The capture of the Bundestag

Merkel remains chancellor. Social Democrats intend to go to the opposition. "Alternative for Germany" becomes the third force in the country.

The boring election campaign in Germany ended with predictable drama. It takes time to comprehend its results. For at least a few months it is necessary to observe what is happening in order to understand how Germany will change. And external changes are inevitable - for the fact that more than 80 "alternatives" will sit in the Bundestag. That is, the marginal previously racist and Posoputin speeches will gain parliamentary respectability. Freshly chosen oppositionists will try even more successfully than before, to crack German society, to intimidate him and indicate his right road. In the direction where any refugee with an unpleasant color of the skin has a terrorist threat that has come up from afar from afar, and friendship with Moscow is a guarantor of foreign policy stability and economic prosperity.

No, this will not become a mainstream, but will have an impact on a public climate in the country. ADG figures will receive federal status and the stands with which they will now begin to broadcast on behalf of the people who handed them the mandates. Of course, on behalf of the people the winners and the Angel Merkel herself will act, but taking into account the fact that their positions are somewhat weakened. Given the Russian factor, since the vigorous entry of the “alternative” will not be limited to financial, propaganda and moral election support for the Kremlin. Given the ominous historical parallels, finally. Still, the heirs of Nazi ideologists did not eat a long time in the German parliament. In alliance with the former reds, this is a terrible force.

On the contrary, the future of the alleged ruling coalition of the CDU/CSS with free democrats and green is not yet inspired by special optimism. At least in comparison with the already established block, from which the Social Democrats leave. Of course, Frau Chancelline will dominate it, but if in the previous association, where the roles have long been painted, this was perceived for granted, then the “Yamaika” promises surprises. There will be more contradictions between the allies in it than that of the one -party members of Merkel with the single -party people of Steinmeier and Gabriel.

However, the presence of the third force should persuade the winners to the decisions of the responsible and discussions fruitful. There is practically no more to unite with them, except with the left, which, against the background of ADG, do not look as repulsive as yesterday, but it still gives it with exotic. Not to mention the fact that the former communists are fed from the same foreign trough as the Alternative.

If you look back in search of mistakes made by German ruling democrats, who literally brought by the hand to the neo -Nazis and xenophobes parliament, then the obvious should be recognized: there were no obvious mistakes. For in September 2015, Angel Merkel fell into a trap of the "refugee crisis", from which a normal exit was not visible. On the Schengen nonexistent, the border of Austria with Germany stood, increasing, and a huge crowd of people who fled from different countries, and it was necessary to quickly decide: to close this border or to let them into Germany. Since no one in all civilized Europe, especially in such quantities, would not want them, and they were eager for the vast majority of Germany.

There was an option - not to let it go. To cordon, drive somewhere back, introduce troops, if necessary, use weapons. The political meaning of such an event would be reduced to the fact that then in the country no "alternative" would arise. The power itself would have proposed an alternative to the humanism with unpredictable consequences, following the governments of many states of the old continent, starting with the Eastern European ones. ADG, which failed in the previous elections, would have failed on these. True, many Germans, who had previously voted over Merkel, would surely recoil from her, but at that moment Frau Chancerers thought about the upcoming elections.

The decision, which she made two years ago, is still explained in different ways, but it seems that there is no need to look for complex answers. The girl from the pastor family simply showed mercy, shuddering at the thought of what an alternative order could turn away to drive them all away - refugees from Syria and not from Syria, really desperate people and crooks, undoubted victims of the Middle Eastern War and possible terrorists. There was no time to understand.

However, it was then, in the fall of 2015, much of what happened in Germany later was predetermined. New Year's Eve in Cologne, strengthening the understandable fears of the Germans in front of a crowd of unknown aliens. The misfortunes of the girl Lisa, whose fate was bitterly mourned by the rude Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs. Protest shares of local caring and emigrating from the USSR of Germany. The political take -off of ADG and its success in the 2017 parliamentary elections.

Everything, they say, is reasonable, and the third place, won by an unsystematic opposition in one of the most prosperous European countries, is quite understandable. This is an alternative man -made, created by the joint efforts of Berlin and Moscow. Merkel paid for humanism. Foreign partners could not help but take advantage of the tired chance.

True, they took advantage of this chance not too effective. Not like in America, for example, where a very effective intervention of Russian special services in the election campaign is recorded. This failure also lends itself to reasonable interpretation. Trump in Germany was not yet born, the country did not ripen to Trump and is hardly ripening, and the angel is not at all Hillary, and the provocations of the Kremlin after the scandalous elections in the United States lost a taste of novelty. As a result, political technology in the West itself was the struggle with attempts by foreign interference in internal affairs, and the stigma of the "Kremlin agents" was too noticeably imprinted on the foreheads of the latest irreconcilable oppositionists so that they can count on a place above the third. And the refugee crisis is gradually overcoming, because there is hope that in the next election a party without a political or economic program, which can only incite hatred and sow fears, the current success will not repeat its success.