Landing by Ilon Mask

American entrepreneur, founder of the SpaceX missile building, Ilon Musk shared updated plans. There are several differences from previously voiced, namely: rejection of promising technologies, the lack of large ambitions and the transfer of the deadlines for the possible flight to Mars.

Ilon Musk, who created the company SpaceX in 2002 and brought it 15 years later to the leaders of commercial rocket science, became famous for his Martian aspirations. Each technology developed in SpaceX is positioned as a step to the multiplap future. Based on state support and state orders, the company was able to develop a medium -sized Falcon 9 missile and Dragon freight spacecraft. Next in line is the manned modification of the ship, also ordered by the State Agency NASA.

Unlike most American companies working on state orders, SpaceX did not stop there and continued to invest in new developments. The first successful investment was the modernization of the Falcon 9 missile from average to heavy. After that, SpaceX could not only compete in the domestic market of the United States with the ATlas V of the ULA concern, but also to bring its product to the international market.

There began a strict fight against competitors in the person of the European Arianespace with the Arian 5 missile and the American International Launch Services (hereinafter ILS), which offers the services of Roscosmos and the State Customs Service of the State Customs Service. M.V. Khrunicheva with the rocket "Proton-M". The heavy Falcon 9 turned out to be a very successful project: he greatly overtook Atlas v and Arian 5, however, significantly loses to them in reliability; But the Proton-M turned out to be a lighter opponent: it is a little more expensive and represents a greater risk for customers. Thanks to a series of high-profile accidents with the participation of Proton-M, organizational problems at the GKNPC named after Khrunichev, as well as the political conjuncture, SpaceX was able to almost completely lure ILS customers and become one of the leaders of the space launches market in 10 years.

Despite success, SpaceX was not satisfied with the result. Continuing investments in technological development bear fruit.

The next serious technological achievement of SpaceX is the return of the first steps of heavy missiles after the implementation of orbital launches. The solution allows you to reduce the cost of withdrawing spacecraft to the orbit of spacecraft and ships, which allows you to increase income from state and private orders and makes it possible to dump, inaccessible to competitors.

A competent marketing campaign - the idea of ​​reusable missiles necessary for flying to Mars, attracted customers who are ready to pay for risky secondary launches with a serious payload. A noble motive to help achieve Mars overpowering the loss of a satellite loss. At the same time, the vast majority of customers of missile launches are interested exclusively in near -Earth orbit. In the future, of course, it is easier to get to the reusable missiles and to Mars, but so far the mastered technology helps the mask to succeed in quite earthly business without encroaching on the red planet.

What to bring to orbit?

Although the advantages of reusable are obvious, the problem that stops the experiments of the predecessors of Ilon Mask is loomed ahead - the depletion of the market. Roughly speaking, creating 10 missiles capable of making 10 launches each, we will launch all the satellites that are produced on the ground, and the rocket plant will have to stand idle in anticipation of a new job. Here I am a little exaggerated, but, indeed, the modern needs of mankind in space are satisfied with less than a hundred annual launches from all cosmodromes.

The commercial launcher market is held on about 20 launches, which are also reduced: the satellites are becoming more reliable and work longer, so they need less and less. This is not stopped by Ilona Mask, which is seriously thinking about creating new markets - multi -seatnik groups and space tourism.

Together with Google and a number of SpaceX venture companies, it is invested in the development of a network of global satellite Internet, which will require the withdrawal of several thousand (!) Near Earth satellites to low orbit. Such work will allow for a long time to load rocket -building power; For example, a competing Oneweb project has already pretended 20 “unions” with Roscosmos.

Near Earth tourism is not attracted yet, although in the presence of a demand SpaceX will surely be able to satisfy it. The company is ready to carry people at once to the near -moon orbit. To this end, the Dragon spacecraft is originally developed with the possibility of returning to Earth from the second cosmic speed. This is the next investment of the company that no one ordered, because NASA asked for a near -Earth ship.

