Madrid vs Barcelona

How the most dramatic fight in the modern history of Spain will end

In Barcelona, ​​a demonstration was held under the slogan of the unity of Catalonia and Spain, on October 8, 2017. Photo: ctv.by

On Friday, October 5, 2017, two people entered the office of the head of the government (Zheneralitat) of Catalonia Puchdemon with a sweeping step, whose names know any entrepreneur in Barcelona-from the owner of a small auto-repair workshop to the owner of large wine production, and any banking clerk, the head of the business union of CERCLE financiers D'EConomia, and Salvador Alemani, head of Foment del Traball, the oldest association of entrepreneurs in Spain.

Puchdemon sat at the desktop and noted his future speech in the Catalan parliament on the occasion of the proclamation of independence-this was planned to be done on Monday, the 9th. Puchdemon has already sent the telephone message to Amadeus Altafaju, the representative of Catalonia in Brussels, with a request to prepare the EU establishment properly for this event. “Here, 90.18%-“ for ”,” Puchemon, who had just been brought by the official results of the referendum on independence that was successfully held on October 1, despite the EU member of the EU, just brought him with the guests of the EU, shared more than 5 thousand police officers from all the provinces of the country, who, without hesitation, applied against those who were used to those who, not hesitated to those who, without heating, applied to him. He defended his right to vote - rubber bullets, batons and fists. “In my opinion, you should not pull further.”

Business voted

According to the Catalan Law on referendum, the results of the will of citizens should be embodied in specific political decisions within 48 hours, two days. This means that on Monday, the 9th, the Catalonia parliament was obliged to proclaim the independence of autonomy. Processing for Puchdemon himself was like political death and even fraught with more serious consequences - in the form of a long -term prison term for “disobedience” and “incitement”. Madrid has already shown that he does not intend to stand on ceremony with the Catalan top: during the referendum a week before the referendum, on September 24, 14 Catalan officials were arrested at once, as we would say, categories “A”. Any other decision, except for the declaration of independence, its supporters would have perceived as a miserable palliative, fatal deflection in front of Madrid's will: Puchnemona understood this.

“Listen, either solve the problem, or announce extraordinary elections. Otherwise, Puchdemon will drag the whole Spain to the bottom "

Puchdemon told the guests that he had prepared a performance in two languages ​​so that the Spaniards living in Catalonia would not feel some kind of inferiority.

"What are you doing? - Bruger frowned. - Did you seriously start all this? .. You have not yet reported that Caixabank ( the third largest Bank of Spain. - NT) moves to Alikant? Next in line is Sabadell ( the fourth largest banking group of Spain. - NT). ” - "Why?" - asked Puchdemon. - “Because they ( Bank's leadership. - NT) For two weeks now“ shuttle ”in Madrid and vice versa. And they have information that if you take the region, Rahah will immediately introduce the 155th article and send an army here ... In my opinion, it's time to stop ... ”

The 155th article of the Spanish Constitution provides for the introduction of the direct rule of the central authorities in the region, which jeopardizes the territorial integrity of the country. It has never been used before. The Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rahoy was never particularly determined and would hardly have planned to become a pioneer on this path. But Rahoy is not the entire ruling people's party ( conservatives, right -centers. - NT). There are more influential people in it, even if they are not in positions now. Among them is the ex-prime minister Jose Maria Asnar.

Prime Minister of Spain Mariano Raha (in the center). Photo: F * * Lickr.com

Catxit and reality

After the likely departure from Catalonia after Caixabank and Sabadell announced giants such as the Gas Natural gas group (23 million customers in 30 countries), the most precise codorniu and Freixenet winery, the world's largest playful wine producer, asnar called the ranga: “Listen,“ Listen, “Listen,“ Listen, “Listen,“ Listen, “Listen,“ Listen Solve the problem, or announce extraordinary elections. Otherwise, Puchdemon will drag the whole Spain to the bottom "

“When Puchemon was launched by Catxit ( abbreviation from Catalonia Exit. -NT), he did not take into account the experience of Brexit,” Raphael Sambola, professor of EADA business school in Barcelona, ​​is ironic. - The British, whose economy is much stronger than ours, immediately began the erosion of the London City, the money reached out where it is calmer - to Frankfurt. It will be even worse for us, because the country has been in crisis for almost 10 years. The fee for political risks will be the fall in the cost of Spanish bonds, an increase in interest rates, and, possibly, a complete cessation of the flow of foreign investment in Catalonia and Spain. ”

