Recognize Russia-aggressor

The bill on the reintegration of Donbass is almost ready for consideration in the Verkhovna Rada. In this document, Russia for the first time at the legislative level can be defined as “agressor” and “occupier”. This law may be one of the key, together with the pension and medical reforms in the new Ukrainian political season that starts in early September.

The administration of the Ukrainian president announced the development of the bill "On the features of the state policy to restore sovereignty over the temporarily occupied territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine" back in mid -June. This happened a few days before the meeting of Petro Poroshenko with US President Donald Trump in Washington. The development of the National Security and Defense of Ukraine (SNBOU) is the development of the actually new Donbass strategy. According to SNBOU, such a document is necessary "for a clear determination of the legal status of uncontrolled territories with a targeted establishment for the prospect of their reintegration, as well as the formation of a new legal regime of warfare, a new, more coordinated structure of military and socio-economic processes in the conflict zone."

In July, some media reported a variant of this bill, which, in particular, states that "the Russian Federation carries out armed aggression against Ukraine and the temporary occupation of parts of its territory using its armed forces." Voting in parliament on this document was expected even before the summer deputy holidays, but at the last moment, Poroshenko surrounded that the partners of Kyiv in the "Norman format" should get acquainted with him. As a result, the consideration was postponed in the fall.

Speaking the day before on the air of the 5th Channel, the representative of the President of Ukraine in the Verkhovna Rada, Irina Lutsenko, said that the document is ready by 99%, and in it, for the first time at the legislative level in Ukraine, it will be defined as a "aggressor country". Prior to this, the parliament had already called the Russian Federation an aggressor, in its resolution of January 27, 2015. What will mean the definition of the Russian Federation by the "aggressor" and "occupier" in the Law on the reintegration of Donbass?

About three thousand claims living in the Ordlo for the actions of the Ukrainian authorities have already been filed in international courts

“Despite the fact that this definition (aggressor country) has already been used in relation to Russia adopted by the Rada, but indeed, it can be recorded for the first time at the legislative level,” says Ruslan Bortnik , director of the Ukrainian Institute for Policy Analysis and Management. -From a practical point of view, this will mean, firstly, the unacceptability of the nomination of any legal claims to Ukraine by citizens living in the territories of individual regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions (Ordlo) in case of violation of their rights.

According to some reports, about three thousand lawsuits living in the Ordlo for the actions of the Ukrainian authorities and the military have already been filed in the international courts, including the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg. Their claims are associated with the death of relatives, damage to houses, and property loss. The recognition of these territories by the aggressor country will mean that Ukraine has the responsibility for violation of human rights and freedoms in these territories to the aggressor country, that is, to the Russian Federation.

The official recognition of the Ukrainian of the Russian Federation "aggressor" will probably strengthen the position of Kyiv

Secondly, perhaps this will strengthen the position of Kyiv in international courts. Let me remind you that one of the lawsuits of Ukraine against Russia in the International Court in The Hague concerns a violation of the two conventions: on the financing of terrorism and racial discrimination. The lawsuit is related to the role of the Kremlin in an armed conflict in the Donbass and the actions of the Russian authorities in the annexed Crimea. And the official recognition of the Russian Federation by the "aggressor" will probably strengthen the position of Kyiv; Thirdly, this may have political consequences. This decision of the Rada will correspond to the views of a significant part of Ukrainians. It can also be said that this is a certain political flirting with a patriotic part of society, with the military at the front in the Donbass, and the acceptance of the law with such formulations will most likely signal that Ukraine is on the threshold of any extraordinary elections.

Instead of that, the head of the board of the Ukrainian politics Fund, Kostya Bondarenko, notes that the recognition by the deputies of Russia by the "aggressor" and "occupier" will not have any international consequences.

In the case of the adoption of the law in the current form, Ukraine will not be able to fulfill the obligations undertaken by the Minsk agreements

-The introduction to Ukrainian legislation The wording "Russia-Agressor" will not lead to the automatic emergence of the same definition regarding our northern neighbor and in international acts. In this situation, the law on the reintegration of Donbass will actually be used only within the country, it will not lead to strengthening international sanctions against Russia. In addition, in the case of the adoption of the law in the current form, Ukraine will not be able to fulfill the obligations undertaken by the Minsk agreements, ”the political scientist is convinced.

Ukrainian military in the ATO zone, 2017

As for the new format of the military operation (instead of almost 3.5 years of anti -terrorism operation) in the conflict zone and the introduction of a new military management there, the opinions of experts are also diverged here.

- This law will allow martial law in the region. Today he needs power, since, on the one hand, this will be an argument in international negotiations: Kyiv, for example, will be able to say that he refused the ATO, and this was also required in Moscow. And after concessions, the Kremlin should go. On the other hand, the document will redirect the military operation from the Security Service of Ukraine directly to the military, in which the operation will lead the operation, the general of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is appointed by the Head of State, says Bortnik.

However, as Bondarenko says, the issue of fixation in the “martial law” bill has not yet been finally resolved, and the ATO has long been directed only formally, and all the military operations are coordinated by the General Staff and the military, and not the bushniki play the main role there. In addition, according to the laws and the Constitution of Ukraine, martial law cannot be declared on a separate part of the country.

Paris and Berlin on the eve of the presidents of Ukraine and Russia Petro Poroshenko and Vladimir Putin were called to observe the ceasefire in the Donbass, which was approved last week at negotiations in Minsk and was called the "school truce." Reproaches also sound to the Ukrainian military, which respond fire. Are such claims fair? And does this statement mean that France and Germany recognize Russia to the conflict?

- As such, they did not recognize Russia side of the conflict. They still consider the Russian Federation a party that affects the situation in the Donbass, ”continues Bondarenko’s bone. - From the very beginning of the Minsk process, Moscow was entitled that it could affect the so -called “DPR” and “LPR” and that Russia actually took on such obligations to influence the leaders of the separatists - Zakharchenko, Plotnitsky. As for a specific statement, it is not the first time that it is also said about the role of Ukraine. Representatives of international organizations, OSCE observers operating in the region, human rights organizations constantly say that there are no right and guilty, there are parties that from time to time violate the truce - the Ukrainian side, then the side of the self -proclaimed "republics". And not always shelling goes only in response, unfortunately.

There is a "hot war, not a frozen conflict"

A special representative of the United States on Ukraine Kurt Walker last week after the Minsk meeting with the assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Vladislav Surkov said in an interview with the Rain television channel that in order to return the territories of Donbass to Ukraine, Russian troops must be withdrawn from there. And last month, after visiting the East of Ukraine, he said that there was a "hot war, not frozen conflict."

Is it possible to say that Washington is now becoming a full -fledged participant in the negotiations on the Donbass?

“Not yet,” says political analyst Bondarenko. - The USA could become a full -fledged participant in the United States after joining the Minsk or Norman format. We can say that now Washington is trying to appear as a kind of arbitration judge. Moreover, while in Kyiv, Volker said that the problem of Donbass is not only the problem of Ukraine, but all of Europe. Repeatedly and Trump said that Europe needs to more actively intervene in this process. The United States themselves are in no hurry to join the negotiations in the role of a full -fledged participant. Although, I think that there would be much more benefit if instead of Germany and France in negotiations with Ukraine and the Russian Federation it was the United States who took part in Ukraine, since today there are much more interests in Ukraine than the interests of France and Germany.