"Trojan pony" from Minsk

An invitation to Brussels to the Eastern Partnership summit at the end of November this year, which was sent to Belarus, is addressed directly to Alexander Lukashenko. This was announced by the Belarusian Internet portal TUT.BY with reference to the representative office of the European Union in Minsk . "Belarus was invited to participate in the" Eastern Partnership "summit in Brussels in the same way as other member countries of the Eastern Partnership initiative and the countries of the European Union: the invitation is addressed to the head of state. The decision on who will present Belarus at the summit remains with the official Minsk," the representative office said. Previously, Belarus was also invited to the summit, but according to diplomatic channels, Minsk was always understood that the presence on the forum of Alexander Lukashenko is undesirable.

Unofficial about changing the EU position, it became known on Tuesday - the Brussels correspondent of Radio Liberty Ricard Yuzvyak, referring to his sources in the European Union, said that Belarus was invited to take part in the “without restrictions” Summit on November 24, as well as five other members of the Eastern Partnership: Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, and Georgia, Moldova and Moldova, Moldova and Moldova, Moldova and Moldova. Ukraine.

What made the EU change his attitude towards Alexander Lukashenko and how does Lukashenko himself intend to build cooperation with the European Union? The observer of the Belarusian Radio Service Freedom Yuri Drakhroust expresses his opinion:

Yuri Dracohroust

- Why, in your opinion, Alexander Lukashenko this time received a direct invitation to come to the Eastern Partnership summit?

- At first, probably, we must answer the question: why was he not invited before? Because since 2004, various sanctions have been in force in relation to Belarusian officials of various levels - visa and financial. Initially, sanctions were imposed against officials who were suspected of involvement in the disappearance of politicians. Well, after 2010, after the well -known overclocking of a post -assembled manifestation, after criminal cases against activists, including presidential candidate, it was already about hundreds of suction officials, including the head of state. Well, the logic was such that since human rights are violated in Belarus, then, accordingly, its status in this very "oriental partnership" is such as a little ... second freshness. And therefore, the first person was not invited, there were such a little Byzantine forms. They invited the country, but it was said: “You know, if Alexander Grigoryevich does not go, then, in general, this will be the right decision ...” Well, he, in general, did not go. And now the sanctions have been lifted, all practically, and therefore "there are no sanctions - there is an invitation." Here is such a simple formula on the surface. And if we talk about more deep things, then, of course, in the West, in Europe they drew attention to the fact that the policy of Minsk in recent years, in particular after 2014, has changed. Minsk began to get closer to Europe, Minsk, in general, took a position against Ukraine, maybe not the one that Europe would like, but also much not the same as the position of, say, Russia. This, in particular, embodied that although Lukashenko was under sanctions back in 2015, the Minsk agreements were still signed in Minsk. Merkel arrived in Minsk, Hollande arrived in Minsk. So, as they say, according to the totality of merits, as wrote in Soviet times, and such a gesture was made regarding the head of Belarus.

- The sanctions were lifted, but in March the situation in Belarus was greatly aggravated, there was a “a march of parasites”, people fell in jail. But then somehow everything resolved. Is this, in your opinion, the result of the abolition of sanctions?

"Marsh of Tuneyadsev" in Bobruisk, March 12, 2017

- I think yes. Because you very correctly remembered these events, very sad in Belarus. And then many in Belarus were afraid that the situation would return to December 2010. That is that long mass repressions will begin, that there will be criminal cases that will last for years. Presidential candidate of 2010 Nikolai Statkevich, I remind you, "squeezed out" for five years. After the events of this year, there were fears that something similar would be repeated. But it did not happen again. Who was put for 15 days, they were served, even a criminal case arose there, such as "against terrorists." But, in general, in a few months he was lowered on the brakes, the "terrorists" were not terrorists. And I think that yes, indeed, this is such a "distant echo" of the abolition of sanctions. It is worth saying that when they were canceled, many in Belarus were afraid that now the authorities would reason like this: and, go over, we can now do what we want! But it turned out that no. It turned out, well, not exactly the opposite, but not so. And this fact is that, as it were, Belarus made a gesture, in general, caused the answer to the Belarusian authorities: well, let's guys, and we will not become a big scale with batons. Yes, you can’t call it freedom, this cannot be called the liberalization of the institutional, that is, you can’t say that guarantees of compliance with the rule of law have appeared. No, there are no guarantees, but there are royal mercy: you respected us, well, and we respect you too. That is, who needs, we will plant, but not for long. The person will sit down for 15 days and will come out. And in this sense, we can say that at least there are no such political prisoners for years in Belarus now.

