Translated material
Elections are when Putin chooses
The Kremlin nevertheless decided not to let Alexei Navalny into the presidential election- the BBC reports with reference to a source in the presidential administration.
In the morning, the radio is turned on in the chamber. On the radio, they report that "after long consultations" in the Kremlin "they finally decided to prevent Navalny before the elections."
Here, even my cellmate laughs: what did they decide for everyone? And since they “decided”, it means that all this is about “prohibited by law”, because they could “solve” otherwise.
It is here that there is a basic discrepancy with the Kremlin and Putin. Not even corruption, but this.
“Elections” in our country is when one of the candidates decides which of the rivals he will allow him to fight https://t.co/gvlhvpqtlg
- Znak.com (@znak_com) October 18, 2017
If in the spring the authorities were thinking of allowing the opposition to the elections to create the illusion of their legitimacy and increase the turnout, now the head of the CEC Ella Pamfilova speaks out quite clearly: the existing criminal records do not allow to register Navalny as a candidate, is approved in the note of the BBC. Opponents of the opposition are gloating, but many commentators are in no hurry to believe in the finality of this decision.
Well, the "interlocutor in AP" openly says: there will be no Navalny. That is, open the headquarters, do not open, and the decision has already been made.
And by the way, it is not said somewhere, but on the BBC, so that all doubters read. EVERYWHERE.
Give the currency!
“The presidential administration will not go to any tricks and adjustment of legislation for a particular citizen,” the BBC interlocutor in the presidential administration says.
(And tomorrow Putin will say to allow, and the source will turn into a pumpkin)
The Kremlin made the next non -actual final decision regarding Navalny, but the incomplete final decision would be made later
There is a common (introduced by the Kremlin) Opinion: Navalny - the Kremlin agent. And all because the authorities do not want to plant him, as Khodorkovsky, at least for 5 years. Moreover, he is given to speak to supporters, to open headquarters, not without difficulties and provocations, but to conduct a pre -election campaign.
Another extreme-the authorities do not know what to do: first they will give a rally, and then they will put on 20 days. And all this because of the internal body of the towers and (Lee) unprofessionalism.
Both that and the other is incorrect. That happens to Navalny is a variant of a hybrid war, but only with civilian ones. The main thing in this Byzantine region is not to resolve the issue completely and irrevocably, but to hang the situation, exhausting the opponent.
The main thing is the lack of a final solution. Since this will change the political space, and it is also not clear which way. Plus the reaction of the same West is unknown. So the power strategy regarding Navalny is absolutely understandable-“neither peace nor war”, which allows you to maintain the status quo, and in these conditions this is equivalent to victory.
The decision on Navalny in AP is made. It is transferred to the category of canned food. But will he agree?
Putin, do not be afraid, you have 86%! Navalny must be allowed to the polls.
Is there anything to be afraid of Putin? If you believe the September survey of the Levada Center , 64% of Russians who are going to take part in the elections are ready to vote for it at least now. Inosmi publishes an article by James Wilson of Brussels Express, entitled " Does President Putin really enjoy the support of the company? ", Which analyzes the results of this survey:
The bulk of Putin's Team lives away from large city centers - in areas of the country with the most conservative population. Historically, these are those people who are attracted to his hard leadership style and the image of a “cool guy”.
But in all layers of Russian society, he enjoys the support of students, businessmen and pensioners who tend to believe that the country's elite acts in the interests of the country. In the media in the materials devoted to the celebration of his birthday, PR-command Putin tried to demonstrate the variety of the electorate supporting him and create the impression that the number of those who congratulated the president on his birthday exceeds the number of participating in street protests.
But, despite all this bustle of the Kremlin PR managers, the undoubted fact is that Russian citizens representing all layers of society and public classes - teachers, firefighters, lawyers, doctors and police - actively declare their sincere support for Putin.
While the opposition in Russia has nothing to offer the population, this Putin's Team, which is in a note, will be invincible. In order to enlist her support, now it is not even necessary to turn on the administrative resource - people who do not want changes and are afraid of them will go to vote for Putin or for the one he will appoint.