“They completely ignore the fact that, firstly, up to 75% of the goods produced in Catalonia are sold in the intra-Spanish market, and secondly, the current Catalonia credit rating is at a speculative level”

Carles Puchdemona, a journalist by profession, freely speaking, unlike Mariano Rajoy, in English and French, can hardly be called an economic profan. In the end, the main argument of both his personally and his entire team in favor of the independence of Catalonia is economic: the region gives Madrid € 16 billion more (according to Madrid's calculations - € 10 billion) than he receives from him: “We need this?” The region, which accounts for 20% of the GDP, accounts (despite the fact that only 16% of the country's population lives in Catalonia), and this share exceeds Portuguese GDP, which provides 25% of Spanish exports and accepts 18 million tourists a year, this region has a reliable economic and financial air pillow for independent swimming. Yes, at first there will be difficulties, but it is no coincidence that the parliament has already voted the law on the transition period - we will solve the problems as they accumulate.

The head of the Government of Catalonia Carles Puchdemon. Photo: espanarusa.com

“On the one hand, the Puchdemona team seemed to have provided for everything-and the probable collapse of GDP by 30–35% immediately after the proclamation of independence, and stabilization with a return to zero growth for a transitional two-year period, and 7 percent growth in the long term,” says the Barcelona economic observer Zhordi K (surname did not indicate), familiar with the economic program of the Catalan of the Catalan. -On the other hand, they completely ignore the fact that, firstly, the lion's share of goods, up to 75%produced in Catalonia, are implemented in the intra-Spanish market, and secondly, the current Catalonia credit rating is located at the speculative level BB+ with a negative forecast due to increased risks. Catalonia will not be able to borrow in foreign markets - she will have to occupy Madrid. So is the game of candles? "

“When they ( separatists. - NT) ask, and what currency independent Catalonia will use - they answer without hesitation: in the beginning - the euro. Like, the free walking of the euro is used by Monaco, San Marino, the Vatican, not to mention Montenegro and Kosovo, and nothing, they live, ”says Zhoakin Raola journalist from Barcelona. - At the same time, they are sure that Catalonia will become a member of the EU sooner or later. They do not understand: either full membership in the EU and in the eurozone, with subsidies and guarantees of the Euro -center, or “free walking” of the quasi -fiction currency of the euro. Not to mention the fact that Catalonia will never become a member of the EU, because Spain with its right to block the voice will always be against it. ”

On "Russian Street"

With the fact that money is loved by silence, the Catalan “Russian street” also agrees. According to unofficial data, in Catalonia-in Barcelona and other cities of the coast of Kosta-Brava-they purchased real estate from 20 to 27 thousand Russians. As soon as conversations about the inevitable department went, a light ripples ran around the real estate market. “We have almost half a percent growth in the offer market in just one week from October 1, this is a decent indicator,” says Sergey A. (he asked not to indicate the name), the owner of one of the real estate agencies in Barcelona. “Our people, imagine, are already starting to think-and what they will live among the separatists, whether they are recognized as their own, although living in a united Spain, for some reason they did not ask such a question,” Sergey ironizes.

The average value of the transaction for the purchase of real estate in Barcelona is € 200-250 thousand. “This is real money. People are afraid to lose even 10-15% when reselling. ” The same “easy concern”, according to the realtor, is already observed not only in the “Russian segment” of the real estate market: “Everyone is worried, and the Russian oligarch and the British pensioner.”

Another significant argument of skeptics: Madrid, having occupied € 67 billion in Catalonia through the Autonomous Regions support fund, will offer her to pay for her debts - and then Catalonia's debt will exceed 100% of the GDP - this is a catastrophe.

Supporters of independence, these calculations, of course, do not convince. But the main argument of the separatists is economic. So, Gerard Rollol, an activist of the Catalonia Public National Assembly (NAC), is sure that independence will noticeably raise the standard of living. “Now, despite the crisis, the unemployment rate is only 13%, almost five percentage points lower than the national average. When we stop paying tribute to Madrid, we will direct all the money for raising salaries and pensions ( which are now 20-30% higher than in the rest of Spain. - NT), we will create tens of thousands of new jobs, and the utility bill, for example, will become lower, given that Madrid supplies us at a price of 20% higher than the average market. ”

It’s good where we are not. Independence is a place in which 2 million 044 thousand Catalans who voted on October 1 for a department from Spain have not yet lived.