It will be possible to launch Dragon to the moon using the next development of SpaceX - the super -heavy Falcon Heavy missile. This missile is a built Falcon 9, that is, it allows you to use reusable blocks left from single launches. In the Soviet tradition, missiles were able to lift over 100 tons in a low near -earth orbit, but the world has been living with missiles that can lift no more than 30 tons there, so now even 50 tons seem “over”.

Today, Falcon Heavy does not have a load in demand by NASA, or Pentagon, or commercial market. Elon Musk bases its expectations on cluster launches on several satellites, but you need to look for a suitable pair for a more and more compressed market. It is then that lunar tourism comes to the rescue. Having cheap reusable components for a rocket and a spaceship created according to the state order (and the ships are also expected reusable), SpaceX will be able to name the price acceptable for everyone who wants to repeat the Apollo 8 feat.

Here, from SpaceX achievements, we go to plans and projects.

Plans for the near future

The start of Falcon Heavy has been constantly delayed since 2014. Now they promise that this will happen in the fall of 2017 - we will wait. The manned ship created for NASA is also expected and should fly only in 2018. The plans voiced by Elon Mask were other, already Martian projects.

Red Dragon, an unmanned spacecraft launched by the Falcon Heavy rocket, was supposed to master a missile landing on the Red Planet. If successful, this would be the first multi -ton cargo, gently hung on Mars. So far, the most heavy product of human hands, which would gently reach the fourth planet, remains 900-kilogram Markhod Curiosity.

Rocket planting on solid soil was also designed for the near -Earth manned Dragon, although NASA quite satisfied the traditional lead in the Pacific. The Red Dragon launch was supposed to be “at your own expense” as a demonstration of the technology, at the same time, SpaceX unequivocally hinted NASA, which would gladly deliver some kind of scientific load to order.

Even more ambitious, rather even a fantastic project, presented by Ilon Musk a year ago, was ITS - Interplanetary Transport System. This is a missile system that can deliver up to 100 colonists with a load to Mars or provide manned flights through the solar system to Saturn's orbit.

Although each component of the proposed system does not contradict the laws of physics and, in principle, implement it, it would require resources that neither Spacex, nor NASA, nor anyone else on planet Earth. Despite the absence of the customer, even in the future, SpaceX began the implementation of the declared plans, starting with the tests of a giant composite fuel tank.

Akela missed?

Against the backdrop of technological and commercial successes, no, even completely unrealistic plans of Ilona Mask did not meet the rejection in the media or the near -social community. Therefore, when he announced unforeseen problems with Falcon Heavy, the rejection of Dragon reactive planting and completely from the Red Dragon project, the revision of plans towards reducing the ITS program, many perceived this as “Akela missed”.

The reason, of course, is not that Musk finally read the “missiles and people” of Boris Chertok to the head of the H1, and not that the “swindler” was exposed by the brave journalists of one missile power. More obvious reasons are in business.

A number of SpaceX investments have been successful, demanded by customers and are now bringing income: these are investments in a difficult modification of a rocket and reusability. Investments in Falcon Heavy were clearly more than expected with a rather low market interest. Red Dragon also looked like a Martian blessed mask only in the first approximation: his hopes are obvious to receive NASA orders for the study of Mars.

Today, the unresolved task of world cosmonautics is the delivery of Martian soil to the Earth, and for this the technology of planting a multi -toner would just be useful. But NASA has no budgets for this task: everything went to the MSL 2020 Mars -Road, the return of which is not assumed. In addition, NASA is not interested in leaving the JPL unit without work. On Earth, missile landing is also not in demand, so the rejection of it is obvious in favor of more promising SpaceX projects.

Review of the Interplanetary Transport System is also not surprising. The project will still not be implemented in the coming decade, so it will have to be reviewed regularly, taking into account the newly developed technologies and new materials.

The biggest intrigue for today is Falcon Heavy. Will it fly? Can SpaceX and turn this project into commercial success? In the meantime, Elon Musk expresses a careful hope that the rocket at least leaves the starting table: its repeated repair is definitely not included in the company's budget.

Vitaly Egorov,
Cosmonautics popularizer, employee of the Russian private
space company Dauria Aerospeis, author of the Zelenyikot blog
Photo from Wikimedia.org