Satellite paradox. On the question of the blindness of the expert community

Since childhood, we know that reading other people's letters is not good. But we have to admit: the Soviet era is best studied precisely from the preserved correspondence. There are no official sources of trust, emasculated memoirs - even more so. Documents, including declassified, clarify the picture, but do not give ideas about the true thoughts and feelings of witnesses of the era. Only in correspondence (less often in diaries) a sincere view of the people, his country, the world breaks through. It is especially interesting to study the correspondence of famous people who have long turned into a historical image or even into the propaganda “icon”. It often turns out that their view on the era of perpendicular is the current stereotype.

In this sense, great value is the new complete collected works of Fantasy writers Arkady and Boris Strugatsky, which should be thirty-three volumes. It is prepared for the press by the research group "Ludden" 1 . For the first time, letters from the Arkady Strugatsky archive are published for the first time, diary and work notes of the brothers - the reader gets the opportunity not only to get acquainted with the texts of writers who have been stored in folders for decades, but also to feel Zeitgeist (the spirit of the times), which are literally permeated by the correspondence between them. For example, an unprepared person may be surprising how freely the Strugatsky discuss the prospects for the development of the solar system long before the first artificial satellite of the Earth was launched. 1957 is just beginning, and the brothers are quite seriously writing about photon missiles that will soon replace the atomic on the way to distant planets-the main science fiction idea of ​​the story, which will soon become known to the Soviet reader called "Country of Bagrian clouds." Therefore, when you get to October 1957 (that is, before the launch of the "satellite-1"), you do not expect any special delights from people, in your imagination, which were taken to the surface of Venus and Mars. Nevertheless, two remarks that the brothers exchanged deserve attention.

To the letter of October 6, Arkady Strugatsky made an appointment: “For the satellite-gip-hip-ura-ura-ura !!!!!!!” On October 10, Boris Strugatsky replied: “Satellite Hurray! But in general, it is not for nothing that the Americans call him a “piece of iron”. This is not a scientific experiment, but simply a “fact”. But still - great. Dreams come true. ”

Another modern commentator could speak about this exchange in the spirit that Arkady Strugatsky looks like a fiery patriot here, and Boris Strugatsky - as a typical Western. But such a conclusion would not take into account the difference in education and access to the specialized literature: Boris Natanovich, being a professional astronomer at that time, had a certain advantage over an older brother and, in this case, acted as an expert.

Indeed, if you turn to the historical context of the time of preparation and launch of the “satellite-1”, then one can notice the amazing “blindness” of the expert community, which clearly underestimated the importance of breeding the man-made object into orbit.

As you know, the idea of ​​an artificial Earth satellite was also nominated by Isaac Newton in the monograph “Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy” (1687), illustrating his calculations to the concept of the first cosmic speed. Its popularization took up its popularization at the end of the 19th century. The first author to describe an artificial satellite is the American writer and theologian Edward Hale: the characters of his fantastic story “The Brick Moon” (The Brick Moon, 1869) launch an artificial object with a diameter of two hundred feet (61 m), made of brick (they believed that he would be soaked so much that he would have soaked so much that he would have soaked so much that he would have soaked so much that it would be so that it would be so that it would be so that it would be so far away that so that no existing metal can withstand the temperature); Moreover, by chance, there are people who not only managed to survive the start, but also organized the heavenly community. Interestingly, Hale justified the need to launch a purely utilitarian problem by solving: by observing a satellite, sailors will be able to easily determine their longitude.

The founders of theoretical cosmonautics, for example, Konstantin Tsiolkovsky and German Obert, after science fiction writers were offered to immediately build inhabited orbital stations, collecting them from blocks of launched missiles. Their future purpose was justified in different ways-from astronomical observations to use as remote weapons. However, time passed, and there was no carrier to remove at least the simplest satellite. Therefore, quite exotic projects arose: for example, in 1944, Major General George Pokrovsky proposed launching a metal satellite by the method of a directed explosion. Of course, he understood that as a result, only “some unorganized masses of metals” would enter the orbit, but I was sure that humanity needed such experience, since observing the movement of an “unorganized” object would give a lot of new information about those processes that occur in the higher layers of atmosphere 3 .