Today, it finally became known and the answer to the question of whether Ksenia Sobchak will nominate his candidacy. The day before, a meeting of the TV presenter with Vladimir Putin was reported that many perceived as an unambiguous confirmation of her future participation in the elections. Suspicions were confirmed: Sobchak said on the air of the rain that she would run for president. The full text of her statement is published by Vedomosti :
Contrary to the attempts of officials to compromise me and use for their own purposes, contrary to the attacks of some of my friends of the liberals, contrary to the speculations of sofa political scientists, my nomination can and should become useful for opposition and the whole society. <...>
On even more dramatic October days of the 93rd year, the legal way of the “active boycott” of the elections appeared in Russia, to which part of our opposition calls, the presidential decree was adopted on the introduction of the column “against all” in the elections of all levels in Russia.
This is a legal and completely peaceful tool for expressing civil dissatisfaction with the election procedure, the composition of the participants, and the irremovability of power. Many years ago, the authorities, treating elective law, depending on its tactical needs as with a breath, deprived us of this instrument. With my participation in the March presidential election, I want to return it. Ksenia Sobchak is in your ballot, this is the column “Against all”. Are you against the fact that for many years only Zyuganov, Yavlinsky, Putin and their faceless understudies and deputies on the list? Do you want to show your active position, but your candidate is not admitted to the elections? Do you have your candidate? Mark Sobchak. You do not choose her for president. You just get a legal and peaceful opportunity to say: “Enough! Got it! "
Most commentators are quite ready to see Sobchak among the candidates, but only on a par with Navalny, and criticize her for their willingness to act as a “spoiler”.
Sobchak announced that she was going to the polls. Your future: Putin, Sobchak, Zyuganov or Zhirinovsky. Choose! The main thing is not to sleep, just not to sleep
- Stalingulag (@stalingulag) October 18, 2017
If earlier Sobchak simply distracted the morons by TV, now she will distract the morons from Putin’s elections by the president
- #MDK (@mudakoff) October 18, 2017
Pretty inglorious end. She will not receive a protest electorate, she will only receive a reputation as a circus poodle like Bogdanov https://t.co/0op25vclqg
- Roman Dobrokhotov (@dobrokhotov) October 18, 2017
What an abomination. What is meanness. Sobchak will still run. And legitimizes vile elections. Abstract. And the meeting with Putin was agreed on the price to her, apparently. What an abomination. Stories about Ksenina meanness can be told by every not even second, but the first social girl in Moscow. But for sure everyone except me will have been put on again.
I always really liked Sobchak. She is smart. And very adequate. The problem now is that to start an election campaign - in accordance with her mind and position - she could only from one public statement: "I will only advance if they also allow Navalny." (The further would no longer matter: she would have become or would not whether they would allow Navalny or not, but then she would have left the situation with the reputation winner that would make her man of the Russia that she would like to represent). If she said: “I was offered - and I answered like this,” then it would be a “political” scenario. But since she began - this, of course, immediately lowers everything to the floor below. In the general streams of garbage.
Sobchak met with Putin ...
Remember, I told you that Ksenia Anatolyevna is a smart woman ... Now I will tell you how we will love her again ...
Scenario No. 1 - Navalny is not planted.
After some time (possibly even before the election), Ksenia Sobchak in an interview with someone (Zygarya, Super, Super Zygarya) will declare that being on the will of Alexei Navalny was her condition upon joining the presidential campaign of 2018. (Or she was promised that if she agrees ...). And she received the appropriate guarantees, and, as you see, they are respected ... And here from the AP from near Kiriyenko a leak will follow - yes, we say, we confirm - of course, the head of state, which does not interfere in the affairs of justice, did not give Ksenia Sobchak, but the theme of Navalny rose in their conversation.
And all! A wave of shame and repentance swept over you! That is, a woman (already, of course, Syrezov - Ksyusha) actually sacrificed herself, her reputation! And we, creatures, all this time stigmatized her with the last words! And Navalny would immediately be silent ... And maybe he will be apologized ...
Scenario No. 2 of Navalny is planted.
