Secret named "West-2017"

On the territory of Russia and Belarus, large-scale military exercises "West-2017" began

Belarusian-Russian teachings "Slavic Brotherhood-2017". Photo: mil.ru

More than 12 thousand people, aviation, military equipment and warships participate in the exercises. And although the military from the very beginning emphasized that the maneuvers are purely defensive in nature and are not directed against other countries, the Western neighbors did not hide their anxiety.

Three aggressive states - Veinnia, Vesbaria and Lubeny (in them you can easily recognize NATO members - Poland, Latvia and Lithuania) - united into the coalition in order to achieve a split between Russia and Belarus and the change of power in Minsk. In addition, Wemicoria (Poland) is overcome by the desire to attach to itself the western regions of Belarus, for which separatist sentiments are inflated there. In order to achieve their insidious goals, Western neighbors send illegal armed groups and sabotage groups to Belarusian territory. The United Regional Group of the Armed Forces of Belarus and Russia is conducting a successful struggle with them: within three days it manages to isolate the enemy forces of the enemy forces and ensure the cover of important state and military facilities. But the insidious enemy does not stop. Having suffered a defeat in subversive actions, he is decided by direct aggression. But he will be inevitable to defeat - within a few days.

That is how, if you summarize the fragmentary data, the script of the strategic teachings of the West-2017 looks like-they will be held from September 14 to 20 and have already managed to become one of the main topics on the pages of the European press and in the lips of European politicians.

One -way ticket

For the entire post -Soviet period, such military games will take place for the fourth time. And for the first time - after the crisis erupted in Ukraine. For this reason, maneuvers cause serious concern of neighboring states. For the transfer of the Russian contingent to the area of exercises, an unprecedented number of railway cars is involved - over 4 thousand; Thousands of units of military equipment will be located directly on the borders of adjacent NATO member states-Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.

“This, apparently, is working out the offensive actions against NATO specifically - both against the Baltic countries and, apparently, Poland. Yes, this is intelligence data - both ours and allies, ”said the Minister of Defense of Lithuania Raimundas Karoblis. Kyiv claims that the maneuvers will become a prelude to a new invasion of Ukraine. The commander of the US Ground Forces in Europe, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges also expresses concern: “This is the Trojan Horse. They say: “We simply conduct exercises,” and then suddenly they will transfer all these people and strength in a different direction. ” “I think these military exercises of Russia force us to be prepared for some kind of military aggression, the Western community should be prepared for any development of events,” says Kurt Walker, special representative of the US President in Ukraine.

“This is the Trojan horse. They say: “We simply conduct exercises”, and then suddenly they will transfer all these people and strength in a different direction. ”

Moscow, on the contrary, insists that the upcoming maneuvers do not pose any threat. The total number of personnel and military equipment that will take part in the “West-2017” exercises does not exceed the level “subject to compulsory observation of certain types of military activities established by the Vienna document of 2011,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said. According to the foreign ministry, it is planned to attract up to 12,700 military personnel to the exercises: 7200 people from Belarus, 5,500 people from Russia, of which about 3,000 people in Belarusian territory. Also, about 70 aircraft and helicopters will be involved in the exercises, up to 680 units of military equipment, including about 250 tanks, about 200 guns, reactive systems of salvo fire and mortars, up to 10 ships. “This is very far from those numbers that are thrown into the media in connection with the upcoming exercises,” the Russian Foreign Ministry assured. And they on duty stated that the “fan of the hype” was designed to justify the costs of building up NATO military activity in Poland and the Baltic countries. True, on Smolenskaya Square they forgot (as they should be by the genus of activity) to add: building the military activity of the North Atlantic Alliance occurred as a result of the annexation of Crimea and the war untied in the Donbass.

Parlays for the practical actions of the troops (forces) during the teachings of the West-2017.
Photo: "Red Star"

Sunny numbers

The concern of the West would really look far-fetched if Moscow reported on the scale of the exercises corresponded to reality-such forces are clearly not enough to conduct any serious military operation. And the declared territory of the maneuvers is also too limited to correspond to the declared “strategic” level of exercises. According to the Belarusian Minister of Defense of Lieutenant General Andrei Ravkov, the maneuvers will be held at six training grounds: Lepelsky, Borisovsky, Losvido, Osipovichsky, at the Air Force training grounds and the air defense forces Ruzhansky and Domanovsky, as well as “on one area of the republic near the village of Dretun”. And at a briefing on August 30, the Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Alexander Fomin said that three landfills will be involved in Russia: Pravdinsky (Kaliningrad region), Strugi Red (Pskov Region) and Luzhsky (Leningrad Region). Here we can recall that, for example, in the exercises of the Caucasus-2016 and Center-2015, as reported by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, over 100 thousand soldiers and officers were involved.