A serious discussion of the idea of ​​an artificial satellite began after the war, when the allies in the anti-Hitler coalition received at their disposal rich missile trophies-production technology and ready-made samples of the A-4 heavy ballistic missile (FAU-2). German missiles rose to a cosmic height (above 100 km) and opened before experts the prospect of gradual penetration into the near -Earth space. In May 1946, the Rand analytical corporation issued a “preliminary project of an experimental spacecraft for flights around the Earth” 4 . In it, among other things, it was indicated that artificial satellites will become the most effective means of scientific research in the twentieth century and that the launch of the first satellite will certainly have a strong influence on public mindset in the world. However, Rand did not pay attention to the “prophecy”. The fact is that the research launches of ballistic missiles at that time became commonplace, and experts interpreted the idea of ​​an artificial satellite as a logical step in the development of this particular direction. Therefore, when on July 29, 1955, the press secretary of President Eisenhauer James Hagerti announced that the United States would launch a satellite during the international geophysical year, his words were perceived as a “working moment”. Artificial satellite of the Earth? Why not? Later, Soviet scientists also joined the American initiative: first, Academician Leonid Sedov reported the intention to launch the satellite; The official statement on the same occasion in September 1956 was made by academician Ivan Bardin. It would be logical to expect that a race for a priority that will be reflected in the media will begin between the USSR and the USA, however, the study of publications of that time reveals a completely different picture: it seems that the whole world is sure that the United States will be the first - the Avangard and Farcade projects are discussed, and the plans to deploy a satellite group 5 . Only by October 1957, disturbing notes appeared: the 100th anniversary of Tsiolkovsky passed, marked in Moscow on a large scale, and the “red” did not bother to publish details about the design of their satellite-what did they intend?

On October 4, 1957, the answer was received - a brilliant ball with four antennas reached orbit and began to broadcast voiced signals. The effect of the launch surpassed all the expectations: Soviet citizens rejoiced, the Europeans erupted with congratulations to the USSR and ulcerative comments on the USA, the Americans felt a real horror, seeing that in the eyes of the world they lost the status of an advanced power that determines the contours of the future for a long time.

Of course, the “satellite-1” was a “piece of iron” (by the way, the first, not immediately flying American “avant-garde” was the same “piece”, only smaller), but this “piece” changed the worldview. On the day of its launch, humanity became “cosmic”, and society, unlike experts, instantly realized this simple, but at the same time magnificent fact.

The satellite paradox is that scientists, experts, analysts perfectly understood that the appearance of man-made objects in near-Earth orbits would be a qualitative jump in world scientific and technical development, which will affect all aspects of civilization-from strategic planning to household issues. However, for the most part, they discussed the training of satellites as a quantitative trend in a series of studies of the upper layers of the atmosphere and near -Earth space. The exception was, perhaps, employees of the Rand Corporation, but they did not listen to them. As a result, the socio-political resonance caused by the launch was later compared with the explosion of the atomic bomb.

Today, after sixty years, experts discussing the prospects of lunar or Martian expeditions make the same mistake. They evaluate the projects of interplanetary flights as a staged continuation of existing ISS programs. Perhaps, from a technical point of view, it is, however, from the standpoint of the historical process, we should talk about qualitative changes that will give earthly civilization such flights. And it means that there is hope for the development of space expansion, because the number earlier or later always goes into quality.

Anton Pervushin

1 Collected Works published in electronic format can be purchased at Litgraf.com/eshop.html?shop=10

2 materials from the archive of Boris Strugatsky were published earlier.

3 Pokrovsky G. New Earth satellite // Technique - Youth. 1944. No. 2-3.

4 www.rand.org/pubs/special_memoranda/sm11827.html

5 A selection of articles on astronautics in foreign languages ​​of 1957 can be found here: epizodyspace.ru/bibl/stati-ostr-1957-1-6.html