Everything is the same, but more drama in the voice and tears in the eyes - they, bitches, deceived me, but now, believe me, I am doing everything possible to free Lesha in the near future! (Navalny, of course, will not apologize from prison. But thank you for the trouble).
I have already said many times, the main claim to such a possible candidate is not at all that he crosses the road to Navalny, in any case, I have no such claim. Such a claim is not made to Grigory Alekseevich Yavlinsky, no matter how much he treat him. Why? And because Grigory Alekseevich is a politician, he has some kind of party, it has been working throughout the country for a long time, they have a program and political views and principles. You can agree with them or not, but this is a platform.
If a person who has never participated in the elections, who does not have a party (even, say, the growth party), nor the platform, nor a public organization, whose political activity is limited to a pair of performances at fashion rallies in vegetarian times, whose political program and, in fact, no one knows political views, half a year before the elections, can be put to the presidency - this can be regarded as if an attempt, but not as an attempt. Compose competition to Vladimir Putin or his candidate. All that is still in the asset with Ksenia Sobchak is her media fame. This, of course, is a lot, but in order to somehow speak in the elections (if we believe that the voices consider plus or minus honestly), more money and people are needed. So, someone must find and give these resources. Can anyone in our country finance and organize a candidate’s campaign without permission from the presidential administration? The answer, it seems to me, is obvious, we see how this happens to the Navalny campaign.
We have already passed all this with Prokhorov once. He had at least some party, and even the media. I presented the type of liberals in the elections.
I am not, so that "Sobchak does not get off", not at all. Everyone who, for some reason, wants to go to the presidency should be registered, both Sobchak, Yavlinsky, Navalny, and Putin, and someone. Then to observe, and the stimulus will be monitored and suppressed. But at the same time, we have PAVO to understand and talk about who every day conducts real work and struggle, risks health, relatives and sits in prison, whose volunteers and supporters throughout the country are subjected to repressions, who are not allowed to hold meetings, not to mention the performances in the media. And who has a desire to further increase their media fame, say, to twist Instagram.
To be seriously about Sobchak, I will say the following: in accordance with the constitution, everyone should be allowed (reaching 35 years of age, etc.). Therefore, the place of Navalny in the ballots.
But all this fuss, when Chichvarkin sends Sobchak Nah **, if she dares to advance, when Navalny arranges a hysteria, proving that he is the only candidate, and Ksyusha is a cannibal, they are deeply unsympathetic to me.
Even if the Kremlin asked her to do this to scatter Navalny's voices, then what? Is Aleksey Anatolyevich with his millionth army of supporters will not overcome some former leading “house-2” there? Now, if Buzova advanced in a dress from Aishat Kadyrova ... (sarcasm).
I demand to allow Alexei Navalny, Ksenia Sobchak, Evgeny Chichvarkin, Dmitry Gudkov, Grigory Yavlinsky and others
- Alexander Vinokurov (@vinokurov12) October 12, 2017
Probably, if the BBC did not lie about decisions at the top of Navalny and Sobchak, it will be approximately like this: dear Ksenia Anatolyevna, and you are not embarrassed by the fact that you are going to the elections in the conditions of an illegal ban on Navalny, both the sentences of which the European court recognized the European Court? - Moreover, there should be a candidate with the liberal agenda of the day ... - So there is already Yavlinsky? - In society, a clear request for new faces, to the emergence of new, young figures in the opposition, and the example of Navalny confirmed this ... (I translate: and not falling to you, Ksyukha, to fit in such a rotten alignment, you are not a bixation - this is now a marija)
As they write in various progressive publications: "And that's why it happened."
The increased activity of Ksenia Anatolyevna, I mean, and much related.
It is completely unambiguous and categorically said that Navalny will not participate in the 2018 elections. <...>
Accordingly, the public can canalize the protest potential in the next round of native dances around the cyclopean figure of the beloved leader Alexei Anatolyevich.
And [in vain to spend] ten more on this, I emphasize, years.
And it can realize this potential using all legal (equally illegal, but I would not advise) funds to achieve some changes in the situation for the better. At least through Sobchak, at least through anyone.
