Friendship apart

Why did Lukashenko and Putin never appear together on the maneuvers "West-2017"

Photo: Belta.by

On September 20, the joint strategic exercises of the West-2017 ended the armed forces of the Union State of Russia and Belarus. The main result of the action is not even a convincing victory of the united troops over the insidious Veineria, Variabaria and Lubenia, and the wedge of distrust driven by the Russian military in the already difficult relations of Moscow and Minsk.

Tanks move

On the morning of September 14, on the first day of the exercises, when Russian troops agreed by the script, weapons and equipment have already arrived in Belarusian territory, a message appeared on the website of the Russian Ministry of Defense: Moscow Region divisions of the 1st Guards Tank Army of the Western Military District (Zhi) were raised in alarm and advanced to training grounds for participation in the joint teaching of the West-2017.

The reason for the alarm was "Operational information on the discovery of illegal armed formation in the territory of one of the regions of the Union State."

As follows from the press service of the press service, the personnel with standard weapons and equipment arrived at the loading railway station in order to make a march in the appointed area in the territory of the Republic of Belarus during the day.

The news dumbfounded the Belarusian military: the ranks of the Ministry of Defense of the republic could not clearly explain to reporters that they were going to Belarus for tanks. They only said that this was some kind of mistake, and assured: all Russian military and equipment involved in the teaching (3,100 military personnel, 98 tanks, 104 military armored vehicles, 32 artillery systems and rocket laptops, 27 aircraft and helicopters) have already arrived. Only in the afternoon, the staff reassured: they say, yes, the tanks near Moscow will participate in exercises, but they are not sent to Belarus, but to Russian landfills.

The news of the 1st Guards Tank Army raised by the alarm of the 1st Guards Tank Army dawned on the Belarusian military: the ranks of the Ministry of Defense of the republic until the middle of the day could not clearly explain to reporters that they were going to Belarus for tanks

Meanwhile, the press releases that the first tank was advanced on September 14 to Belarus, at the time of preparation of the material for publication, still remained on the website of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation .

“It is not surprising that in the General Staff of Belarus there was a commotion, and in the administration of President Lukashenko, for sure, too. Therefore, no one could clearly comment on the situation for half a day, ”said Andrei Aksenov, an expert of the civil campaign of the civil campaign of the civil campaign“ Our House ”in a conversation with NT.

Apparently, Alexander Lukashenko perceived a misunderstanding with tanks as a personal insult. He planned with Vladimir Putin at the end of the maneuvers to visit the Russian military training ground, but changed his mind. On September 19, the press secretary of the Main Directorate of the Ideological Work of the Ministry of Defense of Belarus Vladimir Makarov said at a briefing that the 20th Lukashenko would observe the exercises at the Belorussian training ground in the company of the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergey Shoigu. However, there was no news about the participation of the head of the Russian military department.

Apparently, Alexander Lukashenko perceived a misunderstanding with tanks as a personal insult. He planned with Vladimir Putin at the end of the maneuvers to visit the Russian military training ground, but changed his mind

Summing up the results of the teachings on the Borisov’s results, the Old Man admitted that initially they really planned to observe the maneuvers together with Putin, but “in the course of the way they decided that it was necessary to cover the exercises more widely so that people saw the presidents and where they work.”

“We agreed that the main phase of the exercises here is in Belarus,” Lukashenko explained. “Large exercises take place in the Leningrad Region, there the Russian president will control and will observe in the north, and I am here in the center.”

*At the Luzhsky training ground during the main stage of the joint Russian-Belarusian strategic teachings "West-2017". *Photo: mil.ru

And yet the matter is different, Andrei Aksenov is sure. According to the expert, despite the numerous assurances in the eternal friendship and brotherhood of the two peoples, Lukashenko does not trust Putin and is afraid of him. And the presence of Russian tanks in the Belarusian territory clearly annoys him.

*Joint Russian-Belarusian strategic exercises "West-2017". *Photo: kremlin.ru

Veinthia loses, but wins

During the joint exercises of the West series, which are held every two years, as in the days of the USSR, large -scale military operations are being worked out during the interstate conflict in Eastern Europe, including using nuclear weapons. The script of 2017, according to the head of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus Oleg Belokonev, the Russian and Belarusian staff were developed based on the latest events in the countries of the Middle East and Europe.

According to this legend, the “northern”-Russia and Belarus-and “Western”-the Union of the fictional countries of Varia and Lubenia, opposed to each other, in which Poland and Lithuania are easily guessed (just look at the map), as well as Veineria (this script authors located in the north-west of Belarus). With the support of Vesbariya and Lubenia, Vehnoria decided to attack the peace-loving union state of Russia and Belarus ( see also “Secrets named“ West-2017 ” .

Firstly, the staff officers did not come up with anything better how to cut off a piece of the country and declare it the enemy of the rest of Belarus. Secondly, for some reason this piece coincided with the territory, where people speak mainly in Belarusian, there are more Catholics than the Orthodox, and Lukashenko receives the least votes in the elections

Over the past two decades, little in Belarus has caused such a surge of public indignation in Belarus as this fiction. Firstly, the staff officers did not come up with anything better how to cut off a piece of the country and declare it the enemy of the rest of Belarus. Secondly, for some reason this piece coincided with the territory, where people speak mainly in Belarusian, there are more Catholics than the Orthodox, and Lukashenko receives the least votes in the elections. Finally, within the borders of the Weyshnoria was the region of compact residence of the Polish national minority.

