Do not simplify beyond measure

The coordinator of the Irkutsk School of Environmental Journalism, Vladimir Srashchuk, signs a strange article by the Buryat economist Sergei Khalaev, who simplified the problem of the low water of Baikal to the level of “tasks for the 4th grade”, and for some reason the hydroelectric station of the Angarsk cascade compared the basins.

In the Buryat tab of the Moscow Komsomolets, a strange article “Buryatia is defending the possibility of China to sell energy at bunch prices to the detriment of its interests.” Economist Sergei Khalaev skillfully exploits a public conviction inherent in Buryatia that the Irkutsk region receives excess energy due to the fact that the rivers of the republic flow into Baikal. And he raises the problem of the Mongolian hydroelectric power stations in the text, trying to write so that the residents of the republic is not offended, and to please the fraternal people of Mongolia. That is why he completes his text by an unexpected conclusion for a citizen of Russia: it is necessary to help the Mongols in the construction of the hydroelectric power station - and this is after the participants of all public hearings held at the beginning of 2017, they told these projects a decisive “no”. However, everything in order.

The article was written, as it were, “simple language”, so that it is clear to any reader. However, the attempt to simplify the problem of the low water of Baikal to the level of “tasks for grade 4” went too far: the author believes that the lake is “a classic pool with two pipes, and the amount of water incoming is equal to the number of arising (a brief for brevity), otherwise the lake would spill (debit more loan), or has dried out otherwise.” Alas, in the summer seasons we must not forget about evaporation, and in winter - about the consumption of ice formation. The area of ​​Baikal is 31,722 square meters. km - and this, by the way, is almost a tenth of the area of ​​the entire Buryatia. And it is definitely not worth neglecting such a consumption in any tasks.

Further, the author simplifies the situation even more and compares the Angarsk cascade reservoirs with basins. The “basin” of the fraternal reservoir, about 170 cubic km, would look especially good. The rabels clearly do not have deep knowledge about their work. For example, he writes: “In 2012, the Boguchanskaya hydroelectric power station went into service, its basin has not yet been flooded, the level of Baikal began to cause anxiety. The reason for the task of the 4th grade is simple-someone does not want to cover the tap in the period when the loan is more than the debit. ” If the author was looking for the truth, and not a reason to scandal, he would easily find out that the Boguchansk reservoir was filled to a design mark of 208 meters above the Baltic Sea in June 2015. At the same time, the units were introduced three per year in 2012, 2013 and 2014-that is, the station successfully worked at low marks, there was no haste with filling it, excuse me, there was no “basin”. Yes, and it could not be, because there was Baikal on one side of the scales, and on the other - a reservoir (58 cubic km) relatively modestly modest by the standards of the Angarsk cascade.

But the author, as we understand, is more important, so he writes: “The drain in the Baikal -Angara system is also not rubber, but agreements with the Chinese are already ready for the construction of two more hydroelectric power stations: Nizhneangarsk and Nizhnebuchanskaya.” This is what happens when you use information from the Yandex search engine, out of about two years. Indeed, in 2010-2015, the project for the construction of the fifth hydroelectric power station in the hangar was discussed, and it was even included in the general scheme for the placement of Russian electric power facilities until 2020. But the economic crisis put this project into question, and in 2017 it became known that neither energy nor potential consumers in the person of metallurgical companies see the construction of meaning - for all existing capacities. Moreover, the construction of two stations on the hangar at once. In this project, Chinese investors flashed only somewhere in the early stage and soon disappeared into smoke from coal stations in China-but they also planned to sell energy only in the domestic Russian market, without export prospects to their native penalties.

Once again, outdated data appear in the text when Mr. Khalaev assures the reader that "... the offer exceeds demand in Siberia and the Far East, and energy to China is sold at prices below wholesale, three times cheaper than local residents." First, we will deal with a proposal and demand. According to the branch of JSC “SO UES” “United Dispatching Department of the Siberian Energy System”, for nine months of 2017, electricity consumption in Siberia amounted to 149698.9 million kW*hours, and production - 147549.2 million kWh*hours. Not that any schoolboy from grade 4, but even a first-grader child, seeing these figures, will understand that there is not an excess on the face, but a deficit of energy, and very significant-2.1 billion kW*hours. And the year is not over yet ...

As for the wholesale sales of China, I would, of course, specify, of course: what specifically the amounts are we are talking about and in what sources did their author find? The myth of gratuitous energy flowing into China was created by people who do not take into account several factors. Firstly, a wholesale buyer always pays less than retail. Secondly, it is impossible to compare the tariff for the population (in which the funds for the maintenance of network equipment are not laid) with the price for a foreign buyer, which carries network costs on his hump. Thirdly, in the Far East of Russia, not one, but several isolated energy systems that cannot sell the developed energy in the domestic market at all. The ties between the largest of them - the OES of the East - with the same Siberian Siberian State University of Siberia, are very weak, and therefore the choice for power engineers is simple: either selling energy to China, or open the shutters of the water clips and skip water past the units, in particularly unfavorable situations, flooding the houses and gardens of local residents. Better to sell, agree? For an economist, it should be obvious.

But, having built a certain speculative structure from the basins and myths, Sergey Khalev propelled this structure with statues of the atlantean-oligarchs (merging Baikal to please their business). And then he generally fell upon fellow countrymen with accusations: “It turns out that Buryatia fiercely defends the possibility of China to sell energy at bunch prices contrary to his own economic interests. Meanwhile, its basin would not hurt us very much. It is necessary to focus efforts to promote the “position ...” and help the Mongols in the construction of hydroelectric power stations. ” The conclusion, amazing its absurdity: now Buryatia can earn at least something by selling energy in Mongolia produced on the coal and largest Gusinoozersky GRES in the Republic. But if the hydroelectric power station in the Selenges basin in Mongolia will be built, then the need for this export will simply disappear. Buryatia will have to stop their own generation and, sitting on the shore of the shallow selenes, buy energy from Mongolia. It is unlikely that the majority of the population will support this idea in Buryatia.

Vladimir Skrashchuk, coordinator of the Irkutsk School of Environmental Journalism

You can read so many mistakes about why the media who write about energy, you can read in the analysis of the author here