In the Kremlin, the Kremlin is generally ready for the dialogue. If the dialogue is not with [crazy], but few people are ready to dialogue with [crazy]. <...>
Therefore, if you have something to say, so that without fooling - welcome.
And if suddenly not - well, then no, this happens too. So these doors were not opened for you.
Sobchak may act in the presidential election unexpectedly successfully. Subject to the absence of Navalny and competent campaign in the elections
- Valery Solovy (@v_solovey) October 15, 2017
How much participation of Sobchak will help the Kremlin achieve their goals? "Spoilers" - outdated political technology, designed only for those who receive all the information from centralized sources, saysFedor Krasheninnikov in Vedomosti :
The technology for participating in the elections of a pseudo-optical candidate-spoler is born from the past information era, and this is its main problem. At a time when the communications between citizens and the political elite were carried out exclusively through the media, to introduce the convenient power of the “candidate from the opposition” as the main and even the only one, ignoring both all real candidates and the bewilderment of potential voters, which was a completely solved task - subject to monitoring the media, of course.
In conditions of new information reality, all this does not work: any voter has the widest opportunities to observe political processes and receive information from many sources, including directly from the politicians themselves. Therefore, in 2018, a situation in Russia is hardly possible in which an active and monitoring the development of the political situation in the country, a citizen who adheres to opposition views, will seriously perceive him as his candidate of the show business or some kind of print out of the 90s.
There is an opinion that in fact, Sobchak "moves" to the elections is not Putin at all. In anonymous telegram channels, conspiracy versions are developing and are expected from the president of a “software statement” at the Valdai Forum on October 19.
According to The New Times, the BBC news about the meeting of Sobchak with the president is very outdated and not entirely correct. The meeting of Putin and Sobchak took place on October 3. An interview for the film about Anatolia Sobchak is not a formal preposition, but real. And Putin did not bless Sobchak for presidential games, rather the opposite.
The 2018 elections have two scenarios. The first is called the "successor". The second is “transit”. As the source says, back in August, the president approved two concepts and instructed to conduct their preparation. “The president made it clear that he himself will make a choice later. But the deadline is not known to anyone. This will be only his personal decision. ”
The selection of the successor script has great chances
The successor project has been in work since the beginning of the summer of 2016. Even then, during the “Novgorod meetings”, the chief candidate for “successors” was determined - Dmitry Medvedev. Perhaps we are talking about 2011 agreements.
It is no coincidence that after that the campaign began and continues to discredit the head of government.
According to sources, today Medvedev retains the status of the main candidate in the "heirs". <...>
Наравне с Медведевым, в качестве «запасных» также рассматриваются кандидатуры Матвиенко (ее лоббируют группы Шойгу и Ковальчуков- Кириенко) и Дюмина ( лоббируют Ротенберги при поддержке Золотова-Чемезова). <...>
Проект «Преемник» активно продвигается бизнесменами в окружении Президента, заинтересованными в снятии санкций.
В то же время, проект « Транзит» разработан и продвигается новым руководством Администрации Президента. Он подразумевает постепенную и плавную передачу власти в течении 2018_2021 гг
По замыслу авторов проекта, Президент должен идти на выборы и выиграть их без привлечения олигархических кланов и иммитационного характера.
Избиратель должен понимать, что это выборы «последнего срока» и он должен дать мандат Президенту на обновление.
Проект «Транзит» сегодня подвергается массированной атаке.
Так, к противникам проекта «Транзит» относятся сторонники «мобилизации избирателей». Проекты Навального/Собчак-все тут. Идею выдвижения Собчак связывают с инициативой Ротенбергов- Нарусовой. Собчак должна выступит как альтернатива Навального и кандидат оппозиции. При этом выдвижение Собчак должно решать две задачи. Первое- продемонстрировать конфликт традиционного избирателя и либерала. Второе- должно запустить «иммитационный сценарий» с привлечением традиционного аппаратного ресурса.