Coat of arms of the Weisory.
Photo: Person.org.ua

During the social networks, indignation is often sublimeing into a mockery. The non -existent Weyshoria instantly healed her own life. Literally in a day, Belarusian Internet users created the country's page on Wikipedia, invented its coat of arms, flag and anthem, history and government, developed the “official” sites of the Veisnore state bodies and even began to distribute the citizenship of the virtual state.

“Weilless is a dream of a normal country. This is all the good things that are not in Belarus now, ”the Belarusian political scientist Pavel Usov explained the sudden popularity of the educational enemy.

Ruski, Idzi Dadoma*!

Since the end of last year, Belarusian political scientists and military experts warned that at the end of the autumn exercise, Russia could find some excuse so as not to withdraw troops and weapons from the territory of Belarus. As a result, the independence of the country, already quite conditional, will actually be canceled.

* Ruskі, Idzi Dadom (Bel.) - Russian, go home.

Will these forecasts come true? We will have to wait for an answer before the end of the month: even before the start of the exercises, the Belarusian General Staff announced, the Russian military will leave the country by September 30. However, most experts believe that there is nothing to be afraid of.

The non -existent Weyshoria instantly healed her own life. Just a day, Belarusian Internet users created the country's page on Wikipedia, invented its coat of arms, flag and hymn, history and government, developed the “official” sites of the Veisnore state bodies and even began to distribute the citizenship of the virtual state

“I think the Russian troops will still return to their bases. But not because the Kremlin is so peaceful, ”says Andrei Aksyonov. “The fact is that all 25 years after the collapse of the USSR, not a single military maneuvers in the post-Soviet space, even the West 2009, when they actually rehearsed the attack on Poland and a nuclear blow to Warsaw, did not cause such a sharply negative reaction of the international community.”

The reaction to the exercises and within the country was ambiguous. The West-2017 was even able to rally the Belarusian democratic opposition, which no one has succeeded in the last two decades. Yesterday's political opponents, who, with their straightforwards, had driven themselves to a real political ghetto, united the fear of the fact that Belarus would finally lose independence.

“In Belarus, there are practically no those who would be Russian soldiers on our land,” said Andrey Porotnikov, head of the Belrus Security Blog analytical project in a conversation with NT. - After aggression against Ukraine, confidence in Russia in Belarus is largely destroyed. Obviously, the Kremlin’s policy is difficult to predict, and this is worried. Against this background, the presence of even a small number of Russian military is perceived extremely painfully. ”

“In Belarus, there are practically no those who would be glad to Russian soldiers on our land. After aggression against Ukraine, confidence in Russia in Belarus is largely destroyed "

According to Porotnikov, the ordinary Belarusians and the authorities are afraid that the country can be drawn into the confrontation of Russia and the West, so we can talk about the informal consensus of official Minsk and the opposition about the fact that the expansion of the Russian military presence in Belarus cannot be allowed. “But the authorities have to demonstrate loyalty to the Kremlin, and the opposition acts in its paradigm, which is largely linked with moods in Warsaw or Kyiv,” the expert states.

In such an atmosphere, contrary to the usual, in Belarus, they did not prohibit celebrating the unofficial day of Belarusian military glory on September 8 **. Oppositionists fully took advantage of the unspoken permission of the authorities and held two street actions against the "Russian invaders" - however, quite few.

** On September 8, 1514, the 30,000th army of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, the basis of which was the Belarusians, had a head to defeat the 80,000th Moscow army near Orsha.

Strategic inequality

Apparently, even if Russia leads its military from Belarus on time, as agreed, relations between Minsk and Moscow will be cool for a long time. As one high -ranking Belarusian official shared with strict anonymity, there was a feeling that during the exercises the Russian side sought in every possible way to emphasize the non -mainness of its Belarusian satellite, which assumes the role of a bridgehead for a possible attack in the future - even to Ukraine, even to the Baltic countries, even for Poland.

“Teachings are only one of the tools to prevent Belarus from normalizing relations with the West, to aggravate relations with Ukraine and thereby fix our country in the“ sphere of privileged interests of Russia, ”as they call it in Moscow,” agrees Andrei Porotnikov.

"Teachings are only one of the tools to prevent Belarus from normalizing relations with the West"

For example, according to him, on the very first day of maneuvers, Moscow defiantly transferred three airborne divisions to the western borders, and the equipment was landed near the borders with Latvia and Estonia. “In Russia, they directly say that all this happens within the framework of the West-2017. But 12,700 military personnel on both sides take part in the exercises, and here only three divisions of the Airborne Forces are 24 thousand people. Yes, this happens in the territory of the Russian Federation, but in general it is perceived as a single event. And Belarus at the same time looks like a country completely non -independent in issues of regional security, ”Rednikov summarizes.