Prices went in growth

In September, in Russia, a decrease in consumer prices was again noted compared to the previous month, according to the results of the year, according to the forecasts of the authorities, the inflation rate may be even lower than previously expected. And Radio Liberty continues its project, in which its correspondents track the cost of some food and non -food goods and services throughout the year in order to compare their dynamics with official statistics.

In Russia, two cities - Moscow and Pskov, chose Radio Freedom for the Radio Experiment. And his conditional consumer basket, which includes seven main foods: meat (beef), sunflower oil, white sugar, milk, potatoes, eggs and bread. In addition, AI-95 gasoline is included in it. Forecasts for changing their prices in Russia during the year can be read in the first material on this topic. In the first half of the year, the prices of the “consumer basket” of Radio Liberty as a whole slowly grew - with the exception of potatoes, which reached a record pace. But at the end of summer and early autumn, much has changed.

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Meat

Prices for chilled beef, the assortment of which in Russia is quite diverse, has not changed for nine months in a row and put an absolute record of stability. In Moscow, in the Nazi Sails Universum network, for example, a kilogram of the cheapest meat (beef for broth) in early October still costs a little less than 470 rubles-exactly the same as at the beginning of the year. A slightly different situation in Pskov: in January, the minimum price of a kilogram of beef increased immediately by 5.5 percent - from 360 to 380 rubles, but then it decreased by the end of May to 340 rubles per kilogram. For June, the beef went up to 380 rubles, then again fell to 350 rubles per kilogram, and by the beginning of September returned to the highest level for the year. By the beginning of October, the cost of a kilogram has not changed.

In the meat department of the Moscow store

Sunflower oil

Sunflower oil prices in Russia are quite unstable. In early January, in Moscow, on the day of the “control purchase”, the cheapest oil cost 115 rubles per liter, after a month - already 119 rubles. But further prices began to decline - to 95 rubles in March. From this lowest level of the level, sunflower oil again rose: in April - up to 100 rubles per liter, and by the beginning of August - up to 105 rubles. More than a ruble there was more of its liter in early October. In Pskov, the sunflower oil, available in the store, rose by almost 23 percent in the first month of the year - from 70 to 86 rubles, but then, on the contrary, it became shameful - up to about 82 and a half rubles. In April, prices rose to 99 rubles, for May they again dropped sharply - to 67 rubles per liter, and in June again rose - to almost 80 rubles. At the same level (after a small decline in July), prices remained in August and September.

Sugar

Prices for white sugar in Russia practically did not change until April. In Moscow in the first quarter, they were at the level of 53–54 rubles per kilogram. But in early April, sugar in the capital has significantly went up - immediately 12 percent, almost to 61 and a half ruble per kilogram. At the same level, he remained by the end of the first half of the year. In July, sugar, on the contrary, fell by almost 10 percent, in August its price did not change, and in September it again fell very significantly - up to 41 and a half ruble per kilogram. About the same picture in Pskov, where the products are generally cheaper: from the beginning of January, by the end of March, white sugar fell from 43 to 38 rubles. Then the sugar rose again - almost to 39 and a half rubles, for May the prices did not change, and in June they rose sharply - more than 50 rubles per kilogram. Approximately at the same level, its cost remained in August, but for September, as in Moscow, a sharp fall was noted - up to less than 34 and a half rubles.

Milk

Milk prices (for their monitoring in Russia, Radio Liberty correspondents chose a long -term storage product with a fat content of 3.2 to 3.5 percent), show similar unstable dynamics. In Moscow, since the beginning of the year, its cost continued to slowly grow - a liter by early March has risen in price from 67 to 70 rubles. Then the increase in prices ceased and the milk even fell a little - by the beginning of May to 68 rubles. But then it again cherished sharply - immediately at 11 and a half percent, up to almost 76 rubles per liter. In June, prices did not change, and for July and August they again fell - up to about 57 rubles per liter. However, in September, a sharp increase in milk prices was noted - immediately in a third. In Pskov, milk in January, on the contrary, became cheaper - from 46 to 45 rubles, in February and March, prices have not changed. Then the liter suddenly fell into a price immediately by 20 percent - up to about 35 rubles, but according to the results of May, its price again rose to almost 46 and a half rubles. At the same level, the milk retained in June, but in July its price fell sharply - at once 20 percent, up to about 37 rubles per liter. In August, the price of milk jumped by almost 8 rubles, and then again decreased to the July level.

Potatoes

In the first half of the year, potato prices showed growth records, since the cheap crop of last year in stores finally ended, and the fresh product just started to go on sale. But then the seasonal drop in its value began. So, since the beginning of the year in Moscow, a kilogram of potatoes by the beginning of July has risen almost three and a half times - from 24 to 83 rubles. But then a fresh crop arrived. As a result, for July, potatoes prices collapsed by almost 60 percent by the previous month, up to 36 rubles per kilogram, and for August - up to less than 23 rubles. Another 3 rubles in the cost of a kilogram of potatoes lost in September. The situation is about the same in Pskov: in the first five months of the year, the potatoes there have risen more than three times there - almost 50 rubles. However, in June, the price of it fell by 20 percent immediately, for July - more than 30 percent, and for August by more than 43 percent - up to about 15 rubles per kilogram. By the beginning of October, the cost of potatoes in Pskov fell by the ruble.