Для Кремля важно не дать запустить «иммитационный сценарий». Кремлю необходима чистая и признаваемая легитимность нового срока Президента, который не имеет обязательств перед своим ближайшем окружением и аппаратным ресурсом, у которого развязаны руки.
Выбор в пользу сценария "Преемник" подразумевает невозможность существования некоторых групп после его реализации, так как логика власти и человеческая реакция требует контрдействий за атаки на ДАМ и то, как они были совершены.
...
С "Транзитом" более или менее ясно, все последние действия ВВ больше соответствуют этому сценарию.
...
А теперь представим, что Кремль решился на третий сценарий под названием "Реформа", который изменит конституционные основы, заложенные в 1993 году. Такой поворот событий поглотит варианты и "Преемник" и "Транзит".
...
Ждем выступления ВВ на Валдайском клубе в четверг. Песков анонсировал "важное заявление" Президента. Логично, что он скажет о завершении войны в Сирии, но традиционно на Валдайском мероприятии он рассуждает о мироустройстве, так что мы можем услышать и больше, чем о мире и войне.
Дмитрий Дризе в газете "Коммерсантъ" предполагает, что заявление Путина на Валдайском форуме будет рассчитано в основном на иностранную аудиторию, так что скорее всего речь пойдет в основном не о выборах:
...Крайне важно, чтобы на Западе понимали: после президентских выборов Россия будет не охранительным государством, а, наоборот, прогрессивным и реформаторским. Нельзя исключать, что Путин – так же, как в свое время Трамп, – декларирует намерение улучшать отношения с США и лично с их президентом.
Официального объявления о вступлении Путина в президентскую кампанию в рамках «Валдая» ждать не стоит, иностранцы для этого — не та аудитория. Но основные предвыборные тезисы главного кремлевского кандидата участникам клуба представят.
Это будет очень симпатичная во всех отношениях программа. Здесь и цифровизация, и протянутая рука Западу, и даже — очень возможно — альтернативный независимый оппозиционный участник выборов.
Главное, чтобы иностранцы все это поняли и поверили. Если да, то можно ждать небольшой оттепели. А если нет – уж как получится.
Об одном из "кандидатов в наследники", бывшем охраннике Путина Алексее Дюмине, пишет Олег Кашин в платном разделе Republic :
Алексей Дюмин сегодня – единственный российский политик, чей политический потенциал существует прежде всего в сознании людей, его обсуждающих, а сам он за неполные два года публичного присутствия во власти ни разу не дал вообще никаких оснований думать, что у него есть какие-то персональные амбиции. Войдя в историю первым телохранителем, получившим власть в целом регионе, он может войти в историю и как первый виртуальный преемник, которого придумали себе люди, уставшие от таинственности и неопределенности послепутинского будущего России.
Не согласна с этой оценкой политолог Марина Литвинович :
Кашин ошибается в выводах и в заголовке.
Как бы то ни было, представить себе Ксению Собчак на президентском посту комментаторам еще сложнее - как и кого-либо кроме Путина.
Президентом России не может быть Собчак, потому что у Путина фамилия - не Собчак
— Sergey Rubtsov (@serg_rubtsov) 18 октября 2017 г.
Тоской по украденным выборам делится Кирилл Шулика :
Мы в принципе многого не просим. Более того, то, что мы просим это вообще слезы в любой нормальной стране. Мы хотим, чтобы участие в выборах определялось Конституцией и законами, а не Кремлем и озвучивалось бы при этом прикормленными политологами и Памфиловой, у которой вырастит борода. Все, больше ничего не надо! Пусть Навальный наберет 1%, это неважно совсем. Важно появление кандидата, который бы пошел в президенты не по воле Кремля (Гудкова мы пустим, Навального нет), а по воле избирателей и Конституции. Я громко скажу, но это чистая правда - если это случится, мы проснемся в другой стране. Это важнейшая цель и для ее достижения надо бороться. Не знаю, боролся бы я лично за Навального в условиях нормальных выборов, но вот за то, чтобы билеты на выборы не покупали в Кремле, я бороться готов.
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Alya Ponomareva
Social Networks Editor Radio Liberty