Vladimir Bekish: to the British Seas

An impressive and decisive victory. The war is almost over. Deir ez-Zor is released. Russian aerospace forces at the top of success. Hooray, comrades! What suddenly happened there, in Syria? Why could the Syrian troops do nothing with the enemy, and not only under Deir ez-Zoro, and suddenly a grand success and victory? Actually, there are only three most important issues in this whole story:

1. Why suddenly, after a sluggish ineffective war in Syria, is such a deafening success?

2. What did the Russian army achieve in its Syrian campaign?

3. What will happen next?

The military success, which Minister Shoigu proudly reported to President Putin - with the words about the end of the Civil War, is a very remarkable thing. It turns out that the first and louder of all about the victory of the Syrian army on the Syrian land was not at all Syrian officials and generals. And not President Assad called President Putin with joyful news. The world - including, I think, the president of Syria and Syrian generals - this was reported by Russian generals and Minister of Defense Shoigu.

Why so? Well, it is clear that the Russian VKS, having conquered dominance in the sky of Syria, ironed the terrorists and thereby bring success. Confirmation of this is at least the fact that in two weeks of battles, Russian aircraft in Syria made 650 sorties. Given the fact that the grouping of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Syria is now 24 aircraft, this means that each pilot makes two combat sorties per day. In April, the head of the Main Operational Department of the Russian General Staff , General of Rudskoye, in April, announced that since the beginning of the operation in Syria, his subordinates had committed more than 23 thousand sorties and inflicted about 77 thousand beats. But there is one mystery: at the end of the last year, these same sorties were 30 thousand. "From the beginning of the operation in Syria, Russian aviation has committed more than 30 thousand sorties," said the first deputy chief of the Aerospace Forces of Russia, Lieutenant General Pavel Kurachenko in December 2016. Where did 7 thousand sorties go - probably a military secret. The generals can not own the primary grades arithmetic ... But in general, if for the sake of curiosity, run through the reports of military leaders about the number of destroyed command posts, warehouses and oil refinery of the Islamic State, then Munchausen can be safely sent to retirement.

Generals are sometimes confused in numbers, this is everyday business, especially when you report about your successes. But even non -person people know that to seize or liberate the territory, the city, the Christian shrine can only be ground for terrestrial troops - infantry, people with weapons in their hands. I already had to write that in real life the Syrian government army is fighting exclusively in the east, that is, not to the detriment. Fools, who are ready for $ 55, to die for an ophthalmologist, who dad left the country and the presidency in Syria for a long time, for a month. Therefore, the Iranian “Guardians of the Islamic Revolution”, “Hezbollah” and Palestinian volunteers are fighting as infantry and tankers. Of course, they are fighting incomparably better than Syrian troops, but still Palmyra, Aleppo, Deir-ez-Zor and many other cities of Syria have remained under the control of the Islamic State for years.

And suddenly a decisive success. What is the reason? And it is very simple: Deir ez-zor, with a high degree of probability, took ground forces of another origin and with another combat training. Namely, Russian mercenaries, who, however, in the Kremlin, the State Duma and on Russian TV are called "volunteers" or fighters of private military companies. These companies in Russia are officially outlawed, but at the same time they live calmly, and the owners and commanders of the PMC are invited to the Kremlin to receptions where they receive state awards.

Russian PMCs have been operating in Syria for a long time, but before the capture of the der-ez-car, their actions were not so large-scale. As usual, the whole thing here is in money, and not in the number of people who want to pick up the machine gun and go to kill and die somewhere in the Donbass, Syria or somewhere else. There are full of such people in Russia today, because life in the country is such that it seems to many: it is better to go to Syria than to sit for 6,000 rubles a month in some outback, where there are no roads, no decent hospitals, nor prospects.

Mercenaries need to be paid, and the Russian budget, even its military unit, is increasingly reminiscent of the last cutlet on the festive table. The cutlet is one, and there are a lot of greedy guests around. Syria will not pay mercenaries, because she has nothing to pay. Syria and her entire military operation have been contained by Russia and Iran for several years, and this money to Moscow and Tehran will never return. Where to get the money to pay mercenaries? And the way out was found, classic Russian: to make some people a proposal, which is better not to refuse. Well, and for the sake of justice, the proposal is a bit to make funny - your own people.

This story received publicity a few months ago. At the end of last year, Russia was visited by the Minister of Oil and Gaza of Syria Ali Ganami. According to the results of the visit, he spoke about meetings with "representatives of Russian oil companies working in Syria", mentioning the signing of a number of agreements on collaboration and general projects. Details were not given.

One memorandum was signed with Euro Polis LLC . According to this document, the Euro Polis LLC undertakes to free (!) From the militants of the Islamic State and the Syrian opposition detachments of oil and gas fields, processing plants, and then ensure their safety. Including in the course of further work. The share of the Euro Polis in the production of oil and gas is 25%. All expenses for combat operations are reimbursed separately. And this is the most “euro ...” belongs to Evgeny Prigozhin, a longtime associate of Vladimir Putin. That is, it is clear why the liberation of the oil-ez-zor oil region was accomplished? Prigogine gives money for the preparation, payment and equipment of volunteer mercenaries. Those capture and acquire oil fields in Syria, and then Prigozhin returns their investments in the form of part of the income from the production and sale of oil. And everyone is happy.