- Russia is now in a rigid confrontation with Western countries, including the European Union, and all this is primarily due to events in Ukraine. Can Putin somehow prevent the rapprochement of Belarus and the European Union? Can he interfere with this trip of Alexander Lukashenko to Brussels?

- I think the answer is no. And not because Putin cannot physically do this. But this year, Lukashenko went to Ukraine twice - once to Chernobyl, another was an official visit to Kyiv, he met with Poroshenko there. If you follow your logic, Putin had to forbid Lukashenko to go to Kyiv. But he did not forbid. Then we can say that the President of Armenia traveled to the Summites of the Eastern Partnership since 2009. And now he is also invited. Armenia in a military alliance with Russia, Armenia in an economic union with Russia, but she was never forbidden to go there. Formally speaking, why should Lukashenko be banned to go to this summit? In general, the "eastern partnership" is not NATO, it is not the European Union, but this is such a rather loose structure, initiative. And to say that if there is Lukashenko or Sargsyan, or anyone went to Brussels, then everything, he already surrendered, as they say, the West and sold Russia? Generally speaking, no. I think that, of course, in Moscow they will be unhappy, snort, say: well, that he ... and this one went there ... But I think that they will snort and nothing more.

- Then the question arises: how will Alexander Lukashenko behave, being in Brussels? Will he openly talk about the need to converge Belarus and the European Union? Or maybe he will take some kind of dual position? Or will it defend the interests of Moscow?

“You know, I think he will play.” I think he will say all the words about the fact that we are Europeans. And I think that he, of course, is called, will not pretend to be reminded by respected Western partners, that you haven’t invited me how many years, but it turned out to be forced to invite me. Some analysts recall that just after 2010, when there was a wave of sanctions, foreign ministers of Poland, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Germany wrote an open letter to New York Times, which was called Lukashenko, Laser, Loser. It was in 2010, seven years ago. All these four ministers no longer hold their posts, and Alexander Lukashenko ... Luzer? And I think that he will remind European partners. On the other hand, I think that by itself his visit is there-it will still be a certain spill Vladimir Vladimirovich. But at the same time, I believe that he will play any combination that will show that, no, he has the main ally-this is Moscow. Something like a Russian flag at the Paralympics in Rio. It is inexpensive, but beautiful. And after that, Russia will say: yes, Belarusians are brothers! And by the way, at the previous summit in Riga, the Belarusian side played exactly such a combination. There it was proposed in the final resolution to mention the annexation of Crimea, and the Belarusian side, in general, was quite sharply opposed to this. Here is such a two -faced Janus. On the one hand, we are still going to Brussels, and on the other hand, something will be done, it is shown that, they say, we are friends with Russia, we are brothers and Russia. And perceive it as you want. If you want, perceive Lukashenko as the Trojan horse of Moscow in Brussels. If you want, if you really want, you can perceive Lukashenko as your own Trojansky ... Well, maybe not a horse, but a pony, in Moscow, ”suggests Yuri Draghroust.

Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko

The Eastern Partnership is a project of the European Union, which has the main stated purpose for the development of integration relations of the European Union with six countries of the former USSR: Ukraine, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia and Belarus. The idea of the project was represented by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland Radoslav Sikorsky with the participation of Sweden at the EU Council on General Affairs and External Relations on May 26, 2008, the first summit was held in 2009 in Prague. The previous eastern partnership summit took place in May 2015 in Riga.