“We are ready to play only in the Spanish League,” said the President of Barcelona, ​​the head of the Catalan government. And it sounded like the last warning

Soil for negotiations

At that moment, when the ex-prime minister Asnar called the Spanish Prime Minister Marian Rakhu, they already knew in Madrid: in the environment of the head of the Catalonia government, Front was formed, and even such convinced associates as Zordi Kushart began to aloud to talk about the need to start negotiations with Madrid.

They knew something else in Madrid: the owners of the most expensive diamond in the Catalan crown - FC Barcelona, ​​whose motto - “more than the club” was chosen against a unilateral proclamation of independence. Football is one of the pillars of Catalonia. The Barcelona club, which is part of the most richest football clubs in the world, costs more than $ 3 billion now. They say that the club President Josep Bartomeu personally called Puchdemon on October 7 and offered to perform an intermediary in negotiations with Madrid. “We are ready to play only in the Spanish League,” Burtolomeu told the head of the government. And it sounded like the last warning.

President of the Barcelona football club Josep Bartomeu. *Photo: F * *Lickr.com/ *Francisco Javier Fernández

Rahuya was inspired by the fact that on October 8, a powerful manifestation against the department from Spain was in the cities of Catalonia. In Tarragon, the Russian “Kalinka” was carried from the loudspeakers with the Spanish words: “Yo Soy Espanol, Espanol, Espanol!” - "I am a Spaniard, Spaniard, Spaniard - and that’s it!" But in some places “A Por Ellos” was heard - a bully screamer of the Spanish football fans: “Come on them” - obsertists, that is. The screamer, I must say, is quite innocent in comparison with the fact that hundreds of young people sang on one of the antisaparastic demonstrations in Madrid on September 30. And they sang “Cara al Sol”-the anthem of the Spanish phalanx, and some also wore it-and the shadow of Generalissimus Franco ... September-October crisis-one of the most difficult, in the modern history of Spain, and he sowed the turmoil in many fragile souls-this should be understood to understand this.

Finally, another positive signal for Madrid: the Catalan parliament made the decision to gather to discuss the results of the referendum not on the 9th, but on October 10. And the prime minister Raha could not but report on the inferior, reigning surrounded by Puchdemon: now he is advised to proclaim not the independence of the region, but only symbolically recognize the results of the referendum. And this is in the current conditions - like heaven and earth.

In essence, at the disposal, Mariano Rahya, that the Catalan parliament would not undertake and proclaim, there is a simple set of instruments that will help him calm the situation, not bringing to direct - and, God forbid, an armed clash. The principle is simple: a concession to the concession. Catalonia introduces a moratorium on the exit from Spain. Madrid, in turn, corrects the error of 2010, when the Constitutional Court, having followed the other regions of the country, took back the right to be called a nation from the Catalans in 2006. And also - the right to dispose of their taxes themselves. That's right: in 2006, they gave, in 2010-they took it back. “As soon as they took it back, Catalonia got on its hind legs, and Puchemon’s predecessor, Arthur Mas, and began to grate the idea of ​​independence in an adult way, because before that there were toys, no one seriously wanted to separate,” says the resident of Barcelona Arnold Kocho. - Puchdemon decided to simply bring to the logical end of the idea of ​​Mas, whom he considers to be his spiritual father. The main driving force of Catalan separatism is a feeling of resentment and injustice. ”

"The main driving power of Catalan separatism is a feeling of resentment and injustice"

Whether Madrid will make concessions is an open question. Also, because in 2010, politicians of the now-ruling people's party (NP) were behind the judges of the KS. And she never wanted to recognize the right to be a “special society”, the right that Canada, after a long-term and difficult negotiation process, recognized the Franco-speaking Quebeck. Recognized - and since then all Quebec referendums about independence have fallen safely.

One way or another, while the vocabular of the Prime Minister Rachi in relation to Catalonia is deliberately tough, his message: “You better obey, otherwise ...”

And what?

In 1714, King Philip V from the Bourbons dynasty ascended the Spanish throne. He forbade the Catalan language, in Barcelona built a fortress with an area of ​​20 hectares, placed the guns on its walls and deployed them with poles inside - into the city. So that its inhabitants remember - and were afraid. The citadel stood 150 years (now at the place where it stood - the Barcelona park of the Cuttala).

Catalans are tired of being afraid.