It is very easy to believe in your martial art, when there is no enemy, but there is a “purpose” there, on earth, and who was torn to shreds in these “goals” is unknown, and you don’t give a damn

The Russian budget and the Ministry of Defense cease to spend money on private military companies. Assad receives back the territories and deposits, which his army would never have returned otherwise. Prigozhin receives oil for nothing: hire one or two thousands of mercenaries who need to pay $ 2,000 per month (and even $ 500 for weapons and equipment)-a maximum of $ 5 million a month. A couple of months of the war, and Dair-Ez-Zor is captured. Try to buy a quarter of an oil field for $ 10 million! And then, I think, it is clear who exactly made this proposal to Mr. Prigozhin, could it be refused? .. Not so long ago, Euro Polis LLC opened an office in Damascus, and the other day Deir ez-Zor was released.

The second Russian company, which agreed with Minister Ganem, is Stroytransgaz , and its owner is Gennady Timchenko. Gennady Timchenko is also an old acquaintance of some and also an insanely successful businessman. For the sake of fairness, it should be noted that Stroytransgaz is not a newcomer in Syria, in ancient times this company successfully and worked a lot in Syria until the war began. I dare to assume that it is Stroytransgaz that will restore the infrastructure of oil production and processing, for which he will receive its 25% of the subsequent sale. That is, Assad and Russia will share oil revenues in half. Well, before that, Stroytransgaz, probably, will also spend on the "release and protection of deposits and objects of the oil industry." What will be paid separately.

All these agreements act exactly until the Assad is alive and sits in Damascus. And this is a question of the interaction of many factors like the mood of Erdogan or the imagination of Ivanka Trump. In addition, Syrian oil is not the most delicious piece of Middle Eastern energy resources: the reserves are not the same, and the infrastructure is destroyed, and the transportation is a big problem. The "left" oil-seollars from Syria, who were enough for the relatives of Erdogan at a casino in Monaco or for the current needs of a not very attractive "Islamic state", will be very scarce compensation to the Russian oligarchs who could not refuse some of his request.

Now about what the Russian army has achieved and what the combat experience, the testing of weapons, the transfer of resources, people and equipment received. "During the operation, more than 200 weapons were tested, which showed high efficiency based on the results of combat use and proved the ability to fulfill the tasks," said Igor Markushev, a representative of the Russian defense department . Here, however, there is also some oddity, here is another message : "In total, during the military operation in Syria, the Russian military experienced more than 600 samples of modern weapons and military equipment." Probably, Russia has so many this new military equipment that a hundred or two back and forth have no meaning ...

The most debugged part of the military operation in Syria is the delivery of goods, ammunition, fuel, food. According to some estimates, the Russian Ministry of Defense delivers 2000 tons of cargo per day to the crisis zone. This operation "Syrian express" is called-ships and tankers, some of which are purchased from Ukraine and Turkey, transport aircraft IL-76. It is understandable: the Minister of Defense Shoigu was previously the Minister of Emergency Situations and did an excellent job with his work. The main task of the Ministry of Emergencies is to eliminate the consequences, to deliver cargo and humanitarian to the injured areas. So they deliver ...

And there seems to be military successes too. Hundreds of thousands of militants were destroyed. Tens of thousands of warehouses. Thousands of oil refineries. In general, the troops are on top, and if suddenly where the war is again, they will give the enemy along the nostrils. But in Syria, the Russian military-space forces, of course, was not the most terrible opponent: as in the exercises under Voronezh or in Siberia. Bomb, shoot - and go home to the base, drink a seagull. The Russian army did not experience any opposition from the enemy: funds were not used, anti -aircraft systems did not threaten anti -aircraft systems. There is no struggle in the air, attempts to cut the ways to supply the grouping ammunition, fuel, and there was no equipment. In these conditions, it would be difficult not to show the highest efficiency of combat use. And if suddenly, by virtue of chance, real opposition suddenly arose for a moment, then the Russian VKS had a tragedy. The only Turkish fighter appeared in the sky - and instantly knocked down SU and dead pilots. A group of evacuation by a helicopter for a surviving pilot rushed, and here is the result: the destroyed helicopter, the dead commandos. They shot at the Mi-28 when attacking near Homs-and that’s all, there is no more Mi-28, and there is no crew ... Trump banged at the Syrian Tomagavka air base-and there is no air base, and the Russian S-400 was either not. No one was repaired and did not hit anyone ...

So the combat experience in Syria, of course, has been gained. Only this is what service he will play for the Russian army - this is another question. It is very easy to believe in your martial art, when there is no enemy, but there is “goals” there, on earth, and who was torn to shreds in these “goals” is unknown, and does not give a damn. And if tomorrow a real war, with a radio electronic warfare, MANPADS, intelligence, enemy in the air, missile strikes at his own air base - will be a rubbish.

What will happen next in Syria? Assad will be able to sit in power only on Russian and Iranian bayonets. So, Russia will have to be in Syria for the sake of Assad, it is not known how much, although it will be necessary to leave anyway. At least 2 billion dollars were spent on the military operation by the beginning of autumn 2017. Or 120 billion rubles if you are nicer in the ruins to your heart. And there was also economic support for the regime, and there will also be a write -off of debts and the restoration of Syria. And on the horizon the next military campaign, and also with good purposes - to Libya. The agreement with Marshal Haftar, which controls the oil fields in the vicinity of Benghazi, has already been achieved, Russia is already supplying his weapons, he is treating and teaching him. Dmitry Medvedev is soon invited to visit Libya. Libyan oil is not Syrian. And it will be more than it, and logistics is completely different, and the quality is better. So you can safely make bets, which of the Russian oligarchs will begin to invest in the fight against Libyan Islamists.

Vladimir Bekish - an expert in the field of strategic security

Opinions expressed under the section may not reflect the point of view of the editorial office