spread to other banks in such situations, only the Central Bank can say.

I would personally want even in extreme cases to be a punishment for some persons in the leadership or among the owners who are guilty of the difficulties of a particular bank, but the Central Bank would support this bank with state funds-as an institution-to achieve stability. There is an example of other countries, for example, France, where at one time very many banks were nationalized, but as soon as the situation in them returned to normal, they turned into private hands. The private sector bought them with pleasure.

All the charm in such a situation with the “discovery” is that customers now do not need to worry about anything. You can continue to work calmly with the bank, everything else is no longer their headache. No need to run and take money, because it is very dangerous for the market. It is very dangerous when people think that you can safely store money in only two or three banks, and in other cases you need to constantly shake with them and live like on a powder barrel. This does not allow the market to work normally. Unfortunately, in our country in recent years, this is exactly the situation.

Recorded Sasha Sulim and Pavel Merzlikin