However, in another interview, the same General Raskov said: "The scope of this teaching is very large - from the Kola direction in the Arctic zone and ending with Belarus." Obviously, for action in such a space officially declared 13 thousand military personnel will be not enough. What formations will participate in maneuvers - there are no refinements from our diplomats and the military in this regard. However, in the Russian military press, data periodically appear that make them doubt in official statistics. For example, we read in the Red Star: to participate in the West-2017, the loading of the 15th “peacekeeping” brigade, which is deployed in Samara (this is about 3 thousand soldiers and officers) began. Information was also held about the large-scale teaching of the rear services already under the “West-2017” (it took place near St. Petersburg and in Belarus), in which about 3 thousand military personnel were involved. It is significant that within the framework of these "rear" exercises, planting combat and transport aircraft on the road highway was developed. The commander of the Baltic Fleet, Vice Admiral Alexander Nosatov, said that the entire Baltic Fleet will take part in the “West-2017” exercises: “These are almost all units of the sea, land and aviation components of the fleet.” And the deputy minister of defense Fomin said that units of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Russian Guard, the FSB and the Ministry of Emergencies will be involved in maneuvers.

It directly follows from all this: much more forces and funds will be attracted to the maneuvers than Moscow officially states.

The same General Raskov in another interview said: "The scope of this teaching is very large - from the Kola direction in the Arctic zone and ending with Belarus." It is obvious that for actions in such a space officially declared 13 thousand military personnel will not be enough

Manipulators with experience

Why the figure is declared 13 thousand - a separate question. The Vienna document of the 2011 OSCE on measures to strengthen trust and security, as you know, establishes quantitative restrictions on the deployment of ordinary armed forces at the European Theater as part of military exercises. Another thing is sudden inspections, inspections of combat readiness. Here you can attract not 13, but at least 40 thousand military personnel, the Vienna document does not prohibit this. And the Russian General Staff has already learned to use this loophole. So, in February 2014, the Kremlin, under the guise of a sudden audit, concentrated troops on the Ukrainian border, which ensured the annexation of Crimea and the creation of a base for warfare in the Donbass. Again, under the cover of a sudden audit that grew into the exercises, the Russian General Staff then brought the troops to the regions of concentration. Experts believe that Moscow can apply a similar technique now. “In early September, you can expect an announcement of a sudden verification of troops, which, after a short pause, will go to West-2017,” suggests the famous Swedish researcher Jorgen Elfwing. Apparently, the NATO military, who should be guided by the worst scenarios, is now afraid of the same development of events. After all, unpredictability is a corporate dish of the Kremlin.

“In early September, you can expect an announcement of a sudden check of troops, which after a short pause will go to the West-2017

Another corporate dish is the use of military force to demonstrate their own displeasure by the actions of the Western "counter -partners". Let us recall how at the beginning of 2015, after the refusal of Western leaders to go to Astana for negotiations with Putin in Ukraine, an attack on Debaltseve almost immediately began. Now, at first glance, nothing resembles the time before the start of hostilities, when interstate contradictions are aggravated to the limit, and the State Propaganda prepares the people for the inevitability of war. However, who can vouch that Vladimir Putin was not deadly offended, for example, due to Washington’s intention to start supplying the so-called “lethal” weapons to Ukraine, first of all, anti-tank complexes. And certainly it is impossible to be sure that the helpful military advisers of the president will not offer him to hit earlier, before the Javelin complexes will appear with the enemy? After all, someone in love with Putin so loved the theory that Americans could replace the interceptors of the missile defense system, deployed in Romania, with winged missiles with nuclear warheads ...

Who can vouch that Vladimir Putin was not deadly offended, for example, due to Washington’s intention to start supplying the so-called “lethal” weapons to Ukraine, primarily anti-tank complexes

What is hidden

However, it is easy to dispel fears about upcoming maneuvers, which the domestic Foreign Ministry calls it “far -fetched”. It is enough to ensure genuine transparency during exercises, that is, to provide access to the West-2017 international observers. I must say that both Moscow and Minsk have recently confidently guaranteed the openness of the exercises. “In the deadlines established by international treaties, our partners will receive more detailed information about this teaching both through diplomatic channels and through the media. The event will be able to visit international observers and journalists, ”promised Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu. “We invite everyone to observe the exercises. Let them come and observe them, ”Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko echoed him.

The reality was slightly different. According to the military department of Belarus, representatives of only seven countries were invited to exercises: Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Sweden and Norway. Representatives of the military-diplomatic corps accredited at the Ministry of Defense, as well as international organizations-the UN, OSCE, NATO, CSTO, CIS and the International Red Cross Committee accredited at the Ministry of Defense. But the main thing, as you know, is hidden in details. So, according to the Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg, the Alliance received from the Belarusian authorities an invitation to send two experts to observe the exercises for five “guest days”, while the invitation came for only one such day from Russia. Of course, no serious observation is possible in this way.

If you still proceed from the fact that Moscow is not going to attack Ukraine and occupy Belarus (both is unlikely), then what does it hide in this case? A secret carefully protected from the West, most likely, is not at all a high combat readiness of shock formations, but low. Indeed, in the Russian army, it is determined by the degree of staffing of the troops. And although Russian generals regularly report the creation of new formations, the total number of armed forces is practically not growing. It turns out that the created divisions are unimportant, which means that he is heavenly. This should be hidden from attentive foreign observers ...

The secret carefully protected from the West is most likely not at all the high combat readiness of Russian shock formations, but low