The presidential campaign in Kyrgyzstan showed that democracy and administrative resource can exist peacefully

In Kyrgyzstan, one of the most resonant presidential elections in the history of the country was held. Waiting a second round of the confrontation between the pro-government candidate Uraoronbai Jeenbekov and the parliamentary opposition-businessman Omurbek Babanov should be disappointed: Zheenbekov won the first round with a result of 54.8 %.

The result may theoretically change: an automatic vote system has worked in the elections, and now they are counted manually (and can be considered up to 20 days). But even the main competitor of Jeenbekov does not believe in the probability of the second round. Babanov on Monday, October 16, at a special press conference, de facto recognized the election results and asked not to arrange protest rallies. In the Talas region, where Babanov scored more than 85 % of the vote, on Monday, according to some sources, more than three thousand people gathered on Monday (the Ministry of Internal Affairs believes that only 300) - but they allegedly did not nominate any demands, and in the evening almost all scattered home.

Despite the formal completion of the campaign, there are a lot of questions left. There are complaints to hold the elections - not everything can be called democratic there, and besides, it is difficult to predict how the political fate of Kyrgyzstan will develop further.

Lottery "2 of 11"

On the day of the election of violations, neither the CEC nor the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the country registered. Although they were: in the city of Osh in the south of Kyrgyzstan, for example, a journalist belonging to Omurbek Babanov, the NTS television channel was beaten while trying to get to the polling station.

“The police and athletes pushed me out. After that, about a dozen guys of sports physique in front of people pushed me in different directions and beat me on the kidneys, ”said Mirbek Iitikeev Radio Azattyk.

Many voters could not find themselves in the lists in the areas where they usually went. The country introduced a voting system on biometric data, and because of this, some people were redistributed to other areas: some simply did not manage to vote, running from one school to another. Biometry implied a certain automation: voices were considered a computer in an hour. This excluded the possibilities of stuffing and “carousels”, but did not exclude other factors. In the native village of Naronbai Jeenbekov, for example, absolutely everyone who came to the polling station voted for him, and there were no invalid ballots at all.

As a result, the ex-zootechnic, ex-battalist and ex-prime minister Jeenbekov won in five areas out of seven, only the Chui and Talas regions remained behind his competitor. In the last Babanov was born, so the number of votes for him reached astronomical 85 %. True, it was pointless: it was enough to win in the Osh region (the candidate from the authorities gained 73 %there) to block the entire result of Babanov. Moreover, the southerner of Jeenbekov won in Northern Bishkek. “It was quite obvious,” says Kyrgyz political scientist Seitek Kachkynbai. - In Bishkek, many budget organizations are concentrated plus structures with the status of ministries about forty. All employees have relatives who will do everything to preserve a warm place. ”

Actually, it was precisely at the expense of the administrative resource that Zheenbekov’s victory was achieved, said the expert in Central Asia, political scientist Arkady Dubnov. He recalls that one pressure on the voter was not done here. “It's hard to call the campaign honest,” says the political scientist. “The unprecedented factor in the intervention of the authorities in the pre -election process is not even so much agitation by the current president in favor of his favorite as the shielding of his main opponent and threats addressed to him.” Dubnov has in mind the constant hints of President Almazbek Atambayev that Omurbek Babanov is a protege of Kazakhstani oligarchs and Kazakhstan. On the election day, Atambayev said that he was “offered $ 20 million for Babanov’s support”, but he proudly refused. In fact, this is a direct violation of the rules of the election campaign, however, the headquarters of the opposition candidate was denied a complaint, since the president has “inviolability”, which means that he can say everything that he wants.

Now that the elections are over, Babanov hopes that all these words will be forgotten. Once, with the name of the opposition, two cases are connected - about the preparation of the coupling by his “supporters” and not yet begun, but an actively executed case of inciting national growth in the south of the country during the election campaign. Political scientist Kachkynbai hopes that no one will touch Babanov, because in the policy of Kyrgyzstan “there is such a tradition” - not to deal with competitors when they recognized their defeat. Arkady Dubnov also thinks that she can do without the implementation of Jeenbekov’s promise “start the fight against corruption” with Babanov, but much will depend on the opposition himself.

Man behind him

In general, the elected campaign was “three and a half on the five -point system,” Saeckes Kachkynbai believes. “If there was a second round, it would be even better,” says the political scientist. “But even the fact that the candidate from the authorities won barely, with such a small result, is, I think, a step forward.”

The inhabitants of Kyrgyzstan are not so unambiguous: after the election, the saying “Choose do not choose - you will win - the carrier will win”.

It is especially annoying how Almazbek Atambayev promoted his protege. But Zheenbekov will soon cease to be perceived by the creature of the previous president, the political scientist is sure. “A year later, he will already gain his team. In addition, he has very influential brothers, ”adds Kachkynbai. In Kyrgyzstan, this, along with a generic origin, is an additional skill of power.

But so far, Zheenbekov is a direct ally of Atambayev, and this is a problem. First of all, for the Kazakh-Kyrgyz relations: due to the sharp statements of the current president to the Kazakhstani colleague Nursultan Nazarbayev, Astana actually introduced the blockade of Kyrgyzstan on its borders. People stood in lines for five hours (one woman died), heavy trucks with perishable products - four days. Jeenbekov to rake all this, and he already seemed to begin: he called Kazakhstan “God with this neighbor”. After his victory in the elections, Jeenbekov congratulated Nursultan Nazarbayev with a telegram. This did not help the relationship at the border: at the Ak Tilek checkpoint on October 16, the cork from trucks stretched for six kilometers, and Kazakhstan, in addition to everything, banned the transport of dairy products from Kyrgyzstan, citing sanitary violations. Somewhere at that moment, Gennady Onishchenko burst into tears with emotion.

But in this case, not a lot depends on Jeenbekov. “If Atambaev still demonstrates his hostility to the Kazakhstani leadership not only until December 1 ( the date of the last working day of the current president. - V.P. ), but also interfere with the processes of reconciliation with Astana and after, then difficult times,” warns Arkady Dubnov. “Most likely, without mediation of Moscow, it will not do.” Vladimir Putin, as the Kyrgyz media noticed, sent a telegram with the congratulation of Jeenbekov the very first. Russia also has something to worry about: Almazbek Atambayev has already warned that he could collect an extraordinary meeting of the Eurasian Union in order to raise the question of what kind of union is in which some block others.

Actually, the further fate of Jeenbekov as the president will depend on the activity of Atambayev. Atambayev himself said that he was not going to occupy any posts, but this does not mean anything: he would want to remain. And then the Kyrgyz democracy, bright in its paradoxicality, will sparkle with new colors: if before the prime ministers fought with each other (there were three of them in the current election campaign), now the struggle can reach the level of confrontation of the presidents.

In the meantime, it can be stated that most of the inhabitants of Kyrgyzstan recognized the new president in Zheenbekov. At least, employees of government agencies are already thinking which portrait of the new leader of the country to hang in their offices. At the same time, no one is cleaning the banners from the streets. The probability of the second round, which is theoretically possible (suddenly a mandatory manual recalculation of votes will take five cherished percent of the result of Jeenbekov), no one believes. But this is still Kyrgyzstan: there is an administrative resource there, but still democracy.