Bread

But bread prices, as well as cheap beef, are still stable. For monitoring, Radio Liberty correspondents chose Borodinsky bread weighing 500 grams. At the same time, the dynamics of prices in two Russian cities is different: since the beginning of January in a month in Moscow, bread has risen in price from 27 to almost 29 rubles (by 5.9 percent), then its price did not change. In Pskov, for the first month of the year, bread, on the contrary, fell from 21 to a little more than 20 and a half rubles (minus 3.8 percent). But then prices recovered and still hold at the level of 21 rubles per loaf.

Breading department of the store in Moscow

Eggs

Chicken eggs are another product, prices for which are instability. In Moscow, the cost of a dozen in the “Selective” category in January decreased by more than 15 percent from 115 to 88 rubles, but by the beginning of March it increased again - to 97 rubles. Then a fall of up to 68 rubles per ten, and a new height - immediately up to 105 rubles. Approximately at the same level (104 rubles per ten), egg prices remained in May and June. For July, a dozen again added 3 rubles in the cost, and in August, on the contrary, he threw off 2 rubles. In September, its price has not changed. In Pskov, about the same picture: in the first month of the year, eggs fell from 64 to 55 and a half rubles (13.4 minutes), but for February they again rose sharply - almost 69 and a half rubles per dozen. Then a decrease in prices began - by early June, the cost of a dozen eggs decreased to a little more than 46 and a half rubles. By the beginning of July, they rose again - about two rubles, but by the end of the month they fell again - up to 45 and a half rubles per ten. For August, the price has not changed, and by the beginning of October it grew again - immediately by 40 percent.

Gasoline

Car fuel in Russia in the first half of the year continued to rise in price, regardless of the dynamics of oil prices. From the beginning of January, by the beginning of July, in Moscow, gas prices increased by 6 and a half percent - from 38 rubles 30 kopecks to 40 rubles 80 kopecks per liter. July was a pleasant exception: at the gas station that the Radio Liberty correspondent tracles, the cost of a liter of gasoline has not changed, at the same level it remained in August. But in September, a new, although small growth - up to 40 rubles 95 kopecks per liter. In Pskov, the rise in price of gasoline was less noticeable, but incessant: in the first half of the year, its price increased by 3.9 percent - from 38 rubles to about 39 rubles 50 kopecks per liter. Another 30 kopecks, or 0.7 percent, gasoline rose in July, but in August the increase in prices stopped. At the level of a little less than 39 rubles 80 kopecks per liter, its cost remained in September.

Official statistics

In September, in Russia, a decrease in consumer prices continued - after a record fall in August (at once by 0.5 percent), deflation in the country for the first month of autumn, according to Rosstat , amounted to 0.1 percent. Thus, in January - September, prices rose 1.7 percent, and in annual terms fell from 3.3 percent in August to 3 percent by the beginning of October. In September, as in the previous months of the third quarter, a decrease in prices was observed by a third of the observed types of food products.

A significant impact on the reduction in prices for food products, as Rosstat notes, still reversed of fruit and vegetable products. Thus, the prices of onions decreased by 21.7 percent, potatoes - by 18.9, carrots - by 18.4, white cabbage, beets, grapes, apples - by 7.8–16.6.6 percent.

Prices will rise again

The September small drop in prices occurred contrary to the forecasts of the authorities. In early September, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia , Maxim Oreshkin, said that the deflation wave in Russia against the background of already very cheaper fruit and vegetable products is coming to an end, inflation in September can be from 0.2 percent. “Yes, inflation can be lower than it was last September, but at the same time, the deflation wave, which began actively at the end of July, is coming to an end. The vegetables have already become a lot, the decrease itself is extremely borderline, therefore, as the vegetable group, inflation should return to the positive zone,” he predicted .

However, this month, apparently, consumer prices in the country will again grow. According to the same Ministry of Economic Development , monthly inflation in October will return to a positive area and will be from 0.2 to 0.3 percent. At the same time, the ministry’s documents notes: “With stable dynamics of the exchange rate of the ruble, the probability of the fact that inflation at the end of the year will be lower than the current forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia. The most likely range of inflation in December 2017 is estimated as 2.7–3.2 percent a year for the year.”

On October 12, the head of the Central Bank of Russia , Elvira Nabiullina, also stated that at the end of the year inflation in the country will be about 3.2 percent (and in the previous forecast of the Central Bank, its indicator was set within 3.5 to 3